Model Desks

Three Model Desks, One Audit Trail

One pipeline, three specialised models. Backtest numbers come from historical matches; live numbers come from tips settled here. Small samples are labelled as noise.

sports_soccer

Goals Desk

1X2 · DC · O/U · BTTS

Dixon-Coles Poisson model blended with live market prices. The market leads until the model proves an edge.

BACKTEST HIT (0.65-0.70 p)69.1%

MATCHES IN BACKTEST41,000

history Backtest figures — not live promises

flag

Corners Desk

Team corners O/U lines

Team corner rates vs league baseline, with a strength-gap adjustment for dominant favourites.

BACKTEST HIT (0.65-0.70 p)65.7%

GAMES SAMPLE PER TEAM24+

history Backtest figures — not live promises

style

Cards Desk

Total cards O/U lines

Discipline rates of both squads and the referee, shrunk conservatively toward the league mean.

BACKTEST HIT (0.65-0.70 p)64.8%

MARKET BLEND WEIGHT0.9

history Backtest figures — not live promises

query_stats Live record by desk

Goals Desk0W 0L · 3 pending—

Corners Desk1W 2L · 4 pending33% (noise, n=3)

Cards Desk0W 1L · 1 pending0% (noise, n=1)

Live hit rate counts won and lost tips only. Void and pending are excluded. Backtest figures are not live promises.

Frequently asked questions

How are the predictions made?

A Dixon-Coles Poisson model estimates the goals of each team from form, strength and context, then blends the result with the bookmakers' implied probabilities. Markets covered: 1X2, double chance, over/under goals, both teams to score, corners and cards.

Are results published, including losses?

Yes. Every pick is recorded before kick-off and cannot be changed. Wins and losses are both published on the results page.

Are the predictions guaranteed?

No. Football is uncertain and every probability is an estimate. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+ only.

Three Model Desks, One Audit Trail

Goals Desk

Corners Desk

Cards Desk

query_stats Live record by desk

Frequently asked questions

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