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Lyon vs TSG Hoffenheim prediction, tips and odds

Next match: TSG Hoffenheim vs Lyon, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
TSG HoffenheimHOME

TSG Hoffenheim

VS19:00 GMT

Lyon

LyonAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.24

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

63%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

64%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 8.5 corners

MODEL PROBABILITY

70%

ODDS

1.41

All Tips
query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
PRIMARY PICK70%

Over 8.5 corners

Expected corners: TSG Hoffenheim 6.2, Lyon 4.5, total 10.7 (line 8.5).

Corners-for rate vs average: TSG Hoffenheim x1.18, Lyon x1.14 (sample 25 and 25 equivalent matches).

Odds: 1.41
scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

TSG Hoffenheim 1 - 1 Lyon

PROBABILITY

10.1%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.7Exp. cards 3.8
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
TSG Hoffenheim
48%2.072.00
Draw
23%4.314.00
Lyon
29%3.513.30
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
TSG Hoffenheim or draw
71%1.40—
Lyon or draw
52%1.93—
Either team wins (no draw)
77%1.30—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
84%1.191.15
Under 1.5 goals
16%6.154.50
Over 2.5 goals
63%1.591.52
Under 2.5 goals
37%2.692.45
Over 3.5 goals
41%2.462.25
Under 3.5 goals
59%1.691.65
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
64%1.57—
Not both score (NG)
36%2.75—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
79%1.27—
Under 7.5 corners
21%4.75—
Over 8.5 corners
70%1.431.41
Under 8.5 corners
30%3.312.70
Over 9.5 corners
60%1.681.73
Under 9.5 corners
40%2.481.99
Over 10.5 corners
49%2.032.20
Under 10.5 corners
51%1.971.60
Over 11.5 corners
39%2.542.90
Under 11.5 corners
61%1.651.36
Over 12.5 corners
30%3.28—
Under 12.5 corners
70%1.44—
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
88%1.13—
Under 1.5 cards
12%8.50—
Over 2.5 cards
73%1.38—
Under 2.5 cards
27%3.66—
Over 3.5 cards
53%1.891.51
Under 3.5 cards
47%2.122.37
Over 4.5 cards
34%2.942.17
Under 4.5 cards
66%1.521.61
Over 5.5 cards
20%5.09—
Under 5.5 cards
80%1.24—
Over 6.5 cards
10%9.54—
Under 6.5 cards
90%1.12—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%
add_circleTSG Hoffenheim
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.25
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

TSG Hoffenheim

TSG Hoffenheim

Last 5: 1W 0D 4L · goals 9-13

LLLLW
WABorussia Mönchengladbach2-1
LHBesiktas2-3
LHHamburg SV2-3
LHSV Elversberg2-3
LASC Paderborn 071-3
Lyon

Lyon

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 12-6

WWLWW
WHNice2-1
WHCrystal Palace3-2
LALens1-2
WHStade Rennais4-0
WAAnderlecht2-1

Head-to-head

2024-11-07
TSG Hoffenheim2 - 2Lyon
2018-11-07
Lyon2 - 2TSG Hoffenheim
2018-10-23
TSG Hoffenheim3 - 3Lyon
compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
#78 ▼3Power Index 56.7
Power Ranking
#39 ▼1Power Index 66.6
€288m6th in the league
Squad value
€264m4th in the league
Christian Ilzersince 15 Nov 2024 · 74 games · 1.35 pts/game
Head coach
Paulo Fonsecasince 31 Jan 2025 · 80 games · 1.86 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
48%Market 48%
Draw (X)
23%Market 23%
Away win (2)
29%Market 28%
Over 2.5 goals
63%Market 63%
Both teams to score
64%Market: —
Expected goals
1.9 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: TSG Hoffenheim 1 - 1 Lyon (10.1%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 110.1%
  2. 2 - 19.3%
  3. 1 - 07.2%
  4. 1 - 27.0%
  5. 2 - 06.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Lyon
Goals scored by TSG Hoffenheim
01234503.95.43.81.70.60.217.210.17.03.21.10.326.79.36.53.01.00.334.25.84.01.80.60.241.92.71.90.90.30.150.71.00.70.30.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

TSG Hoffenheim
Last 5, most recent first
WLLWL
Goals per game, for / against1.8 / 2.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-2
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-2
Lyon
Last 5, most recent first
WLWDW
Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 0.8
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-1-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-1

Absences

TSG Hoffenheim4 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-backInjuredFoot injury13/10/2026
Defensive midfieldOutNo eligibility4/9/2026
Central midfieldInjuredMeniscus injury17/10/2026
Right wingerInjuredHamstring injury9/10/2026
Lyon2 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Left-backInjuredCruciate ligament tear8/10/2026
Left-backInjuredMuscle injury8/10/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

TSG Hoffenheim
2 W0 D3 L1.8 for2.2 against4 out

TSG Hoffenheim have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 4 players are out.

Lyon
3 W1 D1 L2.0 for0.8 against2 out

Lyon have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 2 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Albian Hajdari, Defender TSG Hoffenheim
21Albian Hajdari
TSG Hoffenheim
Position
Defender
Age
23 (18/5/2003)
Nationality
Kosovo, Switzerland
Height
188 cm
Market value
€25.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.1xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
20Fouls committed
3Fouls won
2Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.38 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

16Luis Engelns
TSG Hoffenheim
Position
Midfielder
Age
19
Nationality
Germany
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
6Fouls committed
7Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards
Nathan De Cat, Midfielder TSG Hoffenheim
17Nathan De Cat
TSG Hoffenheim
Position
Midfielder
Age
18 (19/7/2008)
Nationality
Belgium
Height
191 cm
Market value
€27.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
RSC Anderlecht, 10/7/2026, €18.50m

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
4Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
6Fouls committed
1Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards
Patrick Wimmer, Midfielder TSG Hoffenheim
8Patrick Wimmer
TSG Hoffenheim
Position
Midfielder
Age
25 (30/5/2001)
Nationality
Austria
Height
183 cm
Market value
€12.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
VfL Wolfsburg, 1/7/2026, €10.00m

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
2Goals
3Assists
24Shots
8Shots on target
0.7xG
1.0xA
0.7npxG (no penalties)
5Key passes
24Fouls committed
15Fouls won
5Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 goals per game, 0.30 assists per game, 2.40 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Mohamed Ouédraogo, Defender Lyon
76Mohamed Ouédraogo
Lyon
Position
Defender
Age
23 (2/1/2003)
Nationality
Burkina Faso
Height
183 cm
Market value
€2.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
SCR Altach, 3/7/2026, €2.20m

Season stats, all competitions

3Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
1Shots
1Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
5Fouls committed
3Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
1Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 assists per game, 0.33 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Nicolás Tagliafico, Defender Lyon
3Nicolás Tagliafico
Lyon
Position
Defender
Age
34 (31/8/1992)
Nationality
Argentina, Italy
Height
173 cm
Market value
€4.0m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

9Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
13Fouls committed
19Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

Next matches of TSG Hoffenheim

25/10/2026 · GER.1HomeBayer Leverkusen
31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayWerder Bremen
8/11/2026 · GER.1HomeSchalke 04

Next matches of Lyon

25/10/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis Saint-Germain
31/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeAngers
8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayBrest
TSG HoffenheimLyon

More matches on this day

Our model gives TSG Hoffenheim win 48%, draw 23%, Lyon win 29%. over 2.5 goals 63%. both teams to score 64%. expected goals 1.86 - 1.39. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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