Football match analysis and odds movement
HOMECyprus
Latvia
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.49
MODEL OVER 2.5
45%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
44%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
4
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus (1) | 57.5% | 61.1% | 1.64 | trending_up+3.6 pp |
| Draw (X) | 25% | 24.7% | 4.06 | trending_flat-0.3 pp |
| Latvia (2) | 17.6% | 14.2% | 7.03 | trending_down-3.4 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Cyprus 1 - 0 Latvia
14.4%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Cyprus
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 6-3
Armenia2-0Latvia0-0
Montenegro1-2
Liechtenstein2-0
Slovenia1-1Latvia
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 3-4
Montenegro1-2Cyprus0-0Armenia0-2
Gibraltar1-0Gibraltar1-0Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 24%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Cyprus. Columns: Latvia. %
HOMEBosnia-Herzegovina
Poland
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.54
MODEL OVER 2.5
47%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
52%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
3
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bosnia-Herzegovina (1) | 31.9% | 33.8% | 2.96 | trending_up+1.9 pp |
| Draw (X) | 28% | 29% | 3.44 | trending_up+1.1 pp |
| Poland (2) | 40.2% | 37.2% | 2.69 | trending_down-3.0 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Poland
12.7%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 8-6
Sweden1-1
Romania4-2Poland0-0
United States0-2
Qatar3-1Poland
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-7
Romania6-0Sweden1-3Bosnia-Herzegovina0-0
Nigeria2-2
Ukraine0-2Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 28%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Bosnia-Herzegovina. Columns: Poland. %
HOMEFrance
Belgium
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.10
MODEL OVER 2.5
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
55%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
2
1 (France)
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France (1) | 63.7% | 64% | 1.56 | trending_flat+0.3 pp |
| Draw (X) | 20.2% | 20.5% | 4.87 | trending_flat+0.4 pp |
| Belgium (2) | 16.1% | 15.4% | 6.49 | trending_down-0.7 pp |
Algorithmic Value
1 (France)
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
France 2 - 0 Belgium
10.4%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
France
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-9
Italy1-1Belgium1-0
Türkiye1-0
England4-6
Spain0-2Belgium
Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 10-4
Türkiye3-0France0-1Italy2-0Spain1-2United States4-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 22%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: France. Columns: Belgium. %
HOMEItaly
Türkiye
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.11
MODEL OVER 2.5
60%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
4
1 (Italy)
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy (1) | 67.5% | 68.7% | 1.46 | trending_up+1.2 pp |
| Draw (X) | 19.3% | 18.9% | 5.28 | trending_flat-0.3 pp |
| Türkiye (2) | 13.2% | 12.4% | 8.08 | trending_down-0.8 pp |
Algorithmic Value
1 (Italy)
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Italy 2 - 0 Türkiye
11.4%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Italy
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 7-4
France1-1Türkiye4-1Belgium0-2
Greece1-0
Luxembourg1-0Türkiye
Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 4-11
Belgium0-3Italy1-4France0-1United States3-2
Paraguay0-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Italy. Columns: Türkiye. %
HOMEMontenegro
Armenia
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.99
MODEL OVER 2.5
57%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
51%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
5
Under 9.5 corners
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro (1) | 61.4% | 65.7% | 1.52 | trending_up+4.3 pp |
| Draw (X) | 21.9% | 20.1% | 4.98 | trending_down-1.8 pp |
| Armenia (2) | 16.7% | 14.2% | 7.03 | trending_down-2.5 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Under 9.5 corners
Αναμενόμενα κόρνερ: Montenegro 4.6, Armenia 3.0, σύνολο 7.6 (γραμμή 9.5).
Ρυθμός κόρνερ υπέρ σε σχέση με τον μέσο όρο: Montenegro x1.02, Armenia x1.07 (δείγμα 24 και 24 ισοδύναμοι αγώνες).
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Montenegro 2 - 0 Armenia
11.3%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Montenegro
Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 10-6
Latvia2-1Armenia3-2Cyprus2-1
Slovakia2-2
Bulgaria1-0Armenia
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 6-7
Cyprus0-2Montenegro2-3Latvia2-0
Moldova1-1
Kazakhstan1-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 19%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Montenegro. Columns: Armenia. %
HOMENorthern Ireland
Georgia
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.02
MODEL OVER 2.5
33%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
40%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
3
Under 9.5 corners
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Ireland (1) | 38.4% | 39.3% | 2.54 | trending_up+0.9 pp |
| Draw (X) | 32.3% | 31.8% | 3.14 | trending_down-0.5 pp |
| Georgia (2) | 29.3% | 28.9% | 3.47 | trending_down-0.4 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Under 9.5 corners
Αναμενόμενα κόρνερ: Northern Ireland 3.7, Georgia 3.8, σύνολο 7.5 (γραμμή 9.5).
Ρυθμός κόρνερ υπέρ σε σχέση με τον μέσο όρο: Northern Ireland x0.88, Georgia x0.99 (δείγμα 24 και 25 ισοδύναμοι αγώνες).
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Northern Ireland 1 - 0 Georgia
14.8%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Northern Ireland
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 6-3
Ukraine3-0
Hungary0-0Georgia1-0France1-3
Guinea1-0Georgia
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 3-3
Hungary0-1Ukraine0-0Northern Ireland0-1
Bahrain2-0Romania1-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 24%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Northern Ireland. Columns: Georgia. %
HOMERomania
Sweden
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
3.00
MODEL OVER 2.5
58%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
57%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
6
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania (1) | 23.5% | 19.7% | 5.07 | trending_down-3.8 pp |
| Draw (X) | 24.1% | 22.6% | 4.42 | trending_down-1.5 pp |
| Sweden (2) | 52.4% | 57.7% | 1.73 | trending_up+5.3 pp |
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Romania 1 - 1 Sweden
10.3%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability comes from the model score grid. Odds are indicative (product of leg prices adjusted for correlation), not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Romania
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 6-14
Poland0-6Bosnia-Herzegovina2-4Sweden1-2
Wales2-1Georgia1-1Sweden
Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 7-7
Bosnia-Herzegovina1-1Poland3-1Romania2-1France0-3
Japan1-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 27%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Romania. Columns: Sweden. %
HOMEUkraine
Hungary
AWAYPROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
1.98
MODEL OVER 2.5
32%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
40%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
3
Over 1.5 goals
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
| SELECTION | FIRST | LATEST | FAIR ODDS NOW | DRIFT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine (1) | 36.9% | 35% | 2.86 | trending_down-1.9 pp |
| Draw (X) | 30.7% | 32.5% | 3.08 | trending_up+1.8 pp |
| Hungary (2) | 32.4% | 32.5% | 3.08 | trending_flat+0.2 pp |
Algorithmic Value
Over 1.5 goals
Αναμενόμενα γκολ: Ukraine 1.20, Hungary 1.08 (σύνολο 2.28).
Η αγορά (DraftKings (ESPN), χωρίς margin) δίνει 1 37%, X 31%, 2 32%.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Ukraine 1 - 0 Hungary
14.2%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Ukraine
Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 4-5
Northern Ireland0-3Georgia0-0Hungary1-0
Denmark1-2Poland2-0Hungary
Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 6-3
Georgia1-0Northern Ireland0-0Ukraine0-1Kazakhstan3-1
Finland2-1Head-to-head
Quantitative Telemetry: Model vs Market
Green bar and left number: our model. Cyan marker and right number: market implied probability. Estimates, not guarantees.
Draw: 25%
Poisson from expected goals. Rows: Ukraine. Columns: Hungary. %
Probabilities are estimates from a statistical model, never guarantees. 18+. We are not a bookmaker.