Bologna vs Lecce prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Lecce vs Bologna, 2026-10-11, Italian Serie A, kickoff 16:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•13:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Lecce

VS13:00 GMT

Bologna

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.44

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

44%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 LecceX2 Bologna

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Lecce (1)	22.2%	23.6%	4.24	trending_up+1.5 pp
Draw (X)	29.1%	29.2%	3.42	trending_flat+0.1 pp
Bologna (2)	48.8%	47.2%	2.12	trending_down-1.6 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lecce 0 - 1 Bologna

PROBABILITY

13.1%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.7Exp. cards 3.4

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lecce

23%4.364.20

Draw

27%3.743.20

Bologna

50%1.991.91

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Lecce or draw

50%2.01—

Bologna or draw

77%1.30—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.36—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

70%1.421.35

Under 1.5 goals

30%3.382.90

Over 2.5 goals

44%2.272.12

Under 2.5 goals

56%1.791.72

Over 3.5 goals

23%4.353.70

Under 3.5 goals

77%1.301.23

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

48%2.10—

Not both score (NG)

52%1.91—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

60%1.661.38

Under 7.5 corners

40%2.512.70

Over 8.5 corners

49%2.051.75

Under 8.5 corners

51%1.951.95

Over 9.5 corners

38%2.642.25

Under 9.5 corners

62%1.611.55

Over 10.5 corners

28%3.543.05

Under 10.5 corners

72%1.391.30

Over 11.5 corners

20%4.91—

Under 11.5 corners

80%1.26—

Over 12.5 corners

14%7.06—

Under 12.5 corners

86%1.16—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

84%1.19—

Under 1.5 cards

16%6.15—

Over 2.5 cards

65%1.551.33

Under 2.5 cards

35%2.832.90

Over 3.5 cards

43%2.311.82

Under 3.5 cards

57%1.771.88

Over 4.5 cards

25%3.92—

Under 4.5 cards

75%1.34—

Over 5.5 cards

13%7.41—

Under 5.5 cards

87%1.16—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER38%

add_circleBologna

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.43

BUILDER37%

add_circleBologna

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.35

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lecce

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 5-10

WLLWL

LAAC Milan0-3

WHMonza3-2

LACagliari0-1

LHAS Roma0-4

WAVenezia2-0

Bologna

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 3-6

LLDLD

DHTorino1-1

LANapoli0-1

DHSassuolo2-2

LAAtalanta0-1

LHLazio0-1

Head-to-head

2026-04-12

Bologna2 - 0Lecce

2025-09-28

Lecce2 - 2Bologna

2025-02-09

Lecce0 - 0Bologna

2024-11-02

Bologna1 - 0Lecce

2024-02-11

Bologna4 - 0Lecce

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Team comparison

Lecce

VS

Bologna

#185 ▲11Power Index 40.3

Power Ranking

#66 ▼1Power Index 59.1

€83m20th in the league

Squad value

€228m10th in the league

Eusebio Di Francescosince 26 Jun 2025 · 48 games · 1.04 pts/game

Head coach

Raffaele Palladino NEWsince 16 Sep 2026 · 3 games · 1.33 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

23%Market 21%

Draw (X)

27%Market 29%

Away win (2)

50%Market 50%

Over 2.5 goals

44%Market 44%

Both teams to score

48%Market: —

Expected goals

0.9 - 1.5

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lecce 0 - 1 Bologna (13.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 113.1%
2. 1 - 112.2%
3. 0 - 29.9%
4. 1 - 29.2%
5. 0 - 08.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Bologna

Goals scored by Lecce

01234508.713.19.95.01.90.618.112.29.24.61.80.523.85.74.32.20.80.231.21.81.30.70.30.140.30.40.30.20.10.050.10.10.10.00.00.0

Next matches of Lecce

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeJuventus

29/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayFrosinone

1/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeGenoa

Next matches of Bologna

24/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayCagliari

28/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayAC Milan

31/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeMonza

Our model gives Lecce win 23%, draw 27%, Bologna win 50%. over 2.5 goals 44%. both teams to score 48%. expected goals 0.93 - 1.51. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.