insights Algorithmic Feed 8 Fixtures Evaluated Todayquery_stats Settled: 1W 3L (25%, small sample)
bolt Real-time model output
Today's Football Predictions
Nature of output:Model estimates, not guarantees
local_fire_department TOP PICK OF THE DAYstars UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEschedule Kickoff 18:45 GMT
Fixture:
Northern Ireland vs Georgia
OUR SELECTION
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS
@1.53
PROB.
72%
trending_up
Statistical Edge: Model probability 72%, fair odds 1.38, published odds 1.53. No market-implied comparison is available for this pick. Estimate, not a guarantee.
sports_soccer Fixtures Evaluated
PICKS ARE LOGGED BEFORE KICKOFFUEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
MODEL PROBABILITY: 65%
FranceVSBelgium
1
64%
@1.44
X
20%
@4.50
2
15%
@6.00
FREE TIP1X2 / DOUBLE CHANCEMODEL VS MARKET -2 pp
1 (France)
ODDS1.44
PROB.65%
psychologyKey Insight: Model 65% vs 67% implied by the market.
warningStakes and news check: In Nations League Group A1, France have 7 points and Belgium 6 after 3 matches, so the game decides the top spot. Belgium are without suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans, and France without Upamecano (suspended), Guendouzi (suspended) and Zaire-Emery (injured).
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.15 - 0.95Elo 1/X/2 61% / 22% / 18%
164% mkt 67%
X20% mkt 19%
215% mkt 14%
O2.560%
BTTS55%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (2 SNAPSHOTS)
1
64% → 64%
+0.3 pp
X
20% → 21%
+0.4 pp
2
16% → 15%
-0.7 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
MODEL PROBABILITY: 69%
ItalyVSTürkiye
1
69%
@1.35
X
19%
@4.90
2
12%
@7.50
FREE TIP1X2 / DOUBLE CHANCEMODEL VS MARKET -3 pp
1 (Italy)
ODDS1.35
PROB.69%
psychologyKey Insight: Model 69% vs 72% implied by the market.
warningStakes and news check: Türkiye are without Arda Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz (suspended) and Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz (injured). Italy have no major absences but may rotate. Italy are 3rd with 4 points and Türkiye bottom with 0, so both need a win: Italy for the 3rd place that leads to a relegation playoff for League A (the top tier of the Nations League), Türkiye to avoid finishing last.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.26 - 0.85
169% mkt 72%
X19% mkt 17%
212% mkt 11%
O2.560%
BTTS51%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
68% → 69%
+1.2 pp
X
19% → 19%
-0.3 pp
2
13% → 12%
-0.8 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
MODEL PROBABILITY: 71%
MontenegroVSArmenia
1
66%
@1.42
X
20%
@4.50
2
14%
@6.50
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS1.70
PROB.71%
psychologyKey Insight: Model 71%, fair odds 1.40.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 2.12 - 0.87Elo 1/X/2 67% / 19% / 15%
166% mkt 68%
X20% mkt 19%
214% mkt 13%
O2.557% mkt 59%
BTTS51%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (5 SNAPSHOTS)
1
61% → 66%
+4.3 pp
X
22% → 20%
-1.8 pp
2
17% → 14%
-2.5 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
MODEL PROBABILITY: 72%
Northern IrelandVSGeorgia
1
40%
@2.35
X
31%
@2.90
2
29%
@3.20
FREE TIPCORNERS
Under 9.5 corners
ODDS1.53
PROB.72%
psychologyKey Insight: Model 72%, fair odds 1.38.
warningStakes and news check: Northern Ireland (7 points, top of Group B2) are without Dan Ballard (hamstring) and are chasing promotion to League A, the top tier of the Nations League. Georgia (1 point, bottom) are without Otar Kiteishvili and need a win, so neither side is playing for a draw.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.12 - 0.90Elo 1/X/2 54% / 24% / 21%
140% mkt 40%
X31% mkt 32%
229% mkt 29%
O2.533%
BTTS40%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
38% → 39%
+0.9 pp
X
32% → 32%
-0.5 pp
2
29% → 29%
-0.4 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
MODEL PROBABILITY: 67%
UkraineVSHungary
1
36%
@2.65
X
32%
@2.85
2
32%
@2.85
FREE TIPGOALS & BTTS
Over 1.5 goals
ODDS1.50
PROB.67%
psychologyKey Insight: Model 67%, fair odds 1.49.
