Casa Pia vs Santa Clara prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Casa Pia vs Santa Clara, 2026-10-10, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 22:30 Athens time

stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•19:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Casa Pia

VS19:30 GMT

Santa Clara

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.35

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

42%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

47%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Casa Pia 0 - 1 Santa Clara

PROBABILITY

13.0%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.3Exp. cards 4.9

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Casa Pia

27%3.753.75

Draw

28%3.563.25

Santa Clara

45%2.212.05

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Casa Pia or draw

55%1.83—

Santa Clara or draw

73%1.36—

Either team wins (no draw)

72%1.39—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

68%1.46—

Under 1.5 goals

32%3.17—

Over 2.5 goals

42%2.392.20

Under 2.5 goals

58%1.721.62

Over 3.5 goals

21%4.73—

Under 3.5 goals

79%1.27—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

47%2.12—

Not both score (NG)

53%1.89—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

66%1.51—

Under 7.5 corners

34%2.97—

Over 8.5 corners

55%1.81—

Under 8.5 corners

45%2.23—

Over 9.5 corners

44%2.26—

Under 9.5 corners

56%1.79—

Over 10.5 corners

34%2.93—

Under 10.5 corners

66%1.52—

Over 11.5 corners

25%3.94—

Under 11.5 corners

75%1.34—

Over 12.5 corners

18%5.48—

Under 12.5 corners

82%1.22—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

86%1.16—

Under 2.5 cards

14%7.10—

Over 3.5 cards

72%1.39—

Under 3.5 cards

28%3.57—

Over 4.5 cards

55%1.83—

Under 4.5 cards

45%2.21—

Over 5.5 cards

38%2.65—

Under 5.5 cards

62%1.61—

Over 6.5 cards

24%4.22—

Under 6.5 cards

76%1.31—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Casa Pia

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 3-8

LLDLW

WAEstoril2-1

LHFC Porto1-4

DAVitória de Guimaraes0-0

LHMoreirense0-1

LAGil Vicente0-2

Santa Clara

Last 5: 3W 2D 0L · goals 8-2

WDWWD

DHBraga0-0

WAArouca2-1

WHRio Ave4-0

DAAlverca1-1

WHFC Famalicao1-0

Head-to-head

2026-04-18

Casa Pia0 - 0Santa Clara

2025-12-06

Santa Clara1 - 0Casa Pia

2025-02-01

Santa Clara2 - 1Casa Pia

2024-08-24

Casa Pia0 - 2Santa Clara

2023-01-29

Casa Pia2 - 1Santa Clara

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Casa Pia

VS

Santa Clara

#196 ▲2Power Index 38.7

Power Ranking

#117 ▼1Power Index 49.8

€28m12th in the league

Squad value

€22m15th in the league

Filipe Coelhosince 5 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 0.78 pts/game

Head coach

Petitsince 3 Feb 2026 · 23 games · 1.61 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

27%Market 25%

Draw (X)

28%Market 29%

Away win (2)

45%Market 47%

Over 2.5 goals

42%Market 42%

Both teams to score

47%Market: —

Expected goals

1.0 - 1.4

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Casa Pia 0 - 1 Santa Clara (13.0%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 113.0%
2. 1 - 112.8%
3. 0 - 09.5%
4. 1 - 09.4%
5. 0 - 28.9%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Santa Clara

Goals scored by Casa Pia

01234509.513.08.94.11.40.419.412.88.84.01.40.424.66.34.32.00.70.231.52.11.40.60.20.140.40.50.30.20.10.050.10.10.10.00.00.0

Next matches of Casa Pia

24/10/2026 · POR.1AwayEstrela

30/10/2026 · POR.1HomeSporting CP

7/11/2026 · POR.1AwayAlverca

Next matches of Santa Clara

26/10/2026 · POR.1HomeBenfica

1/11/2026 · POR.1AwayMaritimo

8/11/2026 · POR.1HomeGil Vicente

Our model gives Casa Pia win 27%, draw 28%, Santa Clara win 45%. over 2.5 goals 42%. both teams to score 47%. expected goals 0.98 - 1.37. largest gap to the market: Casa Pia win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.