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Lech Poznan vs Sunderland prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
Lech PoznanHOME

Lech Poznan

VS16:45 GMT

Sunderland

SunderlandAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.80

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

53%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

69%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips
query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
PRIMARY PICK69%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 69%.

Odds: 1.40
scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Lech Poznan 0 - 1 Sunderland

PROBABILITY

11.3%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Lech Poznan
19%5.354.80
Draw
23%4.324.10
Sunderland
58%1.721.67
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Lech Poznan or draw
42%2.39—
Sunderland or draw
81%1.23—
Either team wins (no draw)
77%1.30—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
77%1.301.22
Under 1.5 goals
23%4.393.80
Over 2.5 goals
53%1.891.80
Under 2.5 goals
47%2.132.00
Over 3.5 goals
31%3.252.75
Under 3.5 goals
69%1.441.40
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
52%1.92—
Not both score (NG)
48%2.08—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%
add_circleSunderland
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 1.93
BUILDER38%
add_circleSunderland
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.33
BUILDER37%
add_circleSunderland
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.51
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 11-12

WDLDL
LHBayer Leverkusen0-4
DHEnergie Cottbus2-2
LACrystal Palace0-4
DAFC Thun2-2
WHFC Thun7-0
Sunderland

Sunderland

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 6-10

WLLWL
LAAFC Bournemouth0-2
WATorreense2-1
LHBrighton & Hove Albion0-2
LAManchester City3-5
WHAZ Alkmaar1-0

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Lech Poznan
VS
—
Power Ranking
#76 ▲2Power Index 56.9
—
Squad value
€421m14th in the league
—
Head coach
Régis Le Brissince 1 Jul 2024 · 103 games · 1.51 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
19%Market 19%
Draw (X)
23%Market 23%
Away win (2)
58%Market 58%
Over 2.5 goals
53%Market 53%
Both teams to score
52%Market: —
Expected goals
1.0 - 1.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Lech Poznan 0 - 1 Sunderland (11.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 0 - 111.3%
  2. 1 - 110.7%
  3. 0 - 210.4%
  4. 1 - 29.9%
  5. 0 - 36.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Sunderland
Goals scored by Lech Poznan
01234506.111.310.46.43.01.115.810.79.96.12.81.022.75.14.72.91.30.530.91.61.50.90.40.240.20.40.40.20.10.050.00.10.10.00.00.0

Lineups

ProbableUpdated 21/10 19:00 · AI Goal Lab estimate

Predicted from the latest reports. It changes when the official lineup is out.

Lech Poznan00Sunderland0'
Glow = player market value€0€120m+

Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.

  • Lech Poznan 4-2-3-1: Mateusz Lis, Michał Gurgul, Jakub Skrzypczak, Yegbe, Joel Pereira, Milan Kozubal, Radosław Murawski, Patrik Wålemark, Pablo Rodríguez, Luis Palma, Mikael Ishak
  • Sunderland 4-3-3: Robin Roefs, Dayann Méthalie, Kevin Danso, Luke O'Nien, Trai Hume, Jules Ahoka, Habib Diarra, Chris Rigg, Malick Fofana, Timur Tutierov, Nilson Angulo

Form

Sunderland
Last 5, most recent first
LLLLD
Goals per game, for / against0.8 / 2.4
Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-0-2
Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-1-3

Absences

Lech Poznan3 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Alex DouglasCentre-backInjuredInjury to the ankle10/3/2026
Ali GholizadehRight wingerInjuredCruciate ligament tear3/5/2026
Allahyar SayyadmaneshRight wingerInjuredGroin injury3/10/2026
Sunderland1 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-forwardInjuredHamstring injury25/9/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Lech Poznan
3 out

According to Transfermarkt, 3 players are out.

