AC Milan vs Sassuolo prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Sassuolo vs AC Milan, 2026-10-11, Italian Serie A, kickoff 19:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•16:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Sassuolo

VS16:00 GMT

AC Milan

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.86

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

55%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

56%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 SassuoloX2 AC Milan

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Sassuolo (1)	23%	23.4%	4.28	trending_flat+0.4 pp
Draw (X)	25.9%	25.3%	3.95	trending_down-0.6 pp
AC Milan (2)	51.1%	51.3%	1.95	trending_flat+0.2 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Sassuolo 1 - 1 AC Milan

PROBABILITY

11.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.5Exp. cards 3.8

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sassuolo

24%4.204.00

Draw

24%4.133.55

AC Milan

52%1.921.80

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Sassuolo or draw

48%2.08—

AC Milan or draw

76%1.31—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

78%1.281.20

Under 1.5 goals

22%4.603.90

Over 2.5 goals

55%1.831.75

Under 2.5 goals

45%2.202.10

Over 3.5 goals

32%3.112.65

Under 3.5 goals

68%1.471.45

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

56%1.79—

Not both score (NG)

44%2.26—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

58%1.711.45

Under 7.5 corners

42%2.402.45

Over 8.5 corners

47%2.141.90

Under 8.5 corners

53%1.881.80

Over 9.5 corners

36%2.782.45

Under 9.5 corners

64%1.561.45

Over 10.5 corners

27%3.76—

Under 10.5 corners

73%1.36—

Over 11.5 corners

19%5.27—

Under 11.5 corners

81%1.23—

Over 12.5 corners

13%7.64—

Under 12.5 corners

87%1.15—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

88%1.14—

Under 1.5 cards

12%8.25—

Over 2.5 cards

72%1.391.33

Under 2.5 cards

28%3.572.90

Over 3.5 cards

52%1.921.82

Under 3.5 cards

48%2.091.88

Over 4.5 cards

33%3.01—

Under 4.5 cards

67%1.50—

Over 5.5 cards

19%5.25—

Under 5.5 cards

81%1.24—

Over 6.5 cards

10%9.91—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER42%

add_circleAC Milan

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.08

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Sassuolo

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 9-8

WWDWL

LAMonza1-2

WHJuventus3-2

DABologna2-2

WHFrosinone1-1

WHTorino2-1

AC Milan

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 8-5

WDDLW

WHLecce3-0

LHBenfica0-2

DALazio2-2

DAJuventus1-1

WHVenezia2-0

Head-to-head

2026-05-03

Sassuolo2 - 0AC Milan

2025-12-14

AC Milan2 - 2Sassuolo

2024-12-03

AC Milan6 - 1Sassuolo

2024-04-14

Sassuolo3 - 3AC Milan

2023-12-30

AC Milan1 - 0Sassuolo

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Team comparison

Sassuolo

VS

AC Milan

#124 ▼4Power Index 49.2

Power Ranking

#37 ▲5Power Index 67.2

€219m11th in the league

Squad value

€503m4th in the league

Alberto Aquilanisince 12 Jun 2026 · 9 games · 1.56 pts/game

Head coach

Ruben Amorimsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

24%Market 22%

Draw (X)

24%Market 25%

Away win (2)

52%Market 53%

Over 2.5 goals

55%Market 55%

Both teams to score

56%Market: —

Expected goals

1.1 - 1.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Sassuolo 1 - 1 AC Milan (11.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.1%
2. 0 - 110.0%
3. 1 - 29.7%
4. 0 - 28.8%
5. 1 - 06.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AC Milan

Goals scored by Sassuolo

01234505.710.08.85.12.20.816.411.19.75.72.50.923.56.25.43.21.40.531.32.32.01.20.50.240.40.60.60.30.10.050.10.10.10.10.00.0

Next matches of Sassuolo

24/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayComo

27/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeLazio

2/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeFiorentina

Next matches of AC Milan

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayUdinese

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeBologna

31/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeInternazionale

Our model gives Sassuolo win 24%, draw 24%, AC Milan win 52%. over 2.5 goals 55%. both teams to score 56%. expected goals 1.11 - 1.75. largest gap to the market: Sassuolo win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.