Celta Vigo vs Elche prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Elche vs Celta Vigo, 2026-10-11, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 15:00 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•12:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Elche

VS12:00 GMT

Celta Vigo

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.58

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

48%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

X2 (Celta Vigo or draw)

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.47

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 ElcheX2 Celta Vigo

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Elche (1)	32.5%	31.9%	3.13	trending_down-0.6 pp
Draw (X)	29.1%	29%	3.45	trending_flat-0.1 pp
Celta Vigo (2)	38.4%	39.1%	2.56	trending_up+0.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

X2 (Celta Vigo or draw)

Our probability: 65%.

Indicative odds: 1.47

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Elche 1 - 1 Celta Vigo

PROBABILITY

12.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.2Exp. cards 4.2

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Elche

34%2.942.95

Draw

27%3.673.30

Celta Vigo

39%2.582.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Elche or draw

61%1.63—

Celta Vigo or draw

66%1.52—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.37—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

73%1.371.25

Under 1.5 goals

27%3.733.45

Over 2.5 goals

48%2.101.95

Under 2.5 goals

52%1.911.85

Over 3.5 goals

26%3.863.05

Under 3.5 goals

74%1.351.32

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.89—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.12—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

55%1.821.43

Under 7.5 corners

45%2.222.55

Over 8.5 corners

43%2.311.82

Under 8.5 corners

57%1.761.88

Over 9.5 corners

33%3.062.35

Under 9.5 corners

67%1.491.50

Over 10.5 corners

24%4.213.20

Under 10.5 corners

76%1.311.28

Over 11.5 corners

17%6.01—

Under 11.5 corners

83%1.20—

Over 12.5 corners

11%8.88—

Under 12.5 corners

89%1.13—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.10—

Under 1.5 cards

9%11.04—

Over 2.5 cards

78%1.28—

Under 2.5 cards

22%4.57—

Over 3.5 cards

60%1.661.65

Under 3.5 cards

40%2.512.10

Over 4.5 cards

41%2.422.45

Under 4.5 cards

59%1.701.45

Over 5.5 cards

25%3.93—

Under 5.5 cards

75%1.34—

Over 6.5 cards

14%6.96—

Under 6.5 cards

86%1.17—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Elche

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 10-11

LLDLW

WAEspanyol3-1

LHReal Madrid2-3

DAAthletic Club1-1

LHReal Sociedad2-3

LARacing Santander2-3

Celta Vigo

Last 5: 1W 3D 1L · goals 7-3

DDDLW

WHRacing Santander5-0

LAOmonia Nicosia0-1

DHMálaga1-1

DAGetafe1-1

DAReal Sociedad0-0

Head-to-head

2026-05-03

Celta Vigo3 - 1Elche

2025-09-28

Elche2 - 1Celta Vigo

2023-04-26

Celta Vigo1 - 0Elche

2023-01-06

Elche0 - 1Celta Vigo

2022-05-15

Celta Vigo1 - 0Elche

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Team comparison

Elche

VS

Celta Vigo

#85 ▲4Power Index 54.9

Power Ranking

#50 ▲3Power Index 62.7

€74m18th in the league

Squad value

€178m8th in the league

Martín Anselmisince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 0.78 pts/game

Head coach

Claudio Giráldezsince 12 Mar 2024 · 117 games · 1.47 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

34%Market 32%

Draw (X)

27%Market 29%

Away win (2)

39%Market 39%

Over 2.5 goals

48%Market 48%

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.2 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Elche 1 - 1 Celta Vigo (12.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.6%
2. 0 - 110.2%
3. 1 - 09.4%
4. 1 - 28.4%
5. 2 - 17.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Celta Vigo

Goals scored by Elche

01234507.610.26.83.01.00.319.412.68.43.81.30.325.87.85.22.30.80.232.43.22.21.00.30.140.71.00.70.30.10.050.20.20.20.10.00.0

Next matches of Elche

24/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayRayo Vallecano

1/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeValencia

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeReal Betis

Next matches of Celta Vigo

25/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeReal Betis

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayRayo Vallecano

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeLevante

Our model gives Elche win 34%, draw 27%, Celta Vigo win 39%. over 2.5 goals 48%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 1.24 - 1.34. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.