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Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Nijmegen, 2026-10-22, UEFA Europa League, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA EUROPA LEAGUE•16:45 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
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Dinamo ZagrebHOME

Dinamo Zagreb

VS16:45 GMT

NEC Nijmegen

NEC NijmegenAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.17

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

61%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Dinamo Zagreb 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen

PROBABILITY

9.9%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Dinamo Zagreb
59%1.711.67
Draw
22%4.634.30
NEC Nijmegen
20%5.044.70
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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Dinamo Zagreb or draw
80%1.25—
NEC Nijmegen or draw
41%2.41—
Either team wins (no draw)
78%1.28—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
83%1.211.17
Under 1.5 goals
17%5.804.20
Over 2.5 goals
61%1.631.55
Under 2.5 goals
39%2.592.35
Over 3.5 goals
39%2.562.35
Under 3.5 goals
61%1.641.60
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
59%1.70—
Not both score (NG)
41%2.44—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER50%
add_circleDinamo Zagreb
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 1.88
BUILDER41%
add_circleDinamo Zagreb
add_circleOver 2.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.24
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 6-6

WDLDW
WHAnderlecht1-0
DAHapoel Be'er0-0
LAViking FK1-3
DHViking FK2-2
WAKauno Zalgiris2-1
NEC Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5: 0W 4D 1L · goals 5-10

LDDDD
DHFortuna Sittard2-2
DHLevski Sofia1-1
DAAjax Amsterdam1-1
DHGo Ahead Eagles1-1
LAJuventus0-5

Head-to-head

2008-10-23
Dinamo Zagreb3 - 2NEC Nijmegen
compare_arrows

Team comparison

Dinamo Zagreb
VS
—
Power Ranking
#136 ▼9Power Index 47.9
—
Squad value
€57m8th in the league
—
Head coach
Dick Schreudersince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.62 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
59%Market 59%
Draw (X)
22%Market 22%
Away win (2)
20%Market 20%
Over 2.5 goals
61%Market 61%
Both teams to score
59%Market: —
Expected goals
2.1 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Dinamo Zagreb 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen (9.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 2 - 19.9%
  2. 1 - 19.6%
  3. 2 - 08.8%
  4. 1 - 08.6%
  5. 3 - 16.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by NEC Nijmegen
Goals scored by Dinamo Zagreb
01234504.24.72.61.00.30.118.69.65.42.00.60.128.89.95.52.10.60.136.06.83.81.40.40.143.13.51.90.70.20.051.31.40.80.30.10.0

Lineups

ProbableUpdated 21/10 19:15 · AI Goal Lab estimate

Predicted from the latest reports. It changes when the official lineup is out.

Dinamo Zagreb00NEC Nijmegen0'
Glow = player market value€0€120m+

Season stats, all competitions. Hover or tap a player.

  • Dinamo Zagreb 4-3-3: Ivan Filipović, Bruno Goda, Scott McKenna, Sergi Domínguez, Moris Valinčić, Josip Mišić, Miha Zajc, Mateo Lisica, Mislav Oršić, Dion Drena Beljo, Gabriel Vidović
  • NEC Nijmegen 4-3-3: Gonzalo Crettaz, Kevin Kers, Deveron Fonville, Ahmetcan Kaplan, Tobias Storm, Darko Nejašmić, Jamiro Monteiro, Clement Bischoff, Dennis Geiger, Bryan Linssen, Noë Lebreton

Form

NEC Nijmegen
Last 5, most recent first
DDDLD
Goals per game, for / against1.2 / 1.8
Home, W-D-L (last 10)0-3-2
Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-1

Absences

NEC Nijmegen4 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-backInjuredAnkle surgery7/10/2026
Attacking midfieldInjuredCalf injury16/10/2026
Right wingerInjuredGroin injury13/9/2026
Centre-backInjuredunknown injury17/9/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Dinamo Zagreb
0 out

No absences are recorded.

