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Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
Ararat-ArmeniaHOME

Ararat-Armenia

VS16:45 GMT

AZ Alkmaar

AZ AlkmaarAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.17

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

61%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

56%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Ararat-Armenia 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar

PROBABILITY

10.0%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Ararat-Armenia
16%6.315.75
Draw
20%4.984.60
AZ Alkmaar
64%1.561.53
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Ararat-Armenia or draw
36%2.78—
AZ Alkmaar or draw
84%1.19—
Either team wins (no draw)
80%1.25—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
83%1.211.15
Under 1.5 goals
17%5.804.40
Over 2.5 goals
61%1.631.55
Under 2.5 goals
39%2.592.35
Over 3.5 goals
39%2.562.35
Under 3.5 goals
61%1.641.60
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
56%1.78—
Not both score (NG)
44%2.28—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER45%
add_circleAZ Alkmaar
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.06
BUILDER36%
add_circleAZ Alkmaar
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.44
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Ararat-Armenia

Ararat-Armenia

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 8-8

DWLWL
LAJagiellonia Bialystok1-3
WAArarat Yerevan4-0
LHSparta Prague1-4
WHCSU Craiova1-0
DACSU Craiova1-1
AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 5-6

LWLWD
DASC Cambuur2-2
WHHapoel Be'er2-1
LAFeyenoord Rotterdam0-2
WHTelstar1-0
LASunderland0-1

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Ararat-Armenia
VS
—
Power Ranking
#71 ▼2Power Index 58.0
—
Squad value
€161m4th in the league
—
Head coach
Lee-Roy Echteldsince 18 Jan 2026 · 37 games · 1.86 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
16%Market 16%
Draw (X)
20%Market 20%
Away win (2)
64%Market 64%
Over 2.5 goals
61%Market 61%
Both teams to score
56%Market: —
Expected goals
1.0 - 2.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Ararat-Armenia 0 - 2 AZ Alkmaar (10.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 0 - 210.0%
  2. 1 - 29.9%
  3. 0 - 19.1%
  4. 1 - 19.1%
  5. 0 - 37.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AZ Alkmaar
Goals scored by Ararat-Armenia
01234504.29.110.07.23.91.714.29.19.97.23.91.722.14.54.93.61.90.830.71.51.61.20.60.340.20.40.40.30.20.150.00.10.10.10.00.0

Lineups

ProbableUpdated 21/10 19:15 · AI Goal Lab estimate

Predicted from the latest reports. It changes when the official lineup is out.

Ararat-Armenia00AZ Alkmaar0'
Glow = player market value€0€120m+

Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.

  • Ararat-Armenia 4-3-3: Joao Bravim, Edgar Grigoryan, Luis Felipe, Bruno Wilson, Hugo Oliveira, Juan Balanta, Maxence Carlier, Alwyn Tera, Artur Serobyan, Sandro Lima, Zidane Banjaqui
  • AZ Alkmaar 4-3-3: Jari De Busser, Mateo Chavez, Lewis Schouten, Wouter Goes, Elijah Dijkstra, Jordy Clasie, Peer Koopmeiners, Ayoub Oufkir, Calvin Stengs, Ro-Zangelo Daal, Mexx Meerdink

Form

AZ Alkmaar
Last 5, most recent first
DLWDW
Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 1.4
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-1-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-1-1

Absences

AZ Alkmaar4 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-forwardInjuredunknown injury5/10/2026
Defensive midfieldInjuredminor knock20/10/2026
Attacking midfieldInjuredunknown injury7/10/2026
Defensive midfieldInjuredCruciate ligament injury1/3/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Ararat-Armenia
0 out

No absences are recorded.

AZ Alkmaar
2 W2 D1 L1.4 for1.4 against4 out

AZ Alkmaar have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 4 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Jari De Busser, Goalkeeper AZ Alkmaar
28Jari De Busser
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
26 (21/10/1999)
Nationality
Belgium
Height
191 cm
Market value
€5.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
Go Ahead Eagles, 1/7/2026, ?