Sunderland
0 W1 D4 L0.8 for2.4 against1 out

Sunderland have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.4 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 1 player is out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Robin Roefs, Goalkeeper Sunderland
22Robin Roefs
Sunderland
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
23 (17/1/2003)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
193 cm
Market value
€28.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
10Saves
2Clean sheets
13Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

1.43 saves per game, 1.86 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 29% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

6Dayann Methalie
Sunderland
Position
Defender
Age
20
Nationality
France
Height
185 cm

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
2Goals
1Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
2Fouls committed
1Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.29 goals per game, 0.14 assists per game, 0.14 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Kevin Danso, Defender Sunderland
4Kevin Danso
Sunderland
Position
Defender
Age
28 (19/9/1998)
Nationality
Austria
Height
191 cm
Market value
€20.0m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
9Shots
4Shots on target
0.3xG
0.1xA
0.3npxG (no penalties)
5Key passes
17Fouls committed
6Fouls won
3Offsides
4Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.08 goals per game, 0.75 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Luke O'Nien, Midfielder Sunderland
13Luke O'Nien
Sunderland
Position
Midfielder
Age
31 (21/11/1994)
Nationality
England
Height
175 cm
Market value
€700k
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

3Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
5Fouls committed
1Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Trai Hume, Defender Sunderland
32Trai Hume
Sunderland
Position
Defender
Age
24 (18/3/2002)
Nationality
Northern Ireland
Height
180 cm
Market value
€22.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
11Shots
3Shots on target
0.2xG
0.8xA
0.2npxG (no penalties)
4Key passes
9Fouls committed
11Fouls won
3Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.09 assists per game, 1.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Jules Ahoka, Midfielder Sunderland
29Jules Ahoka
Sunderland
Position
Midfielder
Age
20 (8/5/2006)
Nationality
DR Congo
Market value
€300k
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
Royal Antwerp FC, 24/8/2026, €10.00m

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
2Goals
1Assists
17Shots
3Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
14Fouls committed
19Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.13 assists per game, 2.13 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

19Habib Diarra
Sunderland
Position
Midfielder
Age
22
Nationality
Senegal
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
2Goals
2Assists
10Shots
3Shots on target
0.0xG
0.5xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
1Key passes
10Fouls committed
11Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 goals per game, 0.25 assists per game, 1.25 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Chris Rigg, Midfielder Sunderland
11Chris Rigg
Sunderland
Position
Midfielder
Age
19 (18/6/2007)
Nationality
England
Height
178 cm
Market value
€25.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
3Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Malick Fofana, Forward Sunderland
39Malick Fofana
Sunderland
Position
Forward
Age
21 (31/3/2005)
Nationality
Belgium, Guinea
Height
170 cm
Market value
€30.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031
Joined from
Olympique Lyon, 1/9/2026, €30.00m

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
11Shots
6Shots on target
0.5xG
0.0xA
0.5npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
11Fouls committed
4Fouls won
2Offsides
0Yellow cards
1Red cards

How the season reads

0.14 goals per game, 1.57 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

57Tymur Tutierov
Sunderland
Position
Forward
Age
21
Nationality
Ukraine
Height
183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

3Appearances
1Goals
1Assists
9Shots
4Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
4Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 goals per game, 0.33 assists per game, 3.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Nilson Angulo, Forward Sunderland
10Nilson Angulo
Sunderland
Position
Forward
Age
23 (19/6/2003)
Nationality
Ecuador
Height
183 cm
Market value
€17.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
3Goals
1Assists
9Shots
7Shots on target
0.7xG
1.0xA
0.7npxG (no penalties)
2Key passes
12Fouls committed
14Fouls won
3Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.30 goals per game, 0.10 assists per game, 0.90 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

9Brian Brobbey
Sunderland
Position
Forward
Age
24
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances
6Goals
0Assists
18Shots
8Shots on target
2.9xG
0.6xA
2.9npxG (no penalties)
5Key passes
17Fouls committed
20Fouls won
9Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.55 goals per game, 1.64 shots per game, scores 3.1 more goals than the xG suggests. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Sunderland

25/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeLeeds United
31/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayCoventry City
8/11/2026 · ENG.1HomeChelsea
Sunderland

More matches on this day

Our model gives Lech Poznan win 19%, draw 23%, Sunderland win 58%. over 2.5 goals 53%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 0.95 - 1.85. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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