Frosinone vs Napoli prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Napoli vs Frosinone, 2026-10-10, Italian Serie A, kickoff 21:45 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•18:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Napoli

VS18:45 GMT

Frosinone

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.30

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

64%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

58%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 κίτρινες cards

MODEL PROBABILITY

66%

ODDS

1.83

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 NapoliX2 Frosinone

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Napoli (1)	64%	62%	1.61	trending_down-2.1 pp
Draw (X)	20.5%	21.1%	4.73	trending_up+0.6 pp
Frosinone (2)	15.4%	16.9%	5.92	trending_up+1.5 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK66%

Over 2.5 κίτρινες cards

Our probability: 66%.

Odds: 1.83

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Napoli 2 - 1 Frosinone

PROBABILITY

9.8%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.0Exp. cards 3.4

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Napoli

65%1.551.44

Draw

20%5.124.50

Frosinone

16%6.296.00

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Napoli or draw

84%1.19—

Frosinone or draw

35%2.82—

Either team wins (no draw)

80%1.24—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

84%1.191.13

Under 1.5 goals

16%6.394.90

Over 2.5 goals

64%1.561.45

Under 2.5 goals

36%2.782.65

Over 3.5 goals

42%2.392.10

Under 3.5 goals

58%1.721.73

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

58%1.72—

Not both score (NG)

42%2.39—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

73%1.381.20

Under 7.5 corners

27%3.654.33

Over 8.5 corners

62%1.611.36

Under 8.5 corners

38%2.653.00

Over 9.5 corners

51%1.941.61

Under 9.5 corners

49%2.062.20

Over 10.5 corners

41%2.442.00

Under 10.5 corners

59%1.701.72

Over 11.5 corners

32%3.162.62

Under 11.5 corners

68%1.461.44

Over 12.5 corners

24%4.253.50

Under 12.5 corners

76%1.311.28

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

84%1.19—

Under 1.5 cards

16%6.36—

Over 2.5 cards

66%1.521.83

Under 2.5 cards

34%2.911.87

Over 3.5 cards

44%2.252.85

Under 3.5 cards

56%1.801.35

Over 4.5 cards

26%3.79—

Under 4.5 cards

74%1.36—

Over 5.5 cards

14%7.10—

Under 5.5 cards

86%1.16—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.03—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

layers

Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER47%

add_circleNapoli

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.84

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Napoli

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 5-7

LLLWD

DAFiorentina1-1

WHBologna1-0

LHArsenal0-1

LAInternazionale2-3

LHComo1-2

Frosinone

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 9-5

LWDWW

WHBenevento2-1

WHComo2-0

DAGenoa1-1

WHVenezia3-2

LASassuolo1-1

Head-to-head

2024-04-14

Napoli2 - 2Frosinone

2023-12-19

Napoli0 - 4Frosinone

2023-08-19

Frosinone1 - 3Napoli

2019-04-28

Frosinone0 - 2Napoli

2018-12-08

Napoli4 - 0Frosinone

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Napoli

VS

Frosinone

#43 ▼3Power Index 65.6

Power Ranking

#143 ▲4Power Index 46.8

€425m7th in the league

Squad value

€114m18th in the league

Massimiliano Allegrisince 3 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.11 pts/game

Head coach

Massimiliano Alvinisince 2 Jul 2025 · 49 games · 2.04 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

65%Market 67%

Draw (X)

20%Market 19%

Away win (2)

16%Market 14%

Over 2.5 goals

64%Market 66%

Both teams to score

58%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 1.0

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Napoli 2 - 1 Frosinone (9.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.8%
2. 2 - 09.4%
3. 1 - 18.7%
4. 1 - 08.4%
5. 3 - 17.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Frosinone

Goals scored by Napoli

01234503.73.82.00.70.20.018.48.74.51.60.40.129.49.85.11.80.50.137.17.43.81.30.30.144.04.22.20.70.20.051.81.91.00.30.10.0

Next matches of Napoli

24/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeAS Roma

28/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayMonza

1/11/2026 · ITA.1AwayJuventus

Next matches of Frosinone

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayAtalanta

29/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeLecce

1/11/2026 · ITA.1HomeTorino

Our model gives Napoli win 65%, draw 20%, Frosinone win 16%. over 2.5 goals 64%. both teams to score 58%. expected goals 2.26 - 1.04. largest gap to the market: Napoli win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.