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances
25Saves
4Clean sheets
10Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

2.27 saves per game, 0.91 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 36% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Mateo Chávez, Defender AZ Alkmaar
5Mateo Chávez
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Defender
Age
22 (12/5/2004)
Nationality
Mexico
Height
178 cm
Market value
€8.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances
2Goals
3Assists
15Shots
7Shots on target
24Fouls committed
13Fouls won
4Offsides
3Yellow cards
1Red cards

How the season reads

0.15 goals per game, 0.23 assists per game, 1.15 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Lewis Schouten, Defender AZ Alkmaar
4Lewis Schouten
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Defender
Age
22 (4/2/2004)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
191 cm
Market value
€4.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
7Shots
1Shots on target
9Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.10 goals per game, 0.70 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

3Wouter Goes
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Defender
Age
22
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

16Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
6Shots
0Shots on target
16Fouls committed
11Fouls won
0Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.06 assists per game, 0.38 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Elijah Dijkstra, Defender AZ Alkmaar
22Elijah Dijkstra
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Defender
Age
20 (5/8/2006)
Nationality
Netherlands, Curacao
Height
173 cm
Market value
€10.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

14Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
11Shots
2Shots on target
4Fouls committed
10Fouls won
3Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.07 goals per game, 0.07 assists per game, 0.79 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

8Jordy Clasie
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Midfielder
Age
35
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
170 cm

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
3Shots
1Shots on target
1Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.75 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Peer Koopmeiners, Midfielder AZ Alkmaar
6Peer Koopmeiners
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Midfielder
Age
26 (4/5/2000)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
185 cm
Market value
€15.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances
2Goals
1Assists
13Shots
7Shots on target
18Fouls committed
9Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.18 goals per game, 0.09 assists per game, 1.18 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Ayoub Oufkir, Forward AZ Alkmaar
24Ayoub Oufkir
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Forward
Age
20 (4/1/2006)
Nationality
Netherlands, Morocco
Height
170 cm
Market value
€3.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
6Goals
0Assists
35Shots
15Shots on target
20Fouls committed
11Fouls won
2Offsides
6Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.60 goals per game, 3.50 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Calvin Stengs, Midfielder AZ Alkmaar
14Calvin Stengs
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Midfielder
Age
27 (18/12/1998)
Nationality
Netherlands, Suriname
Height
183 cm
Market value
€4.5m
Contract until
30/6/2027
Joined from
Feyenoord Rotterdam, 28/7/2026, free transfer

Season stats, all competitions

3Appearances
1Goals
2Assists
11Shots
4Shots on target
8Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 goals per game, 0.67 assists per game, 3.67 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

11Ro-Zangelo Daal
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Forward
Age
22
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
173 cm

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances
5Goals
1Assists
29Shots
16Shots on target
9Fouls committed
20Fouls won
2Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.42 goals per game, 0.08 assists per game, 2.42 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Mexx Meerdink, Forward AZ Alkmaar
9Mexx Meerdink
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Forward
Age
23 (24/7/2003)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
183 cm
Market value
€13.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances
7Goals
2Assists
47Shots
21Shots on target
17Fouls committed
25Fouls won
9Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.54 goals per game, 0.15 assists per game, 3.62 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Jizz Hornkamp, Forward AZ Alkmaar
19Jizz Hornkamp
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Forward
Age
28 (7/3/1998)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
183 cm
Market value
€2.5m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
2Goals
0Assists
7Shots
6Shots on target
2Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Kees Smit, Midfielder AZ Alkmaar
10Kees Smit
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Midfielder
Age
20 (20/1/2006)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
180 cm
Market value
€25.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

14Appearances
1Goals
4Assists
28Shots
6Shots on target
13Fouls committed
8Fouls won
3Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.07 goals per game, 0.29 assists per game, 2.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

16Stije Resink
AZ Alkmaar
Position
Midfielder
Age
23
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Next matches of AZ Alkmaar

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Twente
31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayAjax Amsterdam
8/11/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Groningen
AZ Alkmaar

More matches on this day

Our model gives Ararat-Armenia win 16%, draw 20%, AZ Alkmaar win 64%. over 2.5 goals 61%. both teams to score 56%. expected goals 0.99 - 2.18. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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