Marseille vs SK Sturm Graz prediction, tips and odds

Next match: SK Sturm Graz vs Marseille, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

SK Sturm Graz

VS16:45 GMT

Marseille

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.93

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

56%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

SK Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Marseille

PROBABILITY

11.2%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

SK Sturm Graz

28%3.613.50

Draw

25%4.063.65

Marseille

48%2.102.05

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

SK Sturm Graz or draw

52%1.91—

Marseille or draw

72%1.38—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.261.18

Under 1.5 goals

21%4.854.05

Over 2.5 goals

56%1.781.70

Under 2.5 goals

44%2.282.15

Over 3.5 goals

34%2.962.60

Under 3.5 goals

66%1.511.47

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

58%1.72—

Not both score (NG)

42%2.40—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER39%

add_circleMarseille

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.35

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

SK Sturm Graz

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 11-8

LWWLW

WHGrazer AK6-1

LAAFC Bournemouth0-3

WAAustria Vienna2-0

WHFloridsdorfer AC3-1

LARB Salzburg0-3

Marseille

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 8-6

LLWLW

WAAngers5-2

LHOlympiacos0-1

WATroyes2-0

LAMontpellier0-1

LHParis Saint-Germain1-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

SK Sturm Graz

VS

Marseille

—

Power Ranking

#38 ▼1Power Index 67.0

—

Squad value

€189m9th in the league

—

Head coach

Bruno Genesiosince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

28%Market 27%

Draw (X)

25%Market 26%

Away win (2)

48%Market 47%

Over 2.5 goals

56%Market 57%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

1.2 - 1.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: SK Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Marseille (11.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.2%
2. 1 - 29.5%
3. 0 - 19.0%
4. 0 - 27.6%
5. 2 - 16.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Marseille

Goals scored by SK Sturm Graz

01234505.39.07.64.31.80.616.611.29.55.32.30.824.16.95.93.31.40.531.72.92.41.40.60.240.50.90.70.40.20.150.10.20.20.10.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Marseille

Last 5, most recent first

WWLLL

Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 1.6

Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-2

Absences

SK Sturm Graz8 out

Player	Position	Status	Reason	Since
DKDaniil Khudyakov	Goalkeeper	Injured	Lower leg fracture	19/10/2026
ESEmran Soglo	Left-back	Injured	Hamstring injury	8/9/2026
FRFilip Rózga	Attacking midfield	Injured	Muscle injury	20/9/2026
GMGizo Mamageishvili	Attacking midfield	Injured	Foot injury	9/10/2026
LGLeon Grgic	Centre-forward	Injured	Cruciate ligament tear	7/12/2025
NWNelson Weiper	Centre-forward	Injured	Inflammation of pubic bone	1/10/2026
OKOtar Kiteishvili	Attacking midfield	Injured	Calf injury	2/10/2026
SJSeedy Jatta	Centre-forward	Injured	Shoulder injury	13/9/2026

Marseille2 out

Player	Position	Status	Reason	Since
Derek Cornelius	Centre-back	Injured	Hip injury	25/9/2026
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg	Defensive midfield	Injured	Dead leg	5/10/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

SK Sturm Graz

8 out

According to Transfermarkt, 8 players are out.

Marseille

2 W0 D3 L2.0 for1.6 against2 out

Marseille have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.6 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 2 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

13Derek Cornelius

Marseille

close

Position

Defender

Age

28 (25/11/1997)

Nationality

Canada, Jamaica

Height

188 cm

Market value

€2.5m

Contract until

30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances

0Goals

0Assists

9Shots

2Shots on target

0.1xG

0.0xA

0.1npxG (no penalties)

0Key passes

11Fouls committed

7Fouls won

0Offsides

3Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

1.29 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

23Pierre-Emile Højbjerg

Marseille

close

Position

Midfielder

Age

31 (5/8/1995)

Nationality

Denmark, France

Height

185 cm

Market value

€15.0m

Contract until

30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

14Appearances

1Goals

0Assists

17Shots

6Shots on target

0.7xG

0.3xA

0.7npxG (no penalties)

5Key passes

15Fouls committed

8Fouls won

1Offsides

0Yellow cards

0Red cards

How the season reads

0.07 goals per game, 1.21 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Marseille

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLe Havre AC

1/11/2026 · FRA.1HomeToulouse

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLens

Our model gives SK Sturm Graz win 28%, draw 25%, Marseille win 48%. over 2.5 goals 56%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.24 - 1.69. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.