Pafos vs Riga FC prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Pafos vs Riga FC, 2026-10-22, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Pafos

VS16:45 GMT

Riga FC

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.88

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

55%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

53%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.42

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK68%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 68%.

Odds: 1.42

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Pafos 1 - 0 Riga FC

PROBABILITY

10.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Pafos

60%1.681.65

Draw

22%4.464.10

Riga FC

18%5.555.25

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Pafos or draw

82%1.22—

Riga FC or draw

40%2.47—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.29—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

79%1.271.20

Under 1.5 goals

22%4.654.00

Over 2.5 goals

55%1.821.75

Under 2.5 goals

45%2.222.10

Over 3.5 goals

33%3.072.65

Under 3.5 goals

67%1.481.42

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

53%1.89—

Not both score (NG)

47%2.12—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER49%

add_circlePafos

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.88

BUILDER39%

add_circlePafos

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.43

BUILDER37%

add_circlePafos

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.34

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Pafos

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-10

LDDWL

LAAtalanta1-3

WHDinamo City4-2

DADinamo City1-1

DHRB Salzburg3-3

LARB Salzburg0-1

Riga FC

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · goals 6-4

DDWWD

DHKairat Almaty1-1

WAAris Limassol2-1

WHKI Klaksvik2-1

DAKI Klaksvik0-0

DAGyöri ETO FC1-1

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

60%Market 59%

Draw (X)

22%Market 23%

Away win (2)

18%Market 18%

Over 2.5 goals

55%Market 55%

Both teams to score

53%Market: —

Expected goals

1.9 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Pafos 1 - 0 Riga FC (10.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 010.8%
2. 2 - 010.4%
3. 1 - 110.3%
4. 2 - 19.9%
5. 3 - 06.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Riga FC

Goals scored by Pafos

01234505.65.42.60.80.20.0110.810.35.01.60.40.1210.49.94.81.50.40.136.66.43.01.00.20.043.23.11.50.50.10.051.21.20.60.20.00.0

Our model gives Pafos win 60%, draw 22%, Riga FC win 18%. over 2.5 goals 55%. both teams to score 53%. expected goals 1.92 - 0.96. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.