Marseille vs Troyes prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Troyes vs Marseille, 2026-10-11, French Ligue 1, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumFRENCH LIGUE 1•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Troyes

VS18:45 GMT

Marseille

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.06

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

63%

ODDS

1.55

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 TroyesX2 Marseille

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Troyes (1)	26.3%	27.4%	3.65	trending_up+1.1 pp
Draw (X)	24.6%	25.9%	3.86	trending_up+1.3 pp
Marseille (2)	49.1%	46.7%	2.14	trending_down-2.4 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK63%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 63%.

Odds: 1.55

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Troyes 1 - 1 Marseille

PROBABILITY

10.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.3Exp. cards 3.2

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Troyes

28%3.553.65

Draw

24%4.173.90

Marseille

48%2.091.95

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Troyes or draw

52%1.92—

Marseille or draw

72%1.39—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.32—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

81%1.231.14

Under 1.5 goals

19%5.364.60

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.691.60

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.452.35

Over 3.5 goals

37%2.722.35

Under 3.5 goals

63%1.581.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

61%1.65—

Not both score (NG)

39%2.54—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

67%1.501.40

Under 7.5 corners

33%3.012.60

Over 8.5 corners

56%1.801.80

Under 8.5 corners

44%2.261.90

Over 9.5 corners

45%2.242.35

Under 9.5 corners

55%1.811.50

Over 10.5 corners

35%2.893.15

Under 10.5 corners

65%1.531.30

Over 11.5 corners

26%3.88—

Under 11.5 corners

74%1.35—

Over 12.5 corners

19%5.38—

Under 12.5 corners

81%1.23—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

82%1.21—

Under 1.5 cards

18%5.66—

Over 2.5 cards

62%1.601.35

Under 2.5 cards

38%2.662.80

Over 3.5 cards

41%2.451.87

Under 3.5 cards

59%1.691.83

Over 4.5 cards

23%4.27—

Under 4.5 cards

77%1.31—

Over 5.5 cards

12%8.25—

Under 5.5 cards

88%1.14—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER40%

add_circleMarseille

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.17

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Troyes

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 6-13

WLLLD

DADijon FCO2-2

LAAngers0-2

LALille0-2

LHStrasbourg2-6

WALorient2-1

Marseille

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · goals 4-11

LLLLL

LAMontpellier0-1

LHParis Saint-Germain1-2

LABesiktas1-4

LAStade Rennais0-1

LHParis FC2-3

Head-to-head

2023-04-16

Marseille3 - 1Troyes

2023-01-11

Troyes0 - 2Marseille

2022-02-27

Troyes1 - 1Marseille

2021-11-28

Marseille1 - 0Troyes

2018-04-15

Troyes2 - 3Marseille

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Team comparison

Troyes

VS

Marseille

#182 ▼7Power Index 40.9

Power Ranking

#38 ▼1Power Index 67.0

€43m17th in the league

Squad value

€189m9th in the league

Stéphane Dumontsince 12 Aug 2024 · 85 games · 1.64 pts/game

Head coach

Bruno Genesiosince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

28%Market 26%

Draw (X)

24%Market 24%

Away win (2)

48%Market 50%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 61%

Both teams to score

61%Market: —

Expected goals

1.3 - 1.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Troyes 1 - 1 Marseille (10.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.7%
2. 1 - 29.4%
3. 0 - 18.2%
4. 0 - 27.2%
5. 2 - 17.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Marseille

Goals scored by Troyes

01234504.78.27.24.21.90.716.110.79.45.52.40.924.07.06.23.61.60.631.73.02.71.60.70.240.61.00.90.50.20.150.10.30.20.10.10.0

Next matches of Troyes

24/10/2026 · FRA.1AwayToulouse

31/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLe Mans

7/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis Saint-Germain

Next matches of Marseille

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLe Havre AC

1/11/2026 · FRA.1HomeToulouse

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLens

Our model gives Troyes win 28%, draw 24%, Marseille win 48%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.30 - 1.76. largest gap to the market: Troyes win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.