Alavés vs Atlético Madrid prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Alavés vs Atlético Madrid, 2026-10-10, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 17:15 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•14:15 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Alavés

VS14:15 GMT

Atlético Madrid

AWAY

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PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.70

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MODEL OVER 2.5

51%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

52%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AlavésX2 Atlético Madrid

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Alavés (1)	21.3%	21.8%	4.59	trending_up+0.5 pp
Draw (X)	25.5%	25.9%	3.86	trending_flat+0.4 pp
Atlético Madrid (2)	53.2%	52.3%	1.91	trending_down-0.9 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Alavés 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid

PROBABILITY

11.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Alavés

23%4.374.50

Draw

25%4.003.75

Atlético Madrid

52%1.921.80

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Alavés or draw

48%2.09—

Atlético Madrid or draw

77%1.30—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

75%1.331.25

Under 1.5 goals

25%4.083.55

Over 2.5 goals

51%1.981.85

Under 2.5 goals

49%2.031.95

Over 3.5 goals

29%3.502.85

Under 3.5 goals

71%1.401.37

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

52%1.91—

Not both score (NG)

48%2.10—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER41%

add_circleAtlético Madrid

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.15

BUILDER35%

add_circleAtlético Madrid

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.47

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Alavés

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-5

WWLLD

DAAthletic Club0-0

LHValencia0-1

LARacing Santander1-2

WHOsasuna5-2

WHVillarreal1-0

Atlético Madrid

Last 5: 3W 0D 2L · goals 10-6

LLWWW

WHReal Madrid2-1

WHOsasuna4-0

WAReal Sociedad3-0

LALiverpool1-2

LAAthletic Club0-3

Head-to-head

2026-01-18

Atlético Madrid1 - 0Alavés

2025-08-30

Alavés1 - 1Atlético Madrid

2025-05-03

Alavés0 - 0Atlético Madrid

2024-11-23

Atlético Madrid2 - 1Alavés

2024-04-21

Alavés2 - 0Atlético Madrid

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Team comparison

Alavés

VS

Atlético Madrid

#68Power Index 58.8

Power Ranking

#13Power Index 78.3

€73m19th in the league

Squad value

€704m3rd in the league

Quique Sánchez Floressince 3 Mar 2026 · 20 games · 1.35 pts/game

Head coach

Diego Simeonesince 23 Dec 2011 · 811 games · 1.98 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

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What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

23%Market 21%

Draw (X)

25%Market 25%

Away win (2)

52%Market 54%

Over 2.5 goals

51%Market 51%

Both teams to score

52%Market: —

Expected goals

1.0 - 1.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Alavés 1 - 1 Atlético Madrid (11.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.6%
2. 0 - 111.2%
3. 1 - 29.7%
4. 0 - 29.4%
5. 1 - 06.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Atlético Madrid

Goals scored by Alavés

01234506.711.29.45.22.20.716.911.69.75.42.20.823.55.95.02.81.20.431.22.01.70.90.40.140.30.50.40.20.10.050.10.10.10.00.00.0

Next matches of Alavés

23/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeMálaga

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayBarcelona

6/11/2026 · ESP.1AwaySevilla

Next matches of Atlético Madrid

24/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeDeportivo

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayLevante

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeBarcelona

Our model gives Alavés win 23%, draw 25%, Atlético Madrid win 52%. over 2.5 goals 51%. both teams to score 52%. expected goals 1.03 - 1.67. largest gap to the market: Alavés win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.