Arouca vs Estrela prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Arouca vs Estrela, 2026-10-11, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 22:30 Athens time

stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•19:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Arouca

VS19:30 GMT

Estrela

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.69

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

50%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

54%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 9.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

63%

ODDS

1.70

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AroucaX2 Estrela

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Arouca (1)	45.9%	43.8%	2.28	trending_down-2.1 pp
Draw (X)	27.3%	27.3%	3.67	trending_flat+0.0 pp
Estrela (2)	26.9%	29%	3.45	trending_up+2.1 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK63%

Under 9.5 corners

Expected corners: Arouca 4.9, Estrela 3.7, total 8.6 (line 9.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: Arouca x0.79, Estrela x0.78 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.70

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Arouca 1 - 1 Estrela

PROBABILITY

12.0%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.7Exp. cards 5.1

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Arouca

47%2.142.05

Draw

26%3.863.45

Estrela

27%3.663.50

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Arouca or draw

73%1.38—

Estrela or draw

53%1.88—

Either team wins (no draw)

74%1.35—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

75%1.331.25

Under 1.5 goals

25%4.063.45

Over 2.5 goals

50%1.981.83

Under 2.5 goals

50%2.021.92

Over 3.5 goals

28%3.512.90

Under 3.5 goals

72%1.401.35

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

54%1.85—

Not both score (NG)

46%2.17—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

60%1.681.30

Under 7.5 corners

40%2.483.15

Over 8.5 corners

48%2.081.58

Under 8.5 corners

52%1.932.25

Over 9.5 corners

37%2.682.02

Under 9.5 corners

63%1.591.70

Over 10.5 corners

28%3.602.65

Under 10.5 corners

72%1.381.40

Over 11.5 corners

20%5.02—

Under 11.5 corners

80%1.25—

Over 12.5 corners

14%7.23—

Under 12.5 corners

86%1.16—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 2.5 cards

13%7.89—

Over 3.5 cards

74%1.35—

Under 3.5 cards

26%3.90—

Over 4.5 cards

58%1.73—

Under 4.5 cards

42%2.36—

Over 5.5 cards

41%2.46—

Under 5.5 cards

59%1.69—

Over 6.5 cards

26%3.81—

Under 6.5 cards

74%1.36—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER37%

add_circleArouca

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.47

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Arouca

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 5-7

LWDLD

DASporting CP2-2

LHSanta Clara1-2

DAEstoril0-0

WHMaritimo2-1

LAFC Porto0-2

Estrela

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 10-10

WDWDL

LHAcadémico de Viseu0-2

DARio Ave3-3

WHBraga2-1

DHFC Famalicao2-2

WAC.D. Nacional3-2

Head-to-head

2026-04-19

Arouca1 - 0Estrela

2025-12-07

Estrela3 - 1Arouca

2025-04-19

Arouca1 - 0Estrela

2024-12-09

Estrela2 - 1Arouca

2024-05-05

Arouca0 - 0Estrela

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Arouca

VS

Estrela

#133 ▲7Power Index 48.1

Power Ranking

#191 ▲4Power Index 39.3

€31m11th in the league

Squad value

€45m8th in the league

Vítor Severino NEWsince 4 Oct 2026 · 2 games · 3.00 pts/game

Head coach

Pepasince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

47%Market 47%

Draw (X)

26%Market 27%

Away win (2)

27%Market 26%

Over 2.5 goals

50%Market 51%

Both teams to score

54%Market: —

Expected goals

1.6 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Arouca 1 - 1 Estrela (12.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.0%
2. 1 - 010.5%
3. 2 - 19.3%
4. 2 - 08.2%
5. 0 - 17.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Estrela

Goals scored by Arouca

01234506.87.74.41.60.50.1110.512.06.82.60.70.228.29.35.32.00.60.134.34.82.71.00.30.141.71.91.10.40.10.050.50.60.30.10.00.0

Next matches of Arouca

24/10/2026 · POR.1AwayAlverca

1/11/2026 · POR.1HomeC.D. Nacional

6/11/2026 · POR.1AwayFC Famalicao

Next matches of Estrela

24/10/2026 · POR.1HomeCasa Pia

31/10/2026 · POR.1AwayMoreirense

8/11/2026 · POR.1HomeBenfica

Our model gives Arouca win 47%, draw 26%, Estrela win 27%. over 2.5 goals 50%. both teams to score 54%. expected goals 1.56 - 1.14. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.