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Braga vs KAA Gent prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Braga vs KAA Gent, 2026-10-22, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
BragaHOME

Braga

VS19:00 GMT

KAA Gent

KAA GentAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.46

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

45%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

45%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Braga 1 - 0 KAA Gent

PROBABILITY

14.3%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.9Exp. cards 3.9
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Braga
58%1.721.67
Draw
25%4.043.80
KAA Gent
17%5.865.25
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Braga or draw
83%1.21—
KAA Gent or draw
42%2.39—
Either team wins (no draw)
75%1.33—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
71%1.411.30
Under 1.5 goals
29%3.423.15
Over 2.5 goals
45%2.242.10
Under 2.5 goals
55%1.811.75
Over 3.5 goals
23%4.273.40
Under 3.5 goals
77%1.311.27
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
45%2.24—
Not both score (NG)
55%1.80—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER44%
add_circleBraga
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.02
BUILDER42%
add_circleBraga
add_circleUnder 3.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.12
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Braga

Braga

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 3-8

WDLLL
LHGil Vicente1-2
LAF.C. København0-3
LHSporting CP1-3
DASanta Clara0-0
WHEstoril1-0
KAA Gent

KAA Gent

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 9-2

WDWWW
WHAGF1-0
WAZulte-Waregem2-0
WHStandard Liege2-1
DARacing Genk1-1
WACercle Brugge KSV3-0

Head-to-head

2016-11-24
KAA Gent2 - 2Braga
2016-09-15
Braga1 - 1KAA Gent
compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
#51 ▼3Power Index 62.7
Power Ranking
#130 ▲9Power Index 48.3
€159m4th in the league
Squad value
€57m6th in the league
Carlos Vicenssince 1 Jul 2025 · 75 games · 1.89 pts/game
Head coach
Rik De Milsince 10 Dec 2025 · 41 games · 1.66 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
58%Market 58%
Draw (X)
25%Market 24%
Away win (2)
17%Market 17%
Over 2.5 goals
45%Market 44%
Both teams to score
45%Market: —
Expected goals
1.7 - 0.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Braga 1 - 0 KAA Gent (14.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 014.3%
  2. 2 - 012.0%
  3. 1 - 111.2%
  4. 2 - 19.4%
  5. 0 - 08.5%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by KAA Gent
Goals scored by Braga
01234508.56.72.60.70.10.0114.311.24.41.20.20.0212.09.43.71.00.20.036.75.32.10.50.10.042.82.20.90.20.00.050.90.70.30.10.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Braga
Last 5, most recent first
LLDWL
Goals per game, for / against0.8 / 1.4
Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-0-2
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-2-1
KAA Gent
Last 5, most recent first
WWDWW
Goals per game, for / against1.8 / 0.4
Home, W-D-L (last 10)4-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)3-1-0

Absences

Braga2 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-backInjuredunknown injury17/4/2026
Centre-backInjuredAchilles tendon rupture9/4/2026
KAA Gent3 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Centre-backInjuredsurgery1/7/2026
Josué VergaraCentre-forwardInjuredHip injury6/10/2026
Centre-backInjuredCruciate ligament tear18/9/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Braga
1 W1 D3 L0.8 for1.4 against2 out

Braga have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 2 players are out.

KAA Gent
4 W1 D0 L1.8 for0.4 against3 out

KAA Gent have 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.4 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 3 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

26Bright Arrey-Mbi
Braga
Position
Defender
Age
23
Nationality
Germany
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
1Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
4Sikou Niakate
Braga
Position
Defender
Age
27
Nationality
Mali
Height
185 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Hannes Vernemmen
KAA Gent
Position
Defender
Age
21
Nationality
Belgium

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

5Mouhamed Ngom
KAA Gent
Position
Defender
Age
26
Nationality
Senegal
Height
180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

7Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
7Shots
0Shots on target
13Fouls committed
4Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

1.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Next matches of Braga

25/10/2026 · POR.1AwayC.D. Nacional
1/11/2026 · POR.1HomeFC Famalicao
8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayRio Ave

Next matches of KAA Gent

25/10/2026 · BEL.1HomeAnderlecht
1/11/2026 · BEL.1AwayLommel SK
8/11/2026 · BEL.1HomeKV Kortrijk
BragaKAA Gent

More matches on this day

Our model gives Braga win 58%, draw 25%, KAA Gent win 17%. over 2.5 goals 45%. both teams to score 45%. expected goals 1.67 - 0.79. largest gap to the market: draw (0 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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