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AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction, tips and odds

Next match: AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg, 2026-10-22, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
AS MonacoHOME

AS Monaco

VS19:00 GMT

SC Freiburg

SC FreiburgAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.85

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

54%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

68%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips
query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
PRIMARY PICK68%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 68%.

Odds: 1.45
scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AS Monaco 1 - 1 SC Freiburg

PROBABILITY

11.7%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.7Exp. cards 3.5
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
AS Monaco
43%2.352.30
Draw
26%3.913.60
SC Freiburg
32%3.133.05
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
AS Monaco or draw
68%1.47—
SC Freiburg or draw
57%1.74—
Either team wins (no draw)
74%1.34—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
78%1.281.19
Under 1.5 goals
22%4.554.10
Over 2.5 goals
54%1.851.73
Under 2.5 goals
46%2.182.10
Over 3.5 goals
32%3.142.65
Under 3.5 goals
68%1.471.45
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
58%1.73—
Not both score (NG)
42%2.36—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
60%1.671.39
Under 7.5 corners
40%2.492.77
Over 8.5 corners
48%2.071.73
Under 8.5 corners
52%1.931.99
Over 9.5 corners
37%2.672.23
Under 9.5 corners
63%1.601.58
Over 10.5 corners
28%3.583.05
Under 10.5 corners
72%1.391.33
Over 11.5 corners
20%4.99—
Under 11.5 corners
80%1.25—
Over 12.5 corners
14%7.19—
Under 12.5 corners
86%1.16—
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
86%1.17—
Under 1.5 cards
14%6.97—
Over 2.5 cards
68%1.47—
Under 2.5 cards
32%3.12—
Over 3.5 cards
47%2.12—
Under 3.5 cards
53%1.89—
Over 4.5 cards
29%3.48—
Under 4.5 cards
71%1.40—
Over 5.5 cards
16%6.36—
Under 5.5 cards
84%1.19—
Over 6.5 cards
8%12.38—
Under 6.5 cards
92%1.09—
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AS Monaco

AS Monaco

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 8-5

WWDWL
LALorient0-1
WACSKA Sofia2-1
DHToulouse2-2
WHPisa2-0
WHLens2-1
SC Freiburg

SC Freiburg

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 12-9

DWWWL
LABayer Leverkusen1-2
WHJablonec3-2
WHSchalke 042-1
WHFC Luzern4-2
DAEintracht Frankfurt2-2

Head-to-head

No recent meetings in the feed.

compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
#42 ▼3Power Index 65.7
Power Ranking
#49 ▲1Power Index 63.0
€378m2nd in the league
Squad value
€244m8th in the league
Filipe Luíssince 6 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 2.30 pts/game
Head coach
Julian Schustersince 1 Jul 2024 · 101 games · 1.72 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
43%Market 42%
Draw (X)
26%Market 26%
Away win (2)
32%Market 31%
Over 2.5 goals
54%Market 54%
Both teams to score
58%Market: —
Expected goals
1.5 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AS Monaco 1 - 1 SC Freiburg (11.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 111.7%
  2. 2 - 19.0%
  3. 1 - 08.9%
  4. 1 - 27.6%
  5. 0 - 17.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by SC Freiburg
Goals scored by AS Monaco
01234505.87.64.92.20.70.218.911.77.63.31.10.326.99.05.92.60.80.233.54.63.01.30.40.141.41.81.20.50.20.050.40.50.40.20.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

AS Monaco
Last 5, most recent first
LDWDW
Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 1.2
Home, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)2-1-1
SC Freiburg
Last 5, most recent first
LWDWW
Goals per game, for / against2.2 / 1.0
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-0
Away, W-D-L (last 10)1-1-1

Absences

SC Freiburg3 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Left-backInjuredDental surgery2/10/2026
Centre-backInjuredmuscular problems9/10/2026
Left wingerOutNo eligibility4/9/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

AS Monaco
2 W2 D1 L1.4 for1.2 against0 out

AS Monaco have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.2 per game. No absences are recorded.

SC Freiburg
3 W1 D1 L2.2 for1.0 against3 out

SC Freiburg have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 games, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 3 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

27Berkay Yilmaz
SC Freiburg
Position
Defender
Age
21
Nationality
Türkiye
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
3Fouls committed
4Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.17 assists per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Ifechukwu Ogbus, Defender SC Freiburg
43Ifechukwu Ogbus
SC Freiburg
Position
Defender
Age
20 (17/12/2005)
Nationality
Switzerland, Nigeria
Height
185 cm
Market value
€12.0m
Contract until
1/7/2024

Season stats, all competitions

10Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
2Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.10 assists per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

23Florent Muslija
SC Freiburg
Position
Midfielder
Age
28
Nationality
Kosovo
Height
173 cm

Season stats, all competitions

No stats yet.

Next matches of AS Monaco

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLille
1/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis FC
8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLe Mans

Next matches of SC Freiburg

25/10/2026 · GER.1HomeBayern Munich
31/10/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Augsburg
8/11/2026 · GER.1Home1. FC Union Berlin
AS MonacoSC Freiburg

More matches on this day

Our model gives AS Monaco win 43%, draw 26%, SC Freiburg win 32%. over 2.5 goals 54%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 1.54 - 1.31. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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