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Bayer Leverkusen vs OFI Crete prediction, tips and odds

Next match: OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
OFI CreteHOME

OFI Crete

VS16:45 GMT

Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer LeverkusenAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.68

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

71%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

OFI Crete 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen

PROBABILITY

10.5%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.6Exp. cards 4.6
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
OFI Crete
7%13.7711.00
Draw
13%7.717.00
Bayer Leverkusen
80%1.251.24
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
OFI Crete or draw
20%4.94—
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
93%1.08—
Either team wins (no draw)
87%1.15—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
88%1.131.09
Under 1.5 goals
12%8.575.80
Over 2.5 goals
71%1.411.35
Under 2.5 goals
29%3.462.95
Over 3.5 goals
50%2.001.90
Under 3.5 goals
50%2.001.90
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
52%1.93—
Not both score (NG)
48%2.08—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
70%1.43—
Under 7.5 corners
30%3.31—
Over 8.5 corners
59%1.691.53
Under 8.5 corners
41%2.442.33
Over 9.5 corners
48%2.081.96
Under 9.5 corners
52%1.931.75
Over 10.5 corners
38%2.652.55
Under 10.5 corners
62%1.611.45
Over 11.5 corners
29%3.49—
Under 11.5 corners
71%1.40—
Over 12.5 corners
21%4.76—
Under 12.5 corners
79%1.27—
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
93%1.08—
Under 1.5 cards
7%14.01—
Over 2.5 cards
82%1.211.34
Under 2.5 cards
18%5.653.00
Over 3.5 cards
66%1.511.80
Under 3.5 cards
34%2.971.90
Over 4.5 cards
48%2.08—
Under 4.5 cards
52%1.92—
Over 5.5 cards
31%3.19—
Under 5.5 cards
69%1.46—
Over 6.5 cards
19%5.36—
Under 6.5 cards
81%1.23—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER36%
add_circleBayer Leverkusen
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.35
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

OFI Crete

OFI Crete

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 8-11

WDLLL
LAKalamata3-4
LAStade Rennais1-2
LAAEK Athens0-3
DHAsteras Tripoli2-2
WHTSG Hoffenheim2-0
Bayer Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 5W 0D 0L · goals 14-4

WWWWW
WHSC Freiburg2-1
WALech Poznan4-0
WAMainz4-3
WHRB Leipzig2-0
WHNK Celje2-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
#241 ▼1Power Index 30.2
Power Ranking
#18 ▲2Power Index 75.3
€22m6th in the league
Squad value
€520m3rd in the league
Christos Kontissince 29 Oct 2025 · 46 games · 1.57 pts/game
Head coach
Carles Martínezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
7%Market 8%
Draw (X)
13%Market 12%
Away win (2)
80%Market 80%
Over 2.5 goals
71%Market 71%
Both teams to score
52%Market: —
Expected goals
0.8 - 2.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: OFI Crete 0 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen (10.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 0 - 210.5%
  2. 0 - 310.1%
  3. 1 - 28.4%
  4. 1 - 38.0%
  5. 0 - 17.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Bayer Leverkusen
Goals scored by OFI Crete
01234502.57.310.510.17.34.212.05.88.48.05.83.320.82.33.33.22.31.330.20.60.90.80.60.440.00.10.20.20.10.150.00.00.00.00.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

OFI Crete
Last 5, most recent first
LLLDW
Goals per game, for / against1.6 / 2.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-1-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-4
Bayer Leverkusen
Last 5, most recent first
WWWDW
Goals per game, for / against2.8 / 1.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-1

Absences

OFI Crete4 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-forwardInjuredGroin injury9/10/2026
Christos SielisCentre-backInjuredHamstring injury6/10/2026
GoalkeeperInjuredCervical spine injury18/10/2026
Right-backInjuredInflammation of pubic bone15/8/2026
Bayer Leverkusen9 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-forwardInjuredHamstring injury4/10/2026
Left wingerInjuredMuscle injury19/9/2026
Right-backInjuredMuscle injury15/9/2026
Attacking midfieldOutNo eligibility4/9/2026
Defensive midfieldOutNo eligibility4/9/2026
Left wingerInjuredHamstring injury16/10/2026
Right wingerInjuredFitness14/10/2026
Centre-backOutNo eligibility4/9/2026
Centre-forwardOutNo eligibility4/9/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

OFI Crete
1 W1 D3 L1.6 for2.2 against4 out

OFI Crete have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 4 players are out.

Bayer Leverkusen
4 W1 D0 L2.8 for1.2 against9 out

Bayer Leverkusen have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 9 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Aaron Leya Iseka, Forward OFI Crete
9Aaron Leya Iseka
OFI Crete
Position
Forward
Age
28 (15/11/1997)
Nationality
Belgium, DR Congo
Height
183 cm
Market value
€400k
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
2Shots
1Shots on target
3Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Nikos Christogeorgos, Goalkeeper OFI Crete
31Nikos Christogeorgos
OFI Crete
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
26 (3/1/2000)
Nationality
Greece
Height
191 cm
Market value
€1.5m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
33Saves
4Clean sheets
9Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

4.13 saves per game, 1.13 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 50% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Full profile and match history →

4Nikolaos Marinakis
OFI Crete
Position
Defender
Age
33
Nationality
Greece
Height
180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Christian Kofane, Forward Bayer Leverkusen
35Christian Kofane
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Forward
Age
20 (26/7/2006)
Nationality
Cameroon
Height
188 cm
Market value
€40.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
5Goals
0Assists
31Shots
11Shots on target
1.1xG
0.1xA
1.1npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
19Fouls committed
6Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.63 goals per game, 3.88 shots per game, scores 4.0 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

29Eliesse Ben Seghir
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Forward
Age
21
Nationality
Morocco
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
1Shots on target
0Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
20Guela Doué
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Defender
Age
24
Nationality
Ivory Coast
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
2Goals
1Assists
10Shots
3Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
20Fouls committed
8Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 goals per game, 0.10 assists per game, 1.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

7Jonas Hofmann
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Midfielder
Age
29
Nationality
Germany
Height
173 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
1Shots on target
0.0xG
0.1xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
2Key passes
1Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
18Kennet Eichhorn
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Midfielder
Age
17
Nationality
Germany
Height
185 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Martin Terrier, Forward Bayer Leverkusen
11Martin Terrier
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Forward
Age
29 (4/3/1997)
Nationality
France
Height
183 cm
Market value
€8.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
5Shots
3Shots on target
0.4xG
0.0xA
0.4npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
2Fouls committed
0Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
42Montrell Culbreath
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Midfielder
Age
19
Nationality
Germany
Height
173 cm

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
7Shots
3Shots on target
2Fouls committed
7Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.25 assists per game, 1.75 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

15Tim Oermann
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Defender
Age
23
Nationality
Germany
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
22Victor Boniface
Bayer Leverkusen
Position
Forward
Age
25
Nationality
Nigeria
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
1Shots on target
0.2xG
0.1xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

Next matches of OFI Crete

22/10/2026 · UEFA.EUROPAHomeBayer Leverkusen
25/10/2026 · GRE.1HomePAOK
28/10/2026 · GRE.CUPAwayAEL

Next matches of Bayer Leverkusen

25/10/2026 · GER.1AwayTSG Hoffenheim
31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeVfB Stuttgart
8/11/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Cologne
OFI CreteBayer Leverkusen

More matches on this day

Our model gives OFI Crete win 7%, draw 13%, Bayer Leverkusen win 80%. over 2.5 goals 71%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 0.79 - 2.88. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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