Celtic vs Motherwell prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Motherwell vs Celtic, 2026-10-11, Scottish Premiership, kickoff 14:00 Athens time

stadiumSCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP•11:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Motherwell

VS11:00 GMT

Celtic

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.44

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

67%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

64%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 MotherwellX2 Celtic

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Motherwell (1)	19.4%	18.8%	5.32	trending_down-0.6 pp
Draw (X)	20.2%	19.6%	5.10	trending_down-0.6 pp
Celtic (2)	60.4%	61.6%	1.62	trending_up+1.2 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Over 2.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Indicative odds: 1.42

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Motherwell 1 - 2 Celtic

PROBABILITY

9.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Motherwell

21%4.784.90

Draw

21%4.824.70

Celtic

58%1.711.57

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Motherwell or draw

42%2.40—

Celtic or draw

79%1.26—

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.26—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.16—

Under 1.5 goals

14%7.15—

Over 2.5 goals

67%1.50—

Under 2.5 goals

33%3.01—

Over 3.5 goals

45%2.22—

Under 3.5 goals

55%1.82—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

64%1.57—

Not both score (NG)

36%2.75—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Motherwell

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 7-10

DWLLL

LADundee1-2

LHAberdeen0-4

LARangers0-1

WHDundee United3-0

DASt Mirren3-3

Celtic

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 4-8

WWLLL

LHRangers0-1

LHFerencvaros1-3

LARangers0-3

WASt Johnstone1-0

WASt Mirren2-1

Head-to-head

2026-05-13

Motherwell2 - 3Celtic

2026-03-14

Celtic3 - 1Motherwell

2025-12-30

Motherwell2 - 0Celtic

2025-10-05

Celtic3 - 2Motherwell

2025-02-02

Motherwell1 - 3Celtic

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Team comparison

Motherwell

VS

Celtic

#171 ▼3Power Index 42.5

Power Ranking

#44 ▲1Power Index 65.3

€16m5th in the league

Squad value

€123m2nd in the league

Alfred Johanssonsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 1.13 pts/game

Head coach

Martin O'Neillsince 5 Jan 2026 · 42 games · 2.29 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

21%Market 19%

Draw (X)

21%Market 19%

Away win (2)

58%Market 62% -4

Over 2.5 goals

67%Market: —

Both teams to score

64%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 2.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Motherwell 1 - 2 Celtic (9.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 29.6%
2. 1 - 18.8%
3. 0 - 27.7%
4. 0 - 17.0%
5. 1 - 37.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Celtic

Goals scored by Motherwell

01234503.27.07.75.63.11.314.08.89.67.03.81.722.55.56.04.42.41.031.12.32.51.81.00.440.30.70.80.60.30.150.10.20.20.10.10.0

Next matches of Motherwell

25/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeHeart of Midlothian

28/10/2026 · SCO.1AwaySt Johnstone

31/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeSt Mirren

Next matches of Celtic

25/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayHibernian

28/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeDundee United

1/11/2026 · SCO.1AwayFalkirk

Our model gives Motherwell win 21%, draw 21%, Celtic win 58%. over 2.5 goals 67%. both teams to score 64%. expected goals 1.25 - 2.19. largest gap to the market: Celtic win (4 points). Estimates, not guarantees.