Excelsior vs FC Groningen prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Excelsior vs FC Groningen, 2026-10-11, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 17:45 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•14:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Excelsior

VS14:45 GMT

FC Groningen

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.13

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

63%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Both teams to score (GG)

MODEL PROBABILITY

63%

ODDS

1.50

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 ExcelsiorX2 FC Groningen

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Excelsior (1)	36.8%	37.5%	2.67	trending_up+0.7 pp
Draw (X)	25.7%	25.7%	3.89	trending_flat+0.0 pp
FC Groningen (2)	37.5%	36.8%	2.72	trending_down-0.7 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK63%

Both teams to score (GG)

Our probability: 63%.

Odds: 1.50

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Excelsior 1 - 1 FC Groningen

PROBABILITY

10.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.7Exp. cards 2.6

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Excelsior

38%2.612.50

Draw

24%4.103.60

FC Groningen

37%2.682.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Excelsior or draw

63%1.601.50

FC Groningen or draw

62%1.621.50

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.321.28

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.221.14

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.635.50

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.651.53

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.532.40

Over 3.5 goals

38%2.622.25

Under 3.5 goals

62%1.621.57

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

63%1.591.50

Not both score (NG)

37%2.692.50

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

70%1.431.30

Under 7.5 corners

30%3.343.40

Over 8.5 corners

59%1.691.53

Under 8.5 corners

41%2.462.37

Over 9.5 corners

48%2.071.83

Under 9.5 corners

52%1.941.83

Over 10.5 corners

38%2.632.50

Under 10.5 corners

62%1.611.50

Over 11.5 corners

29%3.463.40

Under 11.5 corners

71%1.411.30

Over 12.5 corners

21%4.714.50

Under 12.5 corners

79%1.271.18

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

73%1.37—

Under 1.5 cards

27%3.67—

Over 2.5 cards

48%2.06—

Under 2.5 cards

52%1.94—

Over 3.5 cards

27%3.66—

Under 3.5 cards

73%1.38—

Over 4.5 cards

14%7.40—

Under 4.5 cards

86%1.16—

Over 5.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 5.5 cards

93%1.08—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER46%

add_circleEither team wins (no draw)

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.01

BUILDER43%

add_circleEither team wins (no draw)

add_circleBoth score (GG)

Indicative odds: 1.92

BUILDER41%

add_circleExcelsior or draw

add_circleBoth score (GG)

Indicative odds: 2.13

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Excelsior

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 10-7

WWDLD

DAAjax Amsterdam2-2

LHFC Utrecht1-2

DANEC Nijmegen2-2

WAWillem II3-0

WHSparta Rotterdam2-1

FC Groningen

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-11

LLDDW

WHPEC Zwolle3-0

DAGo Ahead Eagles1-1

DHFC Twente2-2

LHFortuna Sittard2-3

LAPSV Eindhoven1-5

Head-to-head

2026-05-02

FC Groningen2 - 3Excelsior

2025-12-05

Excelsior0 - 2FC Groningen

2024-01-16

Excelsior0 - 2FC Groningen

2023-02-25

FC Groningen3 - 0Excelsior

2023-01-08

Excelsior1 - 0FC Groningen

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Team comparison

Excelsior

VS

FC Groningen

#204 ▼10Power Index 37.5

Power Ranking

#167 ▼8Power Index 43.0

€21m14th in the league

Squad value

€47m9th in the league

Darren Maatsensince 1 Jul 2025 · 0 games

Head coach

Dick Lukkiensince 1 Jul 2023 · 124 games · 1.54 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

38%Market 37%

Draw (X)

24%Market 25%

Away win (2)

37%Market 38%

Over 2.5 goals

60%Market 62%

Both teams to score

63%Market: —

Expected goals

1.6 - 1.6

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Excelsior 1 - 1 FC Groningen (10.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.7%
2. 2 - 18.4%
3. 1 - 28.3%
4. 1 - 06.9%
5. 0 - 16.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by FC Groningen

Goals scored by Excelsior

01234504.46.85.32.71.10.316.910.78.34.31.70.525.48.46.63.41.30.432.84.43.41.80.70.241.11.71.40.70.30.150.40.50.40.20.10.0

Next matches of Excelsior

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwayFortuna Sittard

1/11/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Twente

7/11/2026 · NED.1HomeGo Ahead Eagles

Next matches of FC Groningen

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwayNEC Nijmegen

1/11/2026 · NED.1HomeSparta Rotterdam

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayAZ Alkmaar

Our model gives Excelsior win 38%, draw 24%, FC Groningen win 37%. over 2.5 goals 60%. both teams to score 63%. expected goals 1.57 - 1.55. largest gap to the market: Excelsior win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.