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FC Lugano vs Getafe prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Getafe vs FC Lugano, 2026-10-22, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•16:45 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
GetafeHOME

Getafe

VS16:45 GMT

FC Lugano

FC LuganoAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.49

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

45%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

47%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Getafe 1 - 0 FC Lugano

PROBABILITY

13.4%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Getafe
54%1.841.80
Draw
26%3.903.60
FC Lugano
20%4.964.70
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Getafe or draw
80%1.25—
FC Lugano or draw
46%2.18—
Either team wins (no draw)
74%1.34—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
71%1.401.30
Under 1.5 goals
29%3.503.15
Over 2.5 goals
45%2.212.10
Under 2.5 goals
55%1.831.75
Over 3.5 goals
24%4.163.35
Under 3.5 goals
76%1.321.28
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
47%2.12—
Not both score (NG)
53%1.89—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%
add_circleGetafe
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.20
BUILDER39%
add_circleGetafe
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.30
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Getafe

Getafe

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 3-6

LWLDD
DHRayo Vallecano1-1
DACSU Craiova1-1
LABarcelona0-3
WHMálaga1-0
LAReal Betis0-1
FC Lugano

FC Lugano

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 9-9

DWDLW
WHRed Star Belgrade3-2
LHHellas Verona1-3
DAMaccabi Tel-Aviv1-1
WHMaccabi Tel-Aviv2-1
DANSI Runavik2-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
FC Lugano
#86Power Index 54.5
Power Ranking
—
€95m15th in the league
Squad value
—
José Bordalássince 29 Apr 2023 · 144 games · 1.29 pts/game
Head coach
—

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
54%Market 54%
Draw (X)
26%Market 26%
Away win (2)
20%Market 20%
Over 2.5 goals
45%Market 46%
Both teams to score
47%Market: —
Expected goals
1.6 - 0.9

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Getafe 1 - 0 FC Lugano (13.4%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 013.4%
  2. 1 - 111.7%
  3. 2 - 010.7%
  4. 2 - 19.5%
  5. 0 - 08.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by FC Lugano
Goals scored by Getafe
01234508.37.33.20.90.20.0113.411.75.21.50.30.1210.79.54.21.20.30.035.85.12.20.70.10.042.32.00.90.30.10.050.70.70.30.10.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Getafe
Last 5, most recent first
DLWLD
Goals per game, for / against0.6 / 1.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-3-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-0-4

Absences

Getafe5 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-forwardInjuredKnee injury8/8/2026
Centre-forwardInjuredSore muscles12/10/2026
Left-backInjured8
Left wingerInjuredKnee injury21/4/2026
Centre-backInjuredHamstring injury10/10/2026
FC Lugano2 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Bekhruz KarimovRight-backInjured7
Claudio CassanoAttacking midfieldInjuredCruciate ligament tear26/1/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Getafe
1 W2 D2 L0.6 for1.2 against5 out

Getafe have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 5 players are out.

FC Lugano
2 out

According to Transfermarkt, 2 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

18Christantus Uche
Getafe
Position
Midfielder
Age
23
Nationality
Nigeria
Height
191 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Ivan Azón, Forward Getafe
20Ivan Azón
Getafe
Position
Forward
Age
23 (24/12/2002)
Nationality
Spain
Height
183 cm
Market value
€7.5m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
8Shots
5Shots on target
0.7xG
0.3xA
0.7npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
5Fouls committed
5Fouls won
3Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.25 assists per game, 2.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Johan Mojica, Defender Getafe
22Johan Mojica
Getafe
Position
Defender
Age
34 (21/8/1992)
Nationality
Colombia, Spain
Height
185 cm
Market value
€1.5m
Contract until
30/6/2027
Joined from
RCD Mallorca, 13/8/2026, €500k

Season stats, all competitions

14Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
9Shots
2Shots on target
0.2xG
0.4xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
9Key passes
6Fouls committed
22Fouls won
1Offsides
5Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.64 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

7Juanmi
Getafe
Position
Forward
Age
33
Nationality
Spain
Height
173 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Zaid Romero, Defender Getafe
24Zaid Romero
Getafe
Position
Defender
Age
26 (15/12/1999)
Nationality
Argentina, Syria
Height
193 cm
Market value
€5.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Club Brugge KV, 6/7/2026, €5.00m

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
0.1xG
0.0xA
0.1npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
5Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
1Red cards

How the season reads

0.14 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Getafe

25/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayAthletic Club
1/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeSevilla
8/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayVillarreal
Getafe

More matches on this day

Our model gives Getafe win 54%, draw 26%, FC Lugano win 20%. over 2.5 goals 45%. both teams to score 47%. expected goals 1.61 - 0.88. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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