warningStakes and news check: Κύριοι παίκτες εκτός λόγω τραυματισμών: Dovbyk (Bologna), Mykolenko και Mudryk. Μείωση επιθετικής δύναμης Ουκρανίας μπορεί να επηρεάσει τα γκολ.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.02 - 0.95Elo 1/X/2 52% / 25% / 23%
136% mkt 35%
X32% mkt 32%
232% mkt 32%
O2.532%
BTTS40%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
37% → 35%
-1.9 pp
X
31% → 33%
+1.8 pp
2
32% → 33%
+0.2 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 16:00 GMT
CyprusVSLatvia
1
61%
@1.53
X
24%
@3.80
2
15%
@6.00
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.75 - 0.74Elo 1/X/2 56% / 24% / 20%
161% mkt 63%
X24% mkt 23%
215% mkt 14%
O2.545% mkt 46%
BTTS44%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (4 SNAPSHOTS)
1
57% → 61%
+3.6 pp
X
25% → 25%
-0.3 pp
2
18% → 14%
-3.4 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
Bosnia-HerzegovinaVSPoland
1
35%
@2.75
X
27%
@3.20
2
37%
@2.50
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.25 - 1.29Elo 1/X/2 41% / 28% / 31%
135% mkt 34%
X27% mkt 29%
237% mkt 37%
O2.547% mkt 47%
BTTS52%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (3 SNAPSHOTS)
1
32% → 34%
+1.9 pp
X
28% → 29%
+1.1 pp
2
40% → 37%
-3.0 pp
UEFA NATIONS LEAGUEKickoff 18:45 GMT
RomaniaVSSweden
1
21%
@4.70
X
23%
@4.10
2
57%
@1.61
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish nothing rather than a weak pick.
expand_moreMODEL DETAILS
xG 1.08 - 1.92Elo 1/X/2 27% / 27% / 46%
121% mkt 19%
X23% mkt 22%
257% mkt 60%
O2.558%
BTTS57%
MARKET DRIFT, IMPLIED 1X2 (6 SNAPSHOTS)
1
23% → 20%
-3.8 pp
X
24% → 23%
-1.5 pp
2
52% → 58%
+5.3 pp
receipt_long
Today's Coupons
Each coupon combines our published picks from different matches. Higher risk: one lost leg loses the coupon.
COUPON #12 LEGS
✓
Northern Ireland vs Georgia · UEFA Nations League
Under 9.5 corners
1.5372%
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 4.5 cards
1.5372%
Total odds2.34
Joint probability52%
Product of leg odds and probabilities, independent matches. An estimate, not a guarantee.
COUPON #23 LEGS
✓
Northern Ireland vs Georgia · UEFA Nations League
Under 9.5 corners
1.5372%
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 4.5 cards
1.5372%
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 9.5 corners
1.7071%
Total odds3.98
Joint probability37%
Product of leg odds and probabilities, independent matches. An estimate, not a guarantee.
COUPON #32 LEGS
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 4.5 cards
1.5372%
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 9.5 corners
1.7071%
Total odds2.60
Joint probability51%
Product of leg odds and probabilities, independent matches. An estimate, not a guarantee.
COUPON #43 LEGS
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 4.5 cards
1.5372%
✓
Montenegro vs Armenia · UEFA Nations League
Under 9.5 corners
1.7071%
✓
Italy vs Türkiye · UEFA Nations League
1 (Italy)
1.3569%
Total odds3.51
Joint probability36%
Product of leg odds and probabilities, independent matches. An estimate, not a guarantee.
layers
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match, joint probability from the model score grid. Indicative odds, lower probability than our main picks.
BET BUILDERSAME MATCH
✓
Romania vs Sweden
Sweden
✓
Romania vs Sweden
Over 1.5 goals
Indicative odds~1.82
Joint probability47%
Indicative odds: product of the legs adjusted for correlation. An estimate, not a guarantee.
BET BUILDERSAME MATCH
✓
Cyprus vs Latvia
Cyprus
✓
Cyprus vs Latvia
Over 1.5 goals
Indicative odds~1.84
Joint probability47%
Indicative odds: product of the legs adjusted for correlation. An estimate, not a guarantee.
BET BUILDERSAME MATCH
✓
France vs Belgium
France
✓
France vs Belgium
Over 2.5 goals
Indicative odds~1.93
Joint probability45%
Indicative odds: product of the legs adjusted for correlation. An estimate, not a guarantee.
send
Get the daily picks in Telegram
Free channel with the same published picks and the evening results.
JOIN FREE CHANNEL arrow_forwardStatistical Classification Legend
How AI Goal Lab reads the numbers on this page.
70%+ MODEL PROBABILITY 60-70% UNDER 60%
calculateModel Probability
Our Poisson goal model, blended with the market-implied probability. It is an estimate, never a guarantee.
balanceModel vs Market
The gap in percentage points between our probability and the one implied by market odds. Shown only when a market comparison exists.
shieldVerified Transparency
Every pick is logged before kickoff and settled from the official score feed. Losses stay visible. Open the archive
18+ only. Predictions are statistical estimates. AI Goal Lab is not a bookmaker and does not accept bets. Please play responsibly.