Liverpool vs Manchester City prediction, tips and odds
Latest match: Liverpool vs Manchester City, 2026-10-11, English Premier League, kickoff 18:30 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.14
MODEL OVER 2.5
61%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
63%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
4
X2 (Manchester City or draw)
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool (1) | 32.3% | 29.5% | 3.39 | trending_down-2.8 pp |
| Draw (X) | 25.4% | 25.9% | 3.86 | trending_up+0.5 pp |
| Manchester City (2) | 42.3% | 44.6% | 2.24 | trending_up+2.3 pp |
Algorithmic Value
X2 (Manchester City or draw)
Our probability: 66%.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Liverpool 1 - 1 Manchester City
10.6%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Liverpool
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 8-2
AFC Bournemouth1-0
Tottenham Hotspur3-1
Fulham0-0
Atlético Madrid2-1
Ipswich Town2-0
Manchester City
Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · goals 14-3
Sunderland5-3
Norwich City5-0
Manchester United1-0
FC Porto2-0
Coventry City1-0Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Liverpool 1 - 1 Manchester City (10.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 110.6%
- 1 - 28.9%
- 2 - 17.7%
- 0 - 17.3%
- 2 - 26.5%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by Manchester CityNext matches of Liverpool
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Our model gives Liverpool win 33%, draw 24%, Manchester City win 43%. over 2.5 goals 61%. both teams to score 63%. expected goals 1.45 - 1.68. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.