NEC Nijmegen
0 W4 D1 L1.2 for1.8 against4 out

NEC Nijmegen have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 4 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

1Gonzalo Crettaz
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Goalkeeper
Age
26
Nationality
Argentina
Height
183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
13Saves
0Clean sheets
10Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

1.86 saves per game, 1.43 goals conceded per game, clean sheet in 0% of games. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Kevin Kers, Forward NEC Nijmegen
34Kevin Kers
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Forward
Age
20 (4/1/2006)
Nationality
Netherlands, Cote d'Ivoire
Market value
€250k
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
24Deveron Fonville
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Defender
Age
23
Nationality
Curaçao
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
2Shots
0Shots on target
7Fouls committed
6Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.29 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Ahmetcan Kaplan, Defender NEC Nijmegen
22Ahmetcan Kaplan
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Defender
Age
23 (16/1/2003)
Nationality
Türkiye
Height
188 cm
Market value
€6.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Ajax Amsterdam, 20/8/2026, €2.50m

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Tobias Storm, Defender NEC Nijmegen
21Tobias Storm
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Defender
Age
22 (4/7/2004)
Nationality
Denmark, Japan
Height
175 cm
Market value
€3.0m
Contract until
30/6/2030
Joined from
Lyngby Boldklub, 1/7/2026, €1.65m

Season stats, all competitions

15Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
14Fouls committed
8Fouls won
0Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Darko Nejasmic, Midfielder NEC Nijmegen
6Darko Nejasmic
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Midfielder
Age
27 (25/1/1999)
Nationality
Croatia
Market value
€5.0m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
7Shots
3Shots on target
2Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.17 goals per game, 1.17 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Jamiro Monteiro, Midfielder NEC Nijmegen
35Jamiro Monteiro
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Midfielder
Age
32 (23/11/1993)
Nationality
Cape Verde, Netherlands
Height
175 cm
Market value
€650k
Contract until
30/6/2028
Joined from
PEC Zwolle, 13/7/2026, free transfer

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
9Shots
3Shots on target
17Fouls committed
13Fouls won
0Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.90 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

99Clement Bischoff
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Forward
Age
20
Nationality
Denmark
Height
180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances
2Goals
4Assists
6Shots
0Shots on target
4Fouls committed
13Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.17 goals per game, 0.33 assists per game, 0.50 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Dennis Geiger, Midfielder NEC Nijmegen
18Dennis Geiger
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Midfielder
Age
28 (10/6/1998)
Nationality
Germany
Height
173 cm
Market value
€1.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028
Joined from
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, 28/8/2026, free transfer

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
2Shots
0Shots on target
5Fouls committed
2Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Bryan Linssen, Forward NEC Nijmegen
30Bryan Linssen
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Forward
Age
36 (8/10/1990)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
170 cm
Market value
€300k
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

5Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
11Shots
2Shots on target
13Fouls committed
3Fouls won
3Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.20 goals per game, 2.20 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Noé Lebreton, Midfielder NEC Nijmegen
20Noé Lebreton
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Midfielder
Age
22 (22/4/2004)
Nationality
France, Senegal
Height
178 cm
Market value
€6.0m
Contract until
30/6/2029

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
3Goals
0Assists
6Shots
2Shots on target
8Fouls committed
12Fouls won
1Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.38 goals per game, 0.75 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Bram Nuytinck, Defender NEC Nijmegen
17Bram Nuytinck
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Defender
Age
36 (4/5/1990)
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
191 cm
Market value
€200k
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

3Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
3Fouls committed
3Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.33 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Dusan Tadic, Forward NEC Nijmegen
10Dusan Tadic
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Forward
Age
37 (20/11/1988)
Nationality
Serbia
Height
180 cm
Market value
€1.5m
Contract until
30/6/2028
Joined from
Al-Wahda FC, 27/7/2026, free transfer

Season stats, all competitions

11Appearances
0Goals
3Assists
6Shots
1Shots on target
4Fouls committed
9Fouls won
3Offsides
3Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.27 assists per game, 0.55 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

7Emre Mor
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Forward
Age
29
Nationality
Türkiye
Height
170 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
4Shots
0Shots on target
1Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
3Philippe Sandler
NEC Nijmegen
Position
Defender
Age
29
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
191 cm

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
4Fouls committed
3Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

Next matches of NEC Nijmegen

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Groningen
31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayHeerenveen
8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen

More matches on this day

Our model gives Dinamo Zagreb win 59%, draw 22%, NEC Nijmegen win 20%. over 2.5 goals 61%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 2.05 - 1.12. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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