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AC Milan vs AFC Bournemouth prediction, tips and odds

Next match: AFC Bournemouth vs AC Milan, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
AFC BournemouthHOME

AFC Bournemouth

VS19:00 GMT

AC Milan

AC MilanAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.92

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

56%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 AC Milan

PROBABILITY

11.3%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.0Exp. cards 4.0
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
AFC Bournemouth
46%2.152.10
Draw
25%4.033.70
AC Milan
29%3.483.35
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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
AFC Bournemouth or draw
71%1.40—
AC Milan or draw
54%1.87—
Either team wins (no draw)
75%1.33—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
79%1.261.20
Under 1.5 goals
21%4.804.30
Over 2.5 goals
56%1.791.72
Under 2.5 goals
44%2.262.12
Over 3.5 goals
33%2.992.60
Under 3.5 goals
67%1.501.45
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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
58%1.71—
Not both score (NG)
42%2.40—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
64%1.57—
Under 7.5 corners
36%2.76—
Over 8.5 corners
52%1.911.52
Under 8.5 corners
48%2.102.35
Over 9.5 corners
41%2.411.94
Under 9.5 corners
59%1.711.77
Over 10.5 corners
32%3.172.52
Under 10.5 corners
68%1.461.46
Over 11.5 corners
23%4.32—
Under 11.5 corners
77%1.30—
Over 12.5 corners
16%6.10—
Under 12.5 corners
84%1.20—
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
89%1.12—
Under 1.5 cards
11%9.33—
Over 2.5 cards
75%1.34—
Under 2.5 cards
25%3.96—
Over 3.5 cards
56%1.801.65
Under 3.5 cards
44%2.252.10
Over 4.5 cards
37%2.732.52
Under 4.5 cards
63%1.581.46
Over 5.5 cards
22%4.62—
Under 5.5 cards
78%1.28—
Over 6.5 cards
12%8.50—
Under 6.5 cards
88%1.13—
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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER38%
add_circleAFC Bournemouth
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.45
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AFC Bournemouth

AFC Bournemouth

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 8-7

WLLWW
WHSunderland2-0
WHSK Sturm Graz3-0
LAChelsea1-5
LHLiverpool0-1
WAReal Sociedad2-1
AC Milan

AC Milan

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 11-5

LWDWW
WHAtalanta3-2
WARB Salzburg4-0
DASassuolo1-1
WHLecce3-0
LHBenfica0-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

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Team comparison

VS
#21Power Index 74.1
Power Ranking
#37 ▲5Power Index 67.2
€574m11th in the league
Squad value
€503m4th in the league
Marco Rosesince 1 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 1.50 pts/game
Head coach
Ruben Amorimsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
46%Market 46%
Draw (X)
25%Market 26%
Away win (2)
29%Market 28%
Over 2.5 goals
56%Market 56%
Both teams to score
58%Market: —
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 1 AC Milan (11.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 111.3%
  2. 2 - 19.4%
  3. 1 - 09.0%
  4. 2 - 07.4%
  5. 1 - 27.1%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AC Milan
Goals scored by AFC Bournemouth
01234505.46.84.31.80.60.119.011.37.13.00.90.227.49.45.92.50.80.234.15.23.31.40.40.141.72.11.40.60.20.050.60.70.40.20.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

AFC Bournemouth
Last 5, most recent first
WLLDD
Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 2.0
Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-1
Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-1-2
AC Milan
Last 5, most recent first
WDWDD
Goals per game, for / against2.0 / 1.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-3-0

Absences

AFC Bournemouth3 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Central midfieldInjuredHamstring injury3/10/2026
Right-backInjuredHamstring injury24/7/2026
Centre-forwardInjuredFoot injury29/7/2026
AC Milan2 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Right midfieldInjuredAnkle surgery29/9/2026
Centre-backInjuredHamstring strain12/10/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

AFC Bournemouth
1 W2 D2 L1.4 for2.0 against3 out

AFC Bournemouth have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.0 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 3 players are out.

AC Milan
2 W3 D0 L2.0 for1.2 against2 out

AC Milan have 2 wins, 3 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.2 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 2 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

8Alex Scott
AFC Bournemouth
Position
Midfielder
Age
23
Nationality
England
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
10Shots
1Shots on target
0.6xG
0.5xA
0.6npxG (no penalties)
11Key passes
6Fouls committed
23Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.14 goals per game, 0.14 assists per game, 1.43 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

2Julián Araujo
AFC Bournemouth
Position
Defender
Age
25
Nationality
Mexico
Height
175 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

22Junior Kroupi
AFC Bournemouth
Position
Forward
Age
20
Nationality
France
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
3Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards
56Alexis Saelemaekers
AC Milan
Position
Forward
Age
27
Nationality
Belgium
Height
180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

5Appearances
1Goals
2Assists
9Shots
2Shots on target
0.2xG
1.4xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
9Fouls committed
11Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 goals per game, 0.40 assists per game, 1.80 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Matteo Gabbia, Defender AC Milan
46Matteo Gabbia
AC Milan
Position
Defender
Age
26 (21/10/1999)
Nationality
Italy
Height
185 cm
Market value
€17.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
1Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

Next matches of AFC Bournemouth

25/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayManchester United
31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeLeeds United
8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayIpswich Town

Next matches of AC Milan

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayUdinese
28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeBologna
31/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeInternazionale
AFC BournemouthAC Milan

More matches on this day

Our model gives AFC Bournemouth win 46%, draw 25%, AC Milan win 29%. over 2.5 goals 56%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.66 - 1.26. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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