SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04, 2026-10-11, German Bundesliga, kickoff 18:30 Athens time

stadiumGERMAN BUNDESLIGA•15:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

SC Freiburg

VS15:30 GMT

Schalke 04

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.98

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

57%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

55%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.52

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 SC FreiburgX2 Schalke 04

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
SC Freiburg (1)	58.3%	54.7%	1.83	trending_down-3.6 pp
Draw (X)	24.1%	24.3%	4.11	trending_flat+0.3 pp
Schalke 04 (2)	17.6%	21%	4.76	trending_up+3.4 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 65%.

Odds: 1.52

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Schalke 04

PROBABILITY

10.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.4Exp. cards 3.8

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

SC Freiburg

59%1.691.59

Draw

22%4.513.85

Schalke 04

19%5.345.25

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

SC Freiburg or draw

81%1.23—

Schalke 04 or draw

41%2.45—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.28—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

80%1.251.16

Under 1.5 goals

20%5.014.40

Over 2.5 goals

57%1.751.63

Under 2.5 goals

43%2.332.25

Over 3.5 goals

35%2.882.45

Under 3.5 goals

65%1.531.52

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

55%1.82—

Not both score (NG)

45%2.23—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

68%1.471.35

Under 7.5 corners

32%3.122.80

Over 8.5 corners

57%1.761.70

Under 8.5 corners

43%2.322.02

Over 9.5 corners

46%2.182.20

Under 9.5 corners

54%1.851.60

Over 10.5 corners

36%2.802.90

Under 10.5 corners

64%1.561.33

Over 11.5 corners

27%3.73—

Under 11.5 corners

73%1.37—

Over 12.5 corners

19%5.14—

Under 12.5 corners

81%1.24—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

88%1.14—

Under 1.5 cards

12%8.33—

Over 2.5 cards

72%1.381.42

Under 2.5 cards

28%3.602.55

Over 3.5 cards

52%1.912.02

Under 3.5 cards

48%2.101.70

Over 4.5 cards

34%2.98—

Under 4.5 cards

66%1.50—

Over 5.5 cards

19%5.20—

Under 5.5 cards

81%1.24—

Over 6.5 cards

10%9.78—

Under 6.5 cards

90%1.11—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER40%

add_circleSC Freiburg

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.21

BUILDER36%

add_circleSC Freiburg

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.41

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

SC Freiburg

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 16-5

WWWDW

WHFC Luzern4-2

DAEintracht Frankfurt2-2

WHBorussia Mönchengladbach5-0

WASC Paderborn 071-0

WHWerder Bremen4-1

Schalke 04

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 9-3

DWDWW

WAAustria Lustenau1-0

WARW Oberhausen5-2

DHSV Elversberg0-0

WA1. FC Union Berlin3-1

DHBayern Munich0-0

Head-to-head

2023-04-23

SC Freiburg4 - 0Schalke 04

2022-10-30

Schalke 040 - 2SC Freiburg

2021-04-17

SC Freiburg4 - 0Schalke 04

2020-12-16

Schalke 040 - 2SC Freiburg

2020-06-27

SC Freiburg4 - 0Schalke 04

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Team comparison

SC Freiburg

VS

Schalke 04

#49 ▲1Power Index 63.0

Power Ranking

#162 ▲1Power Index 43.9

€244m8th in the league

Squad value

€75m16th in the league

Julian Schustersince 1 Jul 2024 · 101 games · 1.72 pts/game

Head coach

Miron Muslicsince 31 May 2025 · 43 games · 1.88 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

59%Market 60%

Draw (X)

22%Market 23%

Away win (2)

19%Market 16% +3

Over 2.5 goals

57%Market 59%

Both teams to score

55%Market: —

Expected goals

2.0 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Schalke 04 (10.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.1%
2. 1 - 010.0%
3. 2 - 110.0%
4. 2 - 09.8%
5. 3 - 16.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Schalke 04

Goals scored by SC Freiburg

01234505.15.22.60.90.20.0110.010.15.11.70.40.129.810.05.01.70.40.136.46.53.31.10.30.143.13.21.60.50.10.051.21.30.60.20.10.0

Next matches of SC Freiburg

25/10/2026 · GER.1HomeBayern Munich

31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Augsburg

8/11/2026 · GER.1Home1. FC Union Berlin

Next matches of Schalke 04

24/10/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Cologne

31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeRB Leipzig

8/11/2026 · GER.1AwayTSG Hoffenheim

Our model gives SC Freiburg win 59%, draw 22%, Schalke 04 win 19%. over 2.5 goals 57%. both teams to score 55%. expected goals 1.96 - 1.01. largest gap to the market: Schalke 04 win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.