About AI Goal Lab and how our predictions are made

Who is behind it

AI Goal Lab is an independent football analytics project. The picks are produced by a statistical process that runs the same way every day. Nobody picks teams by feel.

We are not a bookmaker and we do not take bets. We do not guarantee any result.

Where the numbers come from

Team strength comes from match results, expected goals (xG) and ratings. We turn it into a score distribution with a Dixon-Coles Poisson model, the standard open method for football scores.

We blend the model with the market. The market is the strongest single predictor, so it carries most of the weight. The model adds a small correction.

Bookmaker odds are read from public sources. Sharp prices (Pinnacle, Betfair) are the reference when they exist.

How a pick is chosen

For each match we compute probabilities for 1X2, double chance, over/under goals, both teams to score, corners and cards. We keep one pick per match: the market where our probability is high and the odds are still worth taking.

A pick needs a minimum price and must not disagree too much with the market. If nothing passes, we publish nothing for that match.

Before publishing we check team news (injuries, suspensions, goalkeepers). A pick with a serious absence is flagged or removed.

Track record

Every pick is recorded before kick-off. Every result is published, wins and losses. The performance page is computed automatically from settled picks.

What we do not claim

Probabilities are estimates, never certainties. A 70% pick still loses three times in ten. Past results do not promise future results.

Nothing here is financial or betting advice. 18+ only. If gambling stops being fun, read our responsible gambling page.