AS Monaco vs Toulouse prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: AS Monaco vs Toulouse, 2026-10-10, French Ligue 1, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumFRENCH LIGUE 1•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

AS Monaco

VS18:45 GMT

Toulouse

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.08

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

59%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

63%

ODDS

1.55

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 AS MonacoX2 Toulouse

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
AS Monaco (1)	57.9%	58.4%	1.71	trending_up+0.5 pp
Draw (X)	22.7%	22.6%	4.42	trending_flat-0.1 pp
Toulouse (2)	19.4%	19%	5.27	trending_down-0.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK63%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 63%.

Odds: 1.55

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

AS Monaco 1 - 1 Toulouse

PROBABILITY

9.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.3Exp. cards 3.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AS Monaco

58%1.721.65

Draw

22%4.554.20

Toulouse

20%5.054.90

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

AS Monaco or draw

80%1.25—

Toulouse or draw

42%2.39—

Either team wins (no draw)

78%1.28—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.231.15

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.424.50

Over 2.5 goals

59%1.681.60

Under 2.5 goals

41%2.472.35

Over 3.5 goals

37%2.702.35

Under 3.5 goals

63%1.591.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

57%1.74—

Not both score (NG)

43%2.35—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

67%1.50—

Under 7.5 corners

33%2.99—

Over 8.5 corners

55%1.801.43

Under 8.5 corners

45%2.252.55

Over 9.5 corners

44%2.251.80

Under 9.5 corners

56%1.801.90

Over 10.5 corners

34%2.912.25

Under 10.5 corners

66%1.521.55

Over 11.5 corners

26%3.913.00

Under 11.5 corners

74%1.341.32

Over 12.5 corners

18%5.42—

Under 12.5 corners

82%1.23—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 1.5 cards

13%7.66—

Over 2.5 cards

70%1.421.45

Under 2.5 cards

30%3.372.45

Over 3.5 cards

50%2.002.10

Under 3.5 cards

50%2.001.65

Over 4.5 cards

31%3.20—

Under 4.5 cards

69%1.45—

Over 5.5 cards

18%5.70—

Under 5.5 cards

82%1.21—

Over 6.5 cards

9%10.91—

Under 6.5 cards

91%1.10—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER49%

add_circleAS Monaco

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.82

BUILDER40%

add_circleAS Monaco

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.27

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

AS Monaco

Last 5: 4W 1D 0L · goals 9-3

WWDWW

WHPisa2-0

WHLens2-1

DAStrasbourg1-1

WAParis Saint-Germain2-1

WHMarseille2-0

Toulouse

Last 5: 1W 2D 2L · goals 9-10

DLDWL

LHPau2-3

WHLe Havre AC3-2

DALorient2-2

LHLille0-1

DABrest2-2

Head-to-head

2026-04-25

Toulouse2 - 2AS Monaco

2025-10-25

AS Monaco1 - 0Toulouse

2025-03-07

Toulouse1 - 1AS Monaco

2024-12-07

AS Monaco2 - 0Toulouse

2024-02-18

AS Monaco1 - 2Toulouse

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Team comparison

AS Monaco

VS

Toulouse

#42 ▼3Power Index 65.7

Power Ranking

#80Power Index 56.7

€378m2nd in the league

Squad value

€124m11th in the league

Filipe Luíssince 6 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 2.30 pts/game

Head coach

Jens Berthel Askousince 1 Jul 2026 · 7 games · 1.29 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

58%Market 59%

Draw (X)

22%Market 22%

Away win (2)

20%Market 19%

Over 2.5 goals

59%Market 60%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

2.0 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: AS Monaco 1 - 1 Toulouse (9.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 19.9%
2. 2 - 19.9%
3. 1 - 09.2%
4. 2 - 09.2%
5. 3 - 16.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Toulouse

Goals scored by AS Monaco

01234504.65.02.71.00.30.119.29.95.41.90.50.129.29.95.41.90.50.136.16.63.61.30.40.143.03.31.80.60.20.051.21.30.70.30.10.0

Next matches of AS Monaco

25/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeLille

1/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayParis FC

8/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayLe Mans

Next matches of Toulouse

24/10/2026 · FRA.1HomeTroyes

1/11/2026 · FRA.1AwayMarseille

6/11/2026 · FRA.1HomeStrasbourg

Our model gives AS Monaco win 58%, draw 22%, Toulouse win 20%. over 2.5 goals 59%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 2.00 - 1.08. largest gap to the market: Toulouse win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.