Maritimo vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction, tips and odds
Next match: Vitória de Guimaraes vs Maritimo, 2026-10-23, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 22:45 Athens time
PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS
2.56
MODEL OVER 2.5
47%
BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
47%
ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY
0
No pick passes our filters for this match.
Odds Telemetry & Market Drift
Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.
Algorithmic Value
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
Vitória de Guimaraes 1 - 0 Maritimo
13.4%
Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance
Total goals
Both teams to score
Corners
Cards (yellow + red)
Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Vitória de Guimaraes
Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 3-5
Benfica0-2
Moreirense1-1
Académico de Viseu1-2
Casa Pia0-0
Maritimo
Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 5-10
FC Porto1-2
Gil Vicente1-1Moreirense1-3Benfica0-3Head-to-head
Team comparison
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Most likely final scores
Most likely: Vitória de Guimaraes 1 - 0 Maritimo (13.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
- 1 - 013.4%
- 2 - 011.6%
- 1 - 111.1%
- 2 - 19.6%
- 0 - 07.7%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Goals scored by MaritimoLineups
The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.
Form
Vitória de GuimaraesMaritimoForm and team news
Vitória de Guimaraes have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.2 per game.
Maritimo have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 per game.
Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.
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Our model gives Vitória de Guimaraes win 59%, draw 24%, Maritimo win 17%. over 2.5 goals 47%. both teams to score 47%. expected goals 1.73 - 0.82. largest gap to the market: Vitória de Guimaraes win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.