Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.
Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.
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Algorithmic Value
FREE
NO PICK
No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.
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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)
FC Cincinnati 2 - 1 D.C. United
PROBABILITY
9.3%
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Full market board
Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.
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Match result (1X2)
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
FC Cincinnati
58%1.741.67
Draw
20%4.914.50
D.C. United
22%4.543.90
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Double chance
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
FC Cincinnati or draw
78%1.28—
D.C. United or draw
42%2.36—
Either team wins (no draw)
80%1.26—
sports_soccer
Total goals
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
88%1.141.10
Under 1.5 goals
12%8.175.50
Over 2.5 goals
70%1.431.37
Under 2.5 goals
30%3.322.85
Over 3.5 goals
49%2.061.90
Under 3.5 goals
51%1.951.85
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Both teams to score
SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
67%1.50—
Not both score (NG)
33%3.00—
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Bet builder ideas
Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.
BUILDER45%
add_circleFC Cincinnati
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.05
history
Team form & head-to-head
Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.
Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking
analytics
What our model says vs what the market says
Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.
Home win (1)
58%Market 57%
Draw (X)
20%Market 20%
Away win (2)
22%Market 23%
Over 2.5 goals
70%Market 70%
Both teams to score
67%Market: —
Expected goals
2.3 - 1.4
Most likely final scores
Most likely: FC Cincinnati 2 - 1 D.C. United (9.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.
2 - 19.3%
1 - 18.3%
3 - 17.0%
2 - 06.9%
2 - 26.3%
Every score
Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.
Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.
FC Cincinnati 3-5-2: Roman Celentano, Andrei Chirila, Miles Robinson, Kyle Smith, Ender Echenique, Gerardo Valenzuela, Evander, Obinna Nwobodo, Pavel Bucha, Kévin Denkey, Ayoub Jabbari
D.C. United 4-3-3: Sean Johnson, Keisuke Kurokawa, Andre Dozzell, Lucas Bartlett, Kimito Nono, João Peglow, Matti Peltola, Brandon Servania, Nathan Ordaz, Jackson Hopkins, Louis Munteanu
Player value glow€0€120m+
FC Cincinnati3-5-2
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
18
26
29
4
84
–
–
88
18
12
1
1
0.0
–
12
29
28
0
1
0.0
–
24
22
23
1
3
0.0
–
66
22
24
1
10
0.0
–
22
22
24
2
10
0.0
–
10
28
5
3
2
0.0
–
5
29
22
0
6
0.0
–
20
28
32
8
8
0.0
–
9
25
35
21
7
0.0
–
99
26
8
4
2
0.0
–
Substitutes
17
24
20
9
2
0.0
–
4
34
12
1
1
0.0
–
15
31
11
0
0
0.0
–
16
31
17
12
3
0.0
–
13
30
8
0
0
0.0
–
27
30
9
0
1
0.0
–
2
32
2
1
1
0.0
–
29
26
22
2
5
0.0
–
D.C. United4-3-3
#
Player
Age
Apps
Goals
Assists
xG
Value
Starting XI
1
37
–
–
–
–
–
6
29
–
–
–
–
–
21
27
–
–
–
–
–
3
29
–
–
–
–
–
2
24
–
–
–
–
–
7
24
–
–
–
–
–
4
24
–
–
–
–
–
23
27
–
–
–
–
–
22
22
–
–
–
–
–
25
22
–
–
–
–
–
11
24
–
–
–
–
–
Substitutes
13
29
–
–
–
–
–
77
24
–
–
–
–
–
26
32
–
–
–
–
–
27
22
–
–
–
–
–
8
30
–
–
–
–
–
48
19
–
–
–
–
–
9
28
–
–
–
–
–
5
28
–
–
–
–
–
Season stats, all competitions. Value: Transfermarkt. Click a player for the full card.
Our model gives FC Cincinnati win 58%, draw 20%, D.C. United win 22%. over 2.5 goals 70%. both teams to score 67%. expected goals 2.26 - 1.35. largest gap to the market: D.C. United win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.
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