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Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Lillestrom vs Real Sociedad, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
LillestromHOME

Lillestrom

VS19:00 GMT

Real Sociedad

Real SociedadAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.08

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

54%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lillestrom 0 - 2 Real Sociedad

PROBABILITY

10.5%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.6Exp. cards 4.3
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Lillestrom
15%6.555.75
Draw
20%4.944.70
Real Sociedad
64%1.551.51
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Lillestrom or draw
36%2.81—
Real Sociedad or draw
85%1.18—
Either team wins (no draw)
80%1.25—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
82%1.231.16
Under 1.5 goals
18%5.414.30
Over 2.5 goals
59%1.681.63
Under 2.5 goals
41%2.472.25
Over 3.5 goals
37%2.702.45
Under 3.5 goals
63%1.591.52
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
54%1.85—
Not both score (NG)
46%2.18—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
69%1.44—
Under 7.5 corners
31%3.25—
Over 8.5 corners
58%1.711.42
Under 8.5 corners
42%2.412.65
Over 9.5 corners
47%2.111.73
Under 9.5 corners
53%1.901.99
Over 10.5 corners
37%2.692.20
Under 10.5 corners
63%1.591.60
Over 11.5 corners
28%3.562.90
Under 11.5 corners
72%1.391.36
Over 12.5 corners
21%4.87—
Under 12.5 corners
79%1.26—
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
92%1.09—
Under 1.5 cards
8%11.97—
Over 2.5 cards
80%1.261.36
Under 2.5 cards
20%4.912.90
Over 3.5 cards
62%1.611.85
Under 3.5 cards
38%2.651.85
Over 4.5 cards
44%2.29—
Under 4.5 cards
56%1.77—
Over 5.5 cards
27%3.65—
Under 5.5 cards
73%1.38—
Over 6.5 cards
16%6.35—
Under 6.5 cards
84%1.19—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER44%
add_circleReal Sociedad
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.13
BUILDER37%
add_circleReal Sociedad
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.30
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lillestrom

Lillestrom

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 6-8

LLDDW
WASandefjord2-0
DASparta Prague1-1
DHMolde2-2
LAViking FK0-3
LHTorreense1-2
Real Sociedad

Real Sociedad

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 13-9

LWWDW
WAMálaga5-2
DAUnion St.-Gilloise1-1
WHDeportivo3-2
WAValencia3-2
LHAFC Bournemouth1-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Lillestrom
VS
—
Power Ranking
#46 ▲3Power Index 64.6
—
Squad value
€292m5th in the league
—
Head coach
Pellegrino Matarazzosince 21 Dec 2025 · 37 games · 1.65 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
15%Market 16%
Draw (X)
20%Market 20%
Away win (2)
64%Market 65%
Over 2.5 goals
59%Market 59%
Both teams to score
54%Market: —
Expected goals
0.9 - 2.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lillestrom 0 - 2 Real Sociedad (10.5%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 0 - 210.5%
  2. 1 - 29.9%
  3. 0 - 19.8%
  4. 1 - 19.3%
  5. 0 - 37.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Real Sociedad
Goals scored by Lillestrom
01234504.69.810.57.54.01.714.39.39.97.13.81.622.04.44.73.31.80.830.61.41.51.00.60.240.20.30.30.20.10.150.00.10.10.00.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Real Sociedad
Last 5, most recent first
WWWLW
Goals per game, for / against2.8 / 2.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-1
Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-2

Absences

Real Sociedad4 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Right-backInjuredCalf injury7/10/2026
Centre-backInjuredAnkle injury12/10/2026
Central midfieldInjured8
Right-backInjuredCruciate ligament tear22/2/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Lillestrom
0 out

No absences are recorded.

Real Sociedad
4 W0 D1 L2.8 for2.2 against4 out

Real Sociedad have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.8 and conceding 2.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 4 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Jon Aramburu, Defender Real Sociedad
2Jon Aramburu
Real Sociedad
Position
Defender
Age
24 (23/7/2002)
Nationality
Venezuela, Spain
Height
175 cm
Market value
€15.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
5Shots
2Shots on target
0.1xG
0.1xA
0.1npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
37Fouls committed
24Fouls won
2Offsides
5Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.38 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Luken Beitia, Defender Real Sociedad
34Luken Beitia
Real Sociedad
Position
Defender
Age
22 (30/6/2004)
Nationality
Spain
Height
191 cm
Market value
€2.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

5Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
3Shots
1Shots on target
0.2xG
0.4xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
3Key passes
2Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 assists per game, 0.60 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Yangel Herrera, Midfielder Real Sociedad
21Yangel Herrera
Real Sociedad
Position
Midfielder
Age
28 (7/1/1998)
Nationality
Venezuela, Spain
Height
183 cm
Market value
€6.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
10Shots
2Shots on target
0.3xG
0.3xA
0.3npxG (no penalties)
2Key passes
24Fouls committed
17Fouls won
0Offsides
6Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.10 goals per game, 1.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

20Álvaro Odriozola
Real Sociedad
Position
Defender
Age
30
Nationality
Spain
Height
175 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Next matches of Real Sociedad

25/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeLevante
1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayAthletic Club
8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeRayo Vallecano
Real Sociedad

More matches on this day

Our model gives Lillestrom win 15%, draw 20%, Real Sociedad win 64%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 54%. expected goals 0.94 - 2.14. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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