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Ajax Amsterdam vs Atalanta prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Ajax Amsterdam vs Atalanta, 2026-10-22, UEFA Conference League, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

MATCH ANALYSIS/UEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE/2026-10-22
stadiumUEFA CONFERENCE LEAGUE•19:00 GMT
scheduleKICKOFF IN:
--:--:--
Ajax AmsterdamHOME

Ajax Amsterdam

VS19:00 GMT

Atalanta

AtalantaAWAY
monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.08

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

61%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training
ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE
NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Ajax Amsterdam 1 - 1 Atalanta

PROBABILITY

10.8%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.4Exp. cards 2.9
swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Ajax Amsterdam
45%2.212.15
Draw
24%4.133.75
Atalanta
31%3.273.15
shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Ajax Amsterdam or draw
69%1.44—
Atalanta or draw
55%1.83—
Either team wins (no draw)
76%1.32—
sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 goals
82%1.231.15
Under 1.5 goals
18%5.424.40
Over 2.5 goals
59%1.681.63
Under 2.5 goals
41%2.462.30
Over 3.5 goals
37%2.702.40
Under 3.5 goals
63%1.591.55
sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Both score (GG)
61%1.63—
Not both score (NG)
39%2.59—
flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 7.5 corners
68%1.471.36
Under 7.5 corners
32%3.112.90
Over 8.5 corners
57%1.761.67
Under 8.5 corners
43%2.322.07
Over 9.5 corners
46%2.182.15
Under 9.5 corners
54%1.851.62
Over 10.5 corners
36%2.802.90
Under 10.5 corners
64%1.551.36
Over 11.5 corners
27%3.74—
Under 11.5 corners
73%1.37—
Over 12.5 corners
19%5.16—
Under 12.5 corners
81%1.24—
style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS
Over 1.5 cards
77%1.30—
Under 1.5 cards
23%4.36—
Over 2.5 cards
54%1.84—
Under 2.5 cards
46%2.19—
Over 3.5 cards
33%3.06—
Under 3.5 cards
67%1.49—
Over 4.5 cards
17%5.82—
Under 4.5 cards
83%1.21—
Over 5.5 cards
8%12.01—
Under 5.5 cards
92%1.09—
Over 6.5 cards
7%14.29—
Under 6.5 cards
93%1.08—
layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER38%
add_circleAjax Amsterdam
add_circleOver 1.5 goals
Indicative odds: 2.42
history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Ajax Amsterdam

Ajax Amsterdam

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 14-8

WDDLW
WAFC Groningen5-2
LAHajduk Split1-2
DHNEC Nijmegen1-1
DHExcelsior2-2
WHWillem II5-1
Atalanta

Atalanta

Last 5: 2W 0D 3L · goals 9-9

LLWWL
LAAC Milan2-3
WHPafos3-1
WHVenezia3-1
LAJuventus0-2
LHCagliari1-2

Head-to-head

2020-12-09
Ajax Amsterdam0 - 1Atalanta
2020-10-27
Atalanta2 - 2Ajax Amsterdam
compare_arrows

Team comparison

VS
#79 ▼2Power Index 56.7
Power Ranking
#32 ▲2Power Index 68.2
€228m3rd in the league
Squad value
€449m6th in the league
Míchel Sánchezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.13 pts/game
Head coach
Maurizio Sarrisince 15 Jun 2026 · 10 games · 1.60 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)
45%Market 45%
Draw (X)
24%Market 25%
Away win (2)
31%Market 30%
Over 2.5 goals
59%Market 60%
Both teams to score
61%Market: —
Expected goals
1.7 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Ajax Amsterdam 1 - 1 Atalanta (10.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

  1. 1 - 110.8%
  2. 2 - 19.2%
  3. 1 - 07.9%
  4. 1 - 27.4%
  5. 2 - 06.7%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Atalanta
Goals scored by Ajax Amsterdam
01234504.66.34.32.00.70.217.910.87.43.41.20.326.79.26.32.91.00.333.85.23.61.60.60.241.62.21.50.70.20.150.60.80.50.20.10.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Ajax Amsterdam
Last 5, most recent first
WDDWW
Goals per game, for / against3.6 / 1.4
Home, W-D-L (last 10)1-3-1
Away, W-D-L (last 10)4-0-0
Atalanta
Last 5, most recent first
LWLLL
Goals per game, for / against1.4 / 2.0
Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-1
Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-0-3

Absences

Ajax Amsterdam7 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Right-backInjuredunknown injury9/10/2026
Left-backInjuredThigh problems20/9/2026
Centre-backInjuredBack injury14/8/2026
Centre-forwardInjuredCruciate ligament tear22/9/2026
Left wingerInjuredunknown injury16/10/2026
Left wingerInjuredunknown injury7/10/2026
Right wingerInjuredunknown injury18/9/2026
Atalanta6 out
PlayerPositionStatusReasonSince
Second strikerInjuredHamstring muscle injury16/10/2026
Centre-backInjuredMuscle injury13/10/2026
Centre-backInjuredThigh problems30/6/2026
Centre-backInjuredHamstring injury19/9/2026
Centre-backInjuredHamstring strain19/10/2026
GoalkeeperInjuredBroken hand6/10/2026

Source: Transfermarkt, 21/10/2026. Doubtful players are not listed.

Form and team news

Ajax Amsterdam
3 W2 D0 L3.6 for1.4 against7 out

Ajax Amsterdam have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 3.6 and conceding 1.4 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 7 players are out.

Atalanta
1 W0 D4 L1.4 for2.0 against6 out

Atalanta have 1 win, 0 draws and 4 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.0 per game. According to Transfermarkt, 6 players are out.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Anton Gaaei, Defender Ajax Amsterdam
3Anton Gaaei
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Defender
Age
23 (19/11/2002)
Nationality
Denmark
Height
183 cm
Market value
€5.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
9Shots
2Shots on target
8Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

2.25 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

12Caio Henrique
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Defender
Age
29
Nationality
Brazil
Height
178 cm

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
2Shots
0Shots on target
3Fouls committed
4Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.17 assists per game, 0.33 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

17Daley Blind
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Defender
Age
36
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
180 cm

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
0Fouls committed
0Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
9Kasper Dolberg
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Forward
Age
29
Nationality
Denmark
Height
188 cm

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
2Goals
3Assists
16Shots
3Shots on target
4Fouls committed
2Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.50 goals per game, 0.75 assists per game, 4.00 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Oliver Edvardsen, Forward Ajax Amsterdam
20Oliver Edvardsen
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Forward
Age
27 (19/3/1999)
Nationality
Norway
Height
175 cm
Market value
€3.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

1Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
1Shots
0Shots on target
2Fouls committed
1Fouls won
1Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
Simon Adingra, Forward Ajax Amsterdam
7Simon Adingra
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Forward
Age
24 (1/1/2002)
Nationality
Cote d'Ivoire
Height
175 cm
Market value
€22.0m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

2Appearances
1Goals
0Assists
9Shots
3Shots on target
0Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards
23Steven Berghuis
Ajax Amsterdam
Position
Forward
Age
34
Nationality
Netherlands
Height
183 cm

Season stats, all competitions

6Appearances
1Goals
2Assists
16Shots
6Shots on target
5Fouls committed
5Fouls won
2Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.17 goals per game, 0.33 assists per game, 2.67 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

18Giacomo Raspadori
Atalanta
Position
Forward
Age
26
Nationality
Italy
Height
173 cm

Season stats, all competitions

4Appearances
2Goals
1Assists
13Shots
3Shots on target
0.4xG
0.1xA
0.4npxG (no penalties)
3Key passes
4Fouls committed
5Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.50 goals per game, 0.25 assists per game, 3.25 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Giorgio Scalvini, Defender Atalanta
42Giorgio Scalvini
Atalanta
Position
Defender
Age
22 (11/12/2003)
Nationality
Italy
Height
193 cm
Market value
€38.0m
Contract until
30/6/2031

Season stats, all competitions

8Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
10Fouls committed
2Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.38 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Isak Hien, Defender Atalanta
4Isak Hien
Atalanta
Position
Defender
Age
27 (13/1/1999)
Nationality
Sweden, Ghana
Height
191 cm
Market value
€22.0m
Contract until
30/6/2028

Season stats, all competitions

5Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
0Shots
0Shots on target
4Fouls committed
3Fouls won
0Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards
3Odilon Kossounou
Atalanta
Position
Defender
Age
25
Nationality
Ivory Coast
Height
191 cm

Season stats, all competitions

12Appearances
0Goals
0Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
2Fouls committed
3Fouls won
0Offsides
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.25 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Sead Kolasinac, Defender Atalanta
23Sead Kolasinac
Atalanta
Position
Defender
Age
33 (20/6/1993)
Nationality
Bosnia-Herzegovina, Germany
Height
183 cm
Market value
€4.0m
Contract until
30/6/2027

Season stats, all competitions

13Appearances
0Goals
1Assists
3Shots
0Shots on target
0.0xG
0.0xA
0.0npxG (no penalties)
0Key passes
15Fouls committed
9Fouls won
1Offsides
1Yellow cards
0Red cards

How the season reads

0.08 assists per game, 0.23 shots per game. Estimates from season totals, not a prediction.

Thomas Pompei, Goalkeeper Atalanta
22Thomas Pompei
Atalanta
Position
Goalkeeper
Nationality
Italy
Market value
€250k
Contract until
1/9/2026
Joined from
Cosenza Calcio, 1/9/2026, ?

Season stats, all competitions

0Appearances
0Saves
0Clean sheets
0Goals conceded
0Yellow cards
0Red cards

Next matches of Ajax Amsterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwaySparta Rotterdam
31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeAZ Alkmaar
8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Twente

Next matches of Atalanta

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeFrosinone
29/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayFiorentina
2/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeParma
Ajax AmsterdamAtalanta

More matches on this day

Our model gives Ajax Amsterdam win 45%, draw 24%, Atalanta win 31%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 61%. expected goals 1.71 - 1.37. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.

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