Deportivo vs Real Sociedad prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Real Sociedad vs Deportivo, 2026-10-11, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 17:15 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•14:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Real Sociedad

VS14:15 GMT

Deportivo

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.89

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

55%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Real SociedadX2 Deportivo

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Real Sociedad (1)	59.4%	53.8%	1.86	trending_down-5.6 pp
Draw (X)	23.3%	25.1%	3.99	trending_up+1.8 pp
Deportivo (2)	17.3%	21.2%	4.73	trending_up+3.8 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Deportivo

PROBABILITY

10.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Real Sociedad

61%1.651.61

Draw

22%4.524.10

Deportivo

17%5.755.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Real Sociedad or draw

83%1.21—

Deportivo or draw

40%2.53—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.28—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.271.20

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.714.00

Over 2.5 goals

55%1.811.75

Under 2.5 goals

45%2.242.10

Over 3.5 goals

33%3.042.65

Under 3.5 goals

67%1.491.45

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.90—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.12—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER50%

add_circleReal Sociedad

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.84

BUILDER40%

add_circleReal Sociedad

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.38

BUILDER38%

add_circleReal Sociedad

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.33

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Real Sociedad

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-9

DWLLW

WAValencia3-2

LHAFC Bournemouth1-2

LHAtlético Madrid0-3

WAElche3-2

DHCelta Vigo0-0

Deportivo

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 8-6

WWDLD

DHReal Betis1-1

LHSevilla0-1

DAGetafe1-1

WAVillarreal3-2

WHValencia3-1

Head-to-head

2018-02-02

Real Sociedad5 - 0Deportivo

2017-09-10

Deportivo2 - 4Real Sociedad

2017-04-23

Real Sociedad1 - 0Deportivo

2016-12-05

Deportivo5 - 1Real Sociedad

2016-01-16

Real Sociedad1 - 1Deportivo

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Team comparison

Real Sociedad

VS

Deportivo

#46 ▲3Power Index 64.6

Power Ranking

#108Power Index 51.6

€292m5th in the league

Squad value

€125m12th in the league

Pellegrino Matarazzosince 21 Dec 2025 · 37 games · 1.65 pts/game

Head coach

Antonio Hidalgosince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.76 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

61%Market 61%

Draw (X)

22%Market 23%

Away win (2)

17%Market 17%

Over 2.5 goals

55%Market 55%

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.9 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Real Sociedad 1 - 0 Deportivo (10.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 010.8%
2. 2 - 010.5%
3. 1 - 110.2%
4. 2 - 19.9%
5. 3 - 06.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Deportivo

Goals scored by Real Sociedad

01234505.55.22.50.80.20.0110.810.24.81.50.40.1210.59.94.71.50.30.136.86.53.01.00.20.043.33.11.50.50.10.051.31.20.60.20.00.0

Next matches of Real Sociedad

25/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeLevante

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayAthletic Club

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeRayo Vallecano

Next matches of Deportivo

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayAtlético Madrid

2/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeOsasuna

7/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayEspanyol

Our model gives Real Sociedad win 61%, draw 22%, Deportivo win 17%. over 2.5 goals 55%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 1.95 - 0.94. largest gap to the market: Deportivo win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.