C.D. Nacional vs Rio Ave prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Rio Ave vs C.D. Nacional, 2026-10-11, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 17:30 Athens time

stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•14:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Rio Ave

VS14:30 GMT

C.D. Nacional

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.52

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

46%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

51%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Rio AveX2 C.D. Nacional

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Rio Ave (1)	41.2%	44.7%	2.24	trending_up+3.5 pp
Draw (X)	29.2%	28.9%	3.46	trending_flat-0.3 pp
C.D. Nacional (2)	29.6%	26.4%	3.78	trending_down-3.2 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Rio Ave 1 - 1 C.D. Nacional

PROBABILITY

12.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.7Exp. cards 4.5

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Rio Ave

42%2.362.30

Draw

27%3.663.25

C.D. Nacional

30%3.313.20

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Rio Ave or draw

70%1.43—

C.D. Nacional or draw

58%1.74—

Either team wins (no draw)

73%1.38—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

72%1.39—

Under 1.5 goals

28%3.59—

Over 2.5 goals

46%2.162.00

Under 2.5 goals

54%1.861.77

Over 3.5 goals

25%4.04—

Under 3.5 goals

75%1.33—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

51%1.95—

Not both score (NG)

49%2.05—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

71%1.42—

Under 7.5 corners

29%3.40—

Over 8.5 corners

60%1.67—

Under 8.5 corners

40%2.50—

Over 9.5 corners

49%2.04—

Under 9.5 corners

51%1.96—

Over 10.5 corners

39%2.58—

Under 10.5 corners

61%1.63—

Over 11.5 corners

29%3.39—

Under 11.5 corners

71%1.42—

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.61—

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.28—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

92%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

8%13.06—

Over 2.5 cards

81%1.23—

Under 2.5 cards

19%5.30—

Over 3.5 cards

65%1.55—

Under 3.5 cards

35%2.82—

Over 4.5 cards

46%2.17—

Under 4.5 cards

54%1.85—

Over 5.5 cards

30%3.38—

Under 5.5 cards

70%1.42—

Over 6.5 cards

17%5.78—

Under 6.5 cards

83%1.21—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Rio Ave

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 5-12

WLLDL

LAAlverca0-1

DHEstrela3-3

LASanta Clara0-4

LHSporting CP0-4

WAEstoril2-0

C.D. Nacional

Last 5: 0W 0D 5L · goals 3-13

LLLLL

LHFC Famalicao0-4

LHAlverca1-3

LASporting CP0-2

LHEstrela2-3

LAVitória de Guimaraes0-1

Head-to-head

2026-01-25

C.D. Nacional4 - 0Rio Ave

2025-08-17

Rio Ave1 - 1C.D. Nacional

2025-05-10

C.D. Nacional3 - 3Rio Ave

2024-12-29

Rio Ave2 - 1C.D. Nacional

2021-05-19

C.D. Nacional1 - 2Rio Ave

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Team comparison

Rio Ave

VS

C.D. Nacional

#189 ▲4Power Index 39.4

Power Ranking

#186 ▼1Power Index 40.1

€44m10th in the league

Squad value

€22m16th in the league

Vasco Seabra NEWsince 4 Oct 2026 · 2 games · 3.00 pts/game

Head coach

Alexandre Santos NEWsince 8 Sep 2026 · 4 games · 0.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

42%Market 42%

Draw (X)

27%Market 29%

Away win (2)

30%Market 29%

Over 2.5 goals

46%Market 47%

Both teams to score

51%Market: —

Expected goals

1.4 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Rio Ave 1 - 1 C.D. Nacional (12.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.6%
2. 1 - 011.1%
3. 0 - 19.1%
4. 2 - 18.8%
5. 0 - 08.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by C.D. Nacional

Goals scored by Rio Ave

01234508.09.15.11.90.60.1111.112.67.22.70.80.227.88.85.01.90.50.133.64.12.30.90.20.141.31.40.80.30.10.050.30.40.20.10.00.0

Next matches of Rio Ave

25/10/2026 · POR.1HomeFC Famalicao

1/11/2026 · POR.1AwayAcadémico de Viseu

8/11/2026 · POR.1HomeBraga

Next matches of C.D. Nacional

25/10/2026 · POR.1HomeBraga

1/11/2026 · POR.1AwayArouca

7/11/2026 · POR.1HomeAcadémico de Viseu

Our model gives Rio Ave win 42%, draw 27%, C.D. Nacional win 30%. over 2.5 goals 46%. both teams to score 51%. expected goals 1.39 - 1.13. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.