Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes, 2026-10-11, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 20:00 Athens time

stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•17:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Benfica

VS17:00 GMT

Vitória de Guimaraes

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.36

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

65%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

47%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 BenficaX2 Vitória de Guimaraes

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Benfica (1)	78.6%	77.9%	1.28	trending_down-0.7 pp
Draw (X)	13.5%	13.5%	7.42	trending_flat+0.0 pp
Vitória de Guimaraes (2)	7.9%	8.6%	11.66	trending_up+0.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Benfica 2 - 0 Vitória de Guimaraes

PROBABILITY

12.2%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 4.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Benfica

79%1.271.20

Draw

14%7.107.00

Vitória de Guimaraes

7%13.7412.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Benfica or draw

93%1.08—

Vitória de Guimaraes or draw

21%4.68—

Either team wins (no draw)

86%1.16—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.181.10

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.705.30

Over 2.5 goals

65%1.531.40

Under 2.5 goals

35%2.882.70

Over 3.5 goals

43%2.312.10

Under 3.5 goals

57%1.761.70

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

47%2.12—

Not both score (NG)

53%1.89—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

71%1.41—

Under 7.5 corners

29%3.45—

Over 8.5 corners

60%1.651.42

Under 8.5 corners

40%2.532.55

Over 9.5 corners

50%2.021.80

Under 9.5 corners

50%1.981.90

Over 10.5 corners

39%2.552.25

Under 10.5 corners

61%1.651.55

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.343.00

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.431.32

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.52—

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.28—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

84%1.20—

Under 2.5 cards

16%6.12—

Over 3.5 cards

68%1.46—

Under 3.5 cards

32%3.16—

Over 4.5 cards

50%1.98—

Under 4.5 cards

50%2.02—

Over 5.5 cards

34%2.98—

Under 5.5 cards

66%1.51—

Over 6.5 cards

20%4.91—

Under 6.5 cards

80%1.26—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%

add_circleBenfica

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.04

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Benfica

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 13-4

WWWWL

LAFC Porto1-3

WAAC Milan2-0

WHGil Vicente3-1

WAMoreirense4-0

WAMaritimo3-0

Vitória de Guimaraes

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 3-4

WLDLD

DHMoreirense1-1

LAAcadémico de Viseu1-2

DHCasa Pia0-0

LABraga0-1

WHC.D. Nacional1-0

Head-to-head

2026-03-21

Benfica3 - 0Vitória de Guimaraes

2025-11-01

Vitória de Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica

2025-04-19

Vitória de Guimaraes0 - 3Benfica

2024-12-07

Benfica1 - 0Vitória de Guimaraes

2024-02-11

Vitória de Guimaraes2 - 2Benfica

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Team comparison

Benfica

VS

Vitória de Guimaraes

#11 ▲1Power Index 78.7

Power Ranking

#119 ▲5Power Index 49.7

€422m2nd in the league

Squad value

€59m6th in the league

Marco Silvasince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.38 pts/game

Head coach

Tiago Margaridosince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 0.89 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

79%Market 82% -3

Draw (X)

14%Market 12%

Away win (2)

7%Market 6%

Over 2.5 goals

65%Market 68% -3

Both teams to score

47%Market: —

Expected goals

2.7 - 0.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Benfica 2 - 0 Vitória de Guimaraes (12.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 012.2%
2. 3 - 010.8%
3. 1 - 09.2%
4. 2 - 18.6%
5. 3 - 17.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Vitória de Guimaraes

Goals scored by Benfica

01234503.52.40.90.20.00.019.26.52.30.50.10.0212.28.63.00.70.10.0310.87.62.70.60.10.047.25.11.80.40.10.053.82.71.00.20.00.0

Next matches of Benfica

26/10/2026 · POR.1AwaySanta Clara

2/11/2026 · POR.1HomeAlverca

8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayEstrela

Next matches of Vitória de Guimaraes

23/10/2026 · POR.1HomeMaritimo

2/11/2026 · POR.1AwayGil Vicente

8/11/2026 · POR.1HomeFC Porto

Our model gives Benfica win 79%, draw 14%, Vitória de Guimaraes win 7%. over 2.5 goals 65%. both teams to score 47%. expected goals 2.66 - 0.70. largest gap to the market: Benfica win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.