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Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
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OlympiacosHOME

Olympiacos

VS19:00 GMT

Sparta Prague

Sparta PragueAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.87

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

55%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

50%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Olympiacos 2 - 0 Sparta Prague

PROBABILITY

11.5%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Olympiacos
64%1.561.53
Draw
21%4.734.50
Sparta Prague
15%6.766.00
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Olympiacos or draw
85%1.17—
Sparta Prague or draw
36%2.78—
Either team wins (no draw)
79%1.27—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
78%1.281.20
Under 1.5 goals
22%4.613.95
Over 2.5 goals
55%1.831.75
Under 2.5 goals
45%2.202.10
Over 3.5 goals
32%3.102.65
Under 3.5 goals
68%1.481.42
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
50%2.00—
Not both score (NG)
50%2.00—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%
add_circleOlympiacos
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.26
BUILDER40%
add_circleOlympiacos
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.17
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Olympiacos

Olympiacos

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · goals 7-1

WWWWW
WAPanetolikos2-0
WAMarseille1-0
WHPanathinaikos1-0
WALevadiakos1-0
WHJagiellonia Bialystok2-1
Sparta Prague

Sparta Prague

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 12-9

WLWWD
DHLillestrom1-1
WHVysocina Jihlava5-3
WAArarat-Armenia4-1
LALyon0-3
WHLyon2-1

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
Sparta Prague
#60 ▲6Power Index 60.2
Power Ranking
—
€186m1st in the league
Squad value
—
Imanol Alguacil NEWsince 10 Sep 2026 · 6 games · 2.50 pts/game
Head coach
—

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
64%Market 64%
Draw (X)
21%Market 21%
Away win (2)
15%Market 15%
Over 2.5 goals
55%Market 54%
Both teams to score
50%Market: —
Expected goals
2.0 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Olympiacos 2 - 0 Sparta Prague (11.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 2 - 011.5%
  2. 1 - 011.4%
  3. 2 - 19.8%
  4. 1 - 19.8%
  5. 3 - 07.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Sparta Prague
Goals scored by Olympiacos
01234505.74.92.10.60.10.0111.49.84.21.20.30.0211.59.84.21.20.30.037.76.62.80.80.20.043.93.31.40.40.10.051.61.30.60.20.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Olympiacos
Last 5, most recent first
WWWWW
Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 0.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-1
Away, W-D-L (last 10)5-1-0

Absences

Olympiacos4 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-forwardInjuredBroken tibia5/9/2026
Attacking midfieldInjuredmuscular problems18/10/2026
Right wingerInjuredunknown injury14/10/2026
Attacking midfieldInjuredCruciate ligament tear7/5/2026
Sparta Prague9 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Josimar AlcócerKey playerLeft wingerInjured9
Adam KarabecAttacking midfieldInjuredAnkle injury30/9/2026
Elias CobbautCentre-backInjuredThigh problems10/12/2025
Emmanuel UchennaCentre-backInjuredThigh problems21/11/2025
Loïc Mbe SohCentre-backInjuredunknown injury10/10/2026
Magnus Kofod AndersenCentral midfieldInjuredCruciate ligament injury25/8/2025
Matej RynesLeft midfieldInjuredAnkle injury21/9/2026
Ondrej PenxaLeft wingerInjuredCruciate ligament injury15/1/2026
Roman MacekCentral midfieldInjured10

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Olympiacos
5 W0 D0 L1.4 for0.2 against4 out

Olympiacos have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 4 players are out.

Sparta Prague
9 out

According to Transfermarkt, 9 players are out, including key players Josimar Alcócer.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

9Ayoub El Kaabi
Olympiacos
Position
Forward
Age
33
Nationality
Morocco
Height
183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
4Goals
1Assists
30Shots
12Shots on target
23Fouls committed
8Fouls won
8Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.40 goals per game, 0.10 assists per game, 3.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Kostas Fortounis, Midfielder Olympiacos
7Kostas Fortounis
Olympiacos
Position
Midfielder
Age
34 (16/10/1992)
Nationality
Greece
Height
183 cm
Market value
€1.5m
Contract until
30/6/2028
Joined from
Al-Khaleej FC, 1/7/2026, free transfer

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
8Shots
1Shots on target
1Fouls committed
7Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

2.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

17Leon Bailey
Olympiacos
Position
Forward
Age
29
Nationality
Jamaica
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
2Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
97Yusuf Yazici
Olympiacos
Position
Forward
Age
29
Nationality
Türkiye
Height
183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Next matches of Olympiacos

22/10/2026 · UEFA.EUROPAHomeSparta Prague
25/10/2026 · GRE.1HomeKalamata
28/10/2026 · GRE.CUPAwayMarko
Olympiacos

More matches on this day

Our model gives Olympiacos win 64%, draw 21%, Sparta Prague win 15%. over 2.5 goals 55%. both teams to score 50%. expected goals 2.01 - 0.85. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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