Lazio vs Monza prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Lazio vs Monza, 2026-10-11, Italian Serie A, kickoff 16:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•13:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Lazio

VS13:00 GMT

Monza

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.82

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

54%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 LazioX2 Monza

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Lazio (1)	56.3%	54%	1.85	trending_down-2.4 pp
Draw (X)	24.4%	25%	4.00	trending_up+0.6 pp
Monza (2)	19.3%	21%	4.76	trending_up+1.7 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lazio 1 - 0 Monza

PROBABILITY

10.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.6Exp. cards 4.3

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lazio

57%1.761.65

Draw

23%4.283.80

Monza

20%5.084.80

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lazio or draw

80%1.25—

Monza or draw

43%2.32—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.30—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

78%1.291.20

Under 1.5 goals

22%4.453.90

Over 2.5 goals

54%1.871.77

Under 2.5 goals

46%2.152.05

Over 3.5 goals

31%3.202.70

Under 3.5 goals

69%1.451.40

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.89—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.13—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

59%1.691.40

Under 7.5 corners

41%2.452.70

Over 8.5 corners

48%2.101.75

Under 8.5 corners

52%1.911.95

Over 9.5 corners

37%2.722.25

Under 9.5 corners

63%1.581.55

Over 10.5 corners

27%3.653.05

Under 10.5 corners

73%1.381.30

Over 11.5 corners

20%5.10—

Under 11.5 corners

80%1.24—

Over 12.5 corners

14%7.37—

Under 12.5 corners

86%1.16—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.10—

Under 1.5 cards

9%11.44—

Over 2.5 cards

79%1.27—

Under 2.5 cards

21%4.71—

Over 3.5 cards

61%1.641.60

Under 3.5 cards

39%2.572.20

Over 4.5 cards

42%2.362.35

Under 4.5 cards

58%1.731.50

Over 5.5 cards

26%3.80—

Under 5.5 cards

74%1.36—

Over 6.5 cards

15%6.69—

Under 6.5 cards

85%1.18—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER46%

add_circleLazio

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.88

BUILDER37%

add_circleLazio

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.30

BUILDER36%

add_circleLazio

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.44

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lazio

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 11-6

WDWWD

DHJuve Stabia3-3

WHArezzo2-0

WAVenezia2-0

DHAC Milan2-2

WAUdinese2-1

Monza

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-10

DLWLD

DABrest2-2

LHCremonese2-3

WHSassuolo2-1

LALecce2-3

DAParma1-1

Head-to-head

2025-02-09

Lazio5 - 1Monza

2024-11-10

Monza0 - 1Lazio

2024-05-04

Monza2 - 2Lazio

2023-09-23

Lazio1 - 1Monza

2023-04-02

Monza0 - 2Lazio

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Team comparison

Lazio

VS

Monza

#57 ▲5Power Index 61.1

Power Ranking

#169 ▲3Power Index 42.8

€262m9th in the league

Squad value

€113m19th in the league

Gennaro Gattusosince 23 Jun 2026 · 8 games · 2.38 pts/game

Head coach

Ivan Jurićsince 1 Jul 2026 · 8 games · 1.25 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

57%Market 58%

Draw (X)

23%Market 23%

Away win (2)

20%Market 18%

Over 2.5 goals

54%Market 54%

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.8 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lazio 1 - 0 Monza (10.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 010.9%
2. 1 - 110.8%
3. 2 - 010.0%
4. 2 - 19.9%
5. 3 - 06.1%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Monza

Goals scored by Lazio

01234506.05.92.91.00.20.0110.910.85.31.70.40.1210.09.94.91.60.40.136.16.03.01.00.20.042.82.81.40.40.10.051.01.00.50.20.00.0

Next matches of Lazio

24/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeParma

27/10/2026 · ITA.1AwaySassuolo

1/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeCagliari

Next matches of Monza

23/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayTorino

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeNapoli

31/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayBologna

Our model gives Lazio win 57%, draw 23%, Monza win 20%. over 2.5 goals 54%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 1.83 - 0.99. largest gap to the market: Monza win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.