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Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Kairat Almaty vs Panathinaikos, 2026-10-22, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 17:30 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•14:30 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
Kairat AlmatyHOME

Kairat Almaty

VS14:30 GMT

Panathinaikos

PanathinaikosAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.74

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

52%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

50%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Kairat Almaty 0 - 1 Panathinaikos

PROBABILITY

11.9%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Kairat Almaty
18%5.685.25
Draw
23%4.334.00
Panathinaikos
59%1.691.65
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Kairat Almaty or draw
41%2.46—
Panathinaikos or draw
82%1.21—
Either team wins (no draw)
77%1.30—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
76%1.311.22
Under 1.5 goals
24%4.203.80
Over 2.5 goals
52%1.941.82
Under 2.5 goals
48%2.071.98
Over 3.5 goals
30%3.392.80
Under 3.5 goals
70%1.421.38
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
50%1.99—
Not both score (NG)
50%2.01—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER48%
add_circlePanathinaikos
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 1.90
BUILDER39%
add_circlePanathinaikos
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.27
BUILDER37%
add_circlePanathinaikos
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.49
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Kairat Almaty

Kairat Almaty

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · goals 1-9

LLLLD
DARiga FC1-1
LAAnderlecht0-3
LHAnderlecht0-3
LHLevski Sofia0-1
LALevski Sofia0-1
Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 11-3

WWLWW
WHAsteras Tripoli5-1
WHBorac Banja Luka2-1
LAOlympiacos0-1
WAKalamata1-0
WHPanetolikos3-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Kairat Almaty
VS
—
Power Ranking
#110 ▲2Power Index 51.2
—
Squad value
€126m2nd in the league
—
Head coach
Jacob Neestrupsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
18%Market 17%
Draw (X)
23%Market 23%
Away win (2)
59%Market 59%
Over 2.5 goals
52%Market 52%
Both teams to score
50%Market: —
Expected goals
0.9 - 1.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Kairat Almaty 0 - 1 Panathinaikos (11.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 0 - 111.9%
  2. 0 - 210.9%
  3. 1 - 110.7%
  4. 1 - 29.8%
  5. 0 - 36.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Panathinaikos
Goals scored by Kairat Almaty
01234506.411.910.96.73.11.115.810.79.86.02.81.022.64.84.42.71.30.530.81.41.30.80.40.140.20.30.30.20.10.050.00.10.10.00.00.0

Lineups

ProbableUpdated 21/10 20:34 · AI Goal Lab estimate

Predicted from the latest reports. It changes when the official lineup is out.

Kairat Almaty00Panathinaikos0'
Glow = player market value€0€120m+

Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.

  • Kairat Almaty 4-2-3-1: Temirlan Anarbekov, Luis Mata, Aleksandr Martynovich, Aleksandr Shirobokov, Erkin Tapalov, Aleksandr Mrynski, Gustavo Mendonca, Jaakko Oksanen, Marc Gual, Oiva Jukkola, Edmilson Santos
  • Panathinaikos 4-4-2: Inaki Pena, Georgios Kiriakopoulos, Stefan de Vrij, Rick van Drongelen, Davide Calabria, Kings Kangwa, Etienne Kamara, Imran Louza, Santino Andino, Vicente Taborda, Cyriel Dessers

Form

Panathinaikos
Last 5, most recent first
WWLWW
Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 0.6
Home, W-D-L (last 10)6-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-1

Absences

Kairat Almaty2 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
JorginhoCentre-forwardInjuredCruciate ligament tear26/7/2026
Lucas ÁfricoCentre-backInjured18
Panathinaikos5 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Attacking midfieldInjuredMuscle injury18/10/2026
Central midfieldInjuredHamstring injury18/10/2026
Right wingerInjuredTibia and fibula fracture31/7/2026
Centre-backInjuredCruciate ligament tear16/7/2026
Defensive midfieldInjured6

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Kairat Almaty
2 out

According to Transfermarkt, 2 players are out.

Panathinaikos
4 W0 D1 L2.0 for0.6 against5 out

Panathinaikos have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.6 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 5 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Iñaki Peña, Goalkeeper Panathinaikos
1Iñaki Peña
Panathinaikos
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
27 (2/3/1999)
Nationality
Spain
Height
183 cm
Market value
€4.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029
Joined from
FC Barcelona, 1/7/2026, €3.00m

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
9Saves
3Clean sheets
4Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

1.29 saves per game, 0.57 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 43% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

6Stefan de Vrij
Panathinaikos
Position
Defender
Age
34
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
191 cm

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
2Shots
1Shots on target
5Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Rick Van Drongelen, Defender Panathinaikos
55Rick Van Drongelen
Panathinaikos
Position
Defender
Age
27 (20/12/1998)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
188 cm
Market value
€6.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Samsunspor, 19/7/2026, €5.00m

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
8Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.43 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Davide Calabria, Defender Panathinaikos
2Davide Calabria
Panathinaikos
Position
Defender
Age
29 (6/12/1996)
Nationality
Italy
Height
178 cm
Market value
€4.5m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
5Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.14 goals per game, 0.43 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Kings Kangwa, Midfielder Panathinaikos
42Kings Kangwa
Panathinaikos
Position
Midfielder
Age
27 (6/4/1999)
Nationality
Zambia
Height
170 cm
Market value
€3.8m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Hapoel Beer Sheva, 31/7/2026, €3.80m

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
2Goals
1Assists
11Shots
2Shots on target
13Fouls committed
8Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
1Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.13 assists per game, 1.38 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Imran Louza, Midfielder Panathinaikos
26Imran Louza
Panathinaikos
Position
Midfielder
Age
27 (1/5/1999)
Nationality
Morocco, France
Height
178 cm
Market value
€10.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029
Joined from
Watford FC, 28/8/2026, €7.00m

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
5Fouls committed
3Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards
Santino Andino, Forward Panathinaikos
10Santino Andino
Panathinaikos
Position
Forward
Age
20 (25/10/2005)
Nationality
Argentina, Italy
Height
175 cm
Market value
€6.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
5Shots
2Shots on target
15Fouls committed
8Fouls won
2Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.14 assists per game, 0.71 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

20Vicente Taborda
Panathinaikos
Position
Forward
Age
25
Nationality
Argentina
Height
175 cm

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances
3Goals
1Assists
10Shots
5Shots on target
5Fouls committed
5Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.50 goals per game, 0.17 assists per game, 1.67 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Cyriel Dessers, Forward Panathinaikos
9Cyriel Dessers
Panathinaikos
Position
Forward
Age
31 (8/12/1994)
Nationality
Nigeria, Belgium
Height
185 cm
Market value
€3.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
2Goals
0Assists
13Shots
4Shots on target
4Fouls committed
2Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
1Red cards
Adriano Jagusic, Midfielder Panathinaikos
8Adriano Jagusic
Panathinaikos
Position
Midfielder
Age
21 (6/9/2005)
Nationality
Croatia
Market value
€5.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
4Goals
2Assists
7Shots
1Shots on target
3Fouls committed
7Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.50 goals per game, 0.25 assists per game, 0.88 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Azzedine Ounahi, Midfielder Panathinaikos
21Azzedine Ounahi
Panathinaikos
Position
Midfielder
Age
26 (19/4/2000)
Nationality
Morocco
Height
183 cm
Market value
€16.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Girona FC, 2/9/2026, €14.00m

Season stats, all competitions

17Appearances
4Goals
2Assists
35Shots
8Shots on target
9Fouls committed
45Fouls won
1Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.24 goals per game, 0.12 assists per game, 2.06 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

17Pavlos Pantelidis
Panathinaikos
Position
Forward
Age
24
Nationality
Greece

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

15Sverrir Ingason
Panathinaikos
Position
Defender
Age
33
Nationality
Iceland
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Etienne Camara, Midfielder Panathinaikos
22Etienne Camara
Panathinaikos
Position
Midfielder
Age
23 (30/3/2003)
Nationality
France, Guinea
Height
191 cm
Market value
€4.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Royal Charleroi SC, 1/7/2026, €4.00m

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
10Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
4Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.43 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Panathinaikos

22/10/2026 · UEFA.EUROPA.CONFAwayKairat Almaty
25/10/2026 · GRE.1AwayVolos NFC
28/10/2026 · GRE.CUPHomeAris
Panathinaikos

More matches on this day

Our model gives Kairat Almaty win 18%, draw 23%, Panathinaikos win 59%. over 2.5 goals 52%. both teams to score 50%. expected goals 0.90 - 1.84. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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