Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Ajax Amsterdam vs NEC Nijmegen, 2026-10-10, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Ajax Amsterdam

VS19:00 GMT

NEC Nijmegen

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.96

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

76%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

65%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Both teams to score (GG)

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.45

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Ajax AmsterdamX2 NEC Nijmegen

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Ajax Amsterdam (1)	70.8%	71.8%	1.39	trending_up+1.0 pp
Draw (X)	15.7%	15.7%	6.37	trending_flat-0.0 pp
NEC Nijmegen (2)	13.5%	12.6%	7.97	trending_down-0.9 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

Both teams to score (GG)

Our probability: 65%.

Indicative odds: 1.45

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Ajax Amsterdam 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen

PROBABILITY

8.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.9Exp. cards 3.4

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Ajax Amsterdam

70%1.421.33

Draw

16%6.226.00

NEC Nijmegen

14%7.327.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Ajax Amsterdam or draw

86%1.16—

NEC Nijmegen or draw

30%3.36—

Either team wins (no draw)

84%1.19—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

91%1.101.05

Under 1.5 goals

9%10.817.20

Over 2.5 goals

76%1.321.23

Under 2.5 goals

24%4.103.75

Over 3.5 goals

56%1.791.60

Under 3.5 goals

44%2.272.30

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

65%1.53—

Not both score (NG)

35%2.89—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

72%1.39—

Under 7.5 corners

28%3.56—

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.631.43

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.592.55

Over 9.5 corners

51%1.981.80

Under 9.5 corners

49%2.031.90

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.492.30

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.671.53

Over 11.5 corners

31%3.243.05

Under 11.5 corners

69%1.451.30

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.37—

Under 12.5 corners

77%1.30—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

84%1.19—

Under 1.5 cards

16%6.19—

Over 2.5 cards

65%1.541.32

Under 2.5 cards

35%2.852.95

Over 3.5 cards

44%2.291.80

Under 3.5 cards

56%1.771.90

Over 4.5 cards

26%3.90—

Under 4.5 cards

74%1.35—

Over 5.5 cards

14%7.34—

Under 5.5 cards

86%1.16—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Ajax Amsterdam

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 17-7

WLWWD

DHExcelsior2-2

WHWillem II5-1

WAFortuna Sittard5-1

LHPSV Eindhoven1-3

WATelstar4-0

NEC Nijmegen

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 4-14

LDLLD

DHGo Ahead Eagles1-1

LAJuventus0-5

LASC Cambuur0-3

DHExcelsior2-2

LHFeyenoord Rotterdam1-3

Head-to-head

2026-02-21

Ajax Amsterdam1 - 1NEC Nijmegen

2025-12-20

NEC Nijmegen2 - 2Ajax Amsterdam

2025-05-11

Ajax Amsterdam0 - 3NEC Nijmegen

2024-12-01

NEC Nijmegen1 - 2Ajax Amsterdam

2024-02-18

Ajax Amsterdam2 - 2NEC Nijmegen

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Team comparison

Ajax Amsterdam

VS

NEC Nijmegen

#79 ▼2Power Index 56.7

Power Ranking

#136 ▼9Power Index 47.9

€228m3rd in the league

Squad value

€57m8th in the league

Míchel Sánchezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 16 games · 2.13 pts/game

Head coach

Dick Schreudersince 1 Jul 2025 · 55 games · 1.62 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

70%Market 73% -3

Draw (X)

16%Market 14%

Away win (2)

14%Market 12%

Over 2.5 goals

76%Market 79% -3

Both teams to score

65%Market: —

Expected goals

2.8 - 1.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Ajax Amsterdam 2 - 1 NEC Nijmegen (8.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 18.7%
2. 3 - 18.0%
3. 2 - 07.3%
4. 3 - 06.7%
5. 1 - 16.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by NEC Nijmegen

Goals scored by Ajax Amsterdam

01234501.92.31.30.50.20.015.36.33.71.50.40.127.38.75.22.10.60.136.78.04.81.90.60.144.75.63.31.30.40.152.63.11.80.70.20.1

Next matches of Ajax Amsterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwaySparta Rotterdam

31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeAZ Alkmaar

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Twente

Next matches of NEC Nijmegen

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Groningen

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayHeerenveen

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayFC Utrecht

Our model gives Ajax Amsterdam win 70%, draw 16%, NEC Nijmegen win 14%. over 2.5 goals 76%. both teams to score 65%. expected goals 2.77 - 1.19. largest gap to the market: Ajax Amsterdam win (3 points). Estimates, not guarantees.