AZ Alkmaar vs Feyenoord Rotterdam prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Feyenoord Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-10, Dutch Eredivisie, kickoff 19:45 Athens time

stadiumDUTCH EREDIVISIE•16:45 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Feyenoord Rotterdam

VS16:45 GMT

AZ Alkmaar

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.38

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

66%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

63%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Both teams to score (GG)

MODEL PROBABILITY

63%

ODDS

1.50

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Feyenoord RotterdamX2 AZ Alkmaar

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Feyenoord Rotterdam (1)	56.6%	55%	1.82	trending_down-1.6 pp
Draw (X)	22.5%	23.6%	4.24	trending_up+1.1 pp
AZ Alkmaar (2)	21%	21.4%	4.67	trending_up+0.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK63%

Both teams to score (GG)

Our probability: 63%.

Indicative odds: 1.50

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Feyenoord Rotterdam 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar

PROBABILITY

9.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.2Exp. cards 2.7

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Feyenoord Rotterdam

57%1.761.67

Draw

21%4.714.20

AZ Alkmaar

22%4.564.50

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Feyenoord Rotterdam or draw

78%1.28—

AZ Alkmaar or draw

43%2.32—

Either team wins (no draw)

79%1.27—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.171.10

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.845.50

Over 2.5 goals

66%1.521.40

Under 2.5 goals

34%2.912.70

Over 3.5 goals

44%2.291.98

Under 3.5 goals

56%1.781.78

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

63%1.58—

Not both score (NG)

37%2.73—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

75%1.34—

Under 7.5 corners

25%3.92—

Over 8.5 corners

64%1.551.28

Under 8.5 corners

36%2.813.20

Over 9.5 corners

54%1.861.50

Under 9.5 corners

46%2.172.35

Over 10.5 corners

43%2.301.92

Under 10.5 corners

57%1.771.78

Over 11.5 corners

34%2.962.45

Under 11.5 corners

66%1.511.47

Over 12.5 corners

25%3.93—

Under 12.5 corners

75%1.34—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

75%1.33—

Under 1.5 cards

25%4.02—

Over 2.5 cards

52%1.941.70

Under 2.5 cards

48%2.072.02

Over 3.5 cards

30%3.322.60

Under 3.5 cards

70%1.431.40

Over 4.5 cards

15%6.49—

Under 4.5 cards

85%1.18—

Over 5.5 cards

7%13.64—

Under 5.5 cards

93%1.08—

Over 6.5 cards

7%14.29—

Under 6.5 cards

93%1.08—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER42%

add_circleFeyenoord Rotterdam

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.06

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Feyenoord Rotterdam

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 18-8

DWLWW

WHFC Utrecht5-0

WAPEC Zwolle7-0

LABarcelona1-5

WANEC Nijmegen3-1

DHADO Den Haag2-2

AZ Alkmaar

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 10-6

WWDLW

WHTelstar1-0

LASunderland0-1

DHWillem II1-1

WAHeerenveen3-2

WHGo Ahead Eagles5-2

Head-to-head

2026-05-10

Feyenoord Rotterdam1 - 1AZ Alkmaar

2025-09-21

AZ Alkmaar3 - 3Feyenoord Rotterdam

2025-04-05

AZ Alkmaar0 - 1Feyenoord Rotterdam

2024-11-02

Feyenoord Rotterdam3 - 2AZ Alkmaar

2024-02-07

Feyenoord Rotterdam2 - 0AZ Alkmaar

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Team comparison

Feyenoord Rotterdam

VS

AZ Alkmaar

#48 ▼1Power Index 63.1

Power Ranking

#71 ▼2Power Index 58.0

€245m2nd in the league

Squad value

€161m4th in the league

Giovanni van Bronckhorstsince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 2.36 pts/game

Head coach

Lee-Roy Echteldsince 18 Jan 2026 · 37 games · 1.86 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

57%Market 58%

Draw (X)

21%Market 22%

Away win (2)

22%Market 20%

Over 2.5 goals

66%Market 68%

Both teams to score

63%Market: —

Expected goals

2.1 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Feyenoord Rotterdam 2 - 1 AZ Alkmaar (9.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.6%
2. 1 - 19.1%
3. 2 - 07.6%
4. 1 - 07.2%
5. 3 - 16.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AZ Alkmaar

Goals scored by Feyenoord Rotterdam

01234503.44.32.71.10.40.117.29.15.72.40.80.227.69.66.12.60.80.235.46.84.31.80.60.142.93.62.31.00.30.151.21.51.00.40.10.0

Next matches of Feyenoord Rotterdam

25/10/2026 · NED.1AwayPSV Eindhoven

31/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFortuna Sittard

8/11/2026 · NED.1AwayHeerenveen

Next matches of AZ Alkmaar

25/10/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Twente

31/10/2026 · NED.1AwayAjax Amsterdam

8/11/2026 · NED.1HomeFC Groningen

Our model gives Feyenoord Rotterdam win 57%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar win 22%. over 2.5 goals 66%. both teams to score 63%. expected goals 2.12 - 1.26. largest gap to the market: AZ Alkmaar win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.