Fiorentina vs Genoa prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Genoa vs Fiorentina, 2026-10-10, Italian Serie A, kickoff 16:00 Athens time

stadiumITALIAN SERIE A•13:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Genoa

VS13:00 GMT

Fiorentina

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.44

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

44%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

50%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Genoa 1 - 1 Fiorentina

PROBABILITY

12.9%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 8.4Exp. cards 3.9

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Genoa

31%3.273.15

Draw

28