FC Utrecht vs Willem II prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: FC Utrecht vs Willem II, 2026-10-11, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 13:15 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•10:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

FC Utrecht

VS10:15 GMT

Willem II

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.26

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

63%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 FC UtrechtX2 Willem II

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
FC Utrecht (1)	63.3%	62.3%	1.60	trending_down-1.0 pp
Draw (X)	20.2%	20.5%	4.88	trending_flat+0.3 pp
Willem II (2)	16.5%	17.2%	5.83	trending_up+0.6 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

FC Utrecht 2 - 1 Willem II

PROBABILITY

9.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.2Exp. cards 2.8

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

FC Utrecht

63%1.591.46

Draw

20%4.974.33

Willem II

17%5.886.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

FC Utrecht or draw

83%1.211.12

Willem II or draw

37%2.692.50

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.251.20

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

84%1.191.12

Under 1.5 goals

16%6.246.00

Over 2.5 goals

63%1.581.47

Under 2.5 goals

37%2.732.60

Over 3.5 goals

41%2.432.10

Under 3.5 goals

59%1.701.66

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

59%1.711.57

Not both score (NG)

41%2.412.25

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

75%1.341.22

Under 7.5 corners

25%3.934.00

Over 8.5 corners

64%1.551.40

Under 8.5 corners

36%2.822.75

Over 9.5 corners

54%1.861.66

Under 9.5 corners

46%2.172.10

Over 10.5 corners

43%2.302.10

Under 10.5 corners

57%1.771.66

Over 11.5 corners

34%2.962.62

Under 11.5 corners

66%1.511.44

Over 12.5 corners

25%3.933.75

Under 12.5 corners

75%1.341.25

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

75%1.33—

Under 1.5 cards

25%4.04—

Over 2.5 cards

52%1.93—

Under 2.5 cards

48%2.07—

Over 3.5 cards

30%3.30—

Under 3.5 cards

70%1.43—

Over 4.5 cards

16%6.44—

Under 4.5 cards

84%1.18—

Over 5.5 cards

7%13.52—

Under 5.5 cards

93%1.08—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%

add_circleFC Utrecht or draw

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.86

BUILDER46%

add_circleEither team wins (no draw)

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.99

BUILDER45%

add_circleFC Utrecht

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.88

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

FC Utrecht

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-18

DLDWL

LAFeyenoord Rotterdam0-5

WAExcelsior2-1

DHGo Ahead Eagles3-3

LHPSV Eindhoven1-6

DASparta Rotterdam3-3

Willem II

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 4-12

DLDLL

LHFortuna Sittard0-1

LAAjax Amsterdam1-5

DAAZ Alkmaar1-1

LHExcelsior0-3

DHHeerenveen2-2

Head-to-head

2025-03-09

Willem II2 - 3FC Utrecht

2024-09-21

FC Utrecht3 - 2Willem II

2022-05-15

Willem II3 - 0FC Utrecht

2021-10-31

FC Utrecht5 - 1Willem II

2021-05-01

FC Utrecht3 - 2Willem II

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Team comparison

FC Utrecht

VS

Willem II

#138 ▲3Power Index 47.5

Power Ranking

#240 ▼2Power Index 30.2

€65m6th in the league

Squad value

€24m13th in the league

Anthony Correiasince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.22 pts/game

Head coach

John Stegemansince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.56 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

63%Market 65%

Draw (X)

20%Market 19%

Away win (2)

17%Market 16%

Over 2.5 goals

63%Market 65%

Both teams to score

59%Market: —

Expected goals

2.2 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: FC Utrecht 2 - 1 Willem II (9.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.8%
2. 2 - 09.2%
3. 1 - 19.0%
4. 1 - 08.4%
5. 3 - 17.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Willem II

Goals scored by FC Utrecht

01234503.84.12.20.80.20.018.49.04.81.70.50.129.29.85.21.90.50.136.87.23.81.40.40.143.74.02.10.80.20.051.61.70.90.30.10.0

Next matches of FC Utrecht

24/10/2026 · NED.1HomePEC Zwolle

1/11/2026 · NED.1AwayTelstar

8/11/2026 · NED.1HomeNEC Nijmegen

Next matches of Willem II

24/10/2026 · NED.1HomeSC Cambuur

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayPSV Eindhoven

6/11/2026 · NED.1HomePEC Zwolle

Our model gives FC Utrecht win 63%, draw 20%, Willem II win 17%. over 2.5 goals 63%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 2.20 - 1.06. largest gap to the market: FC Utrecht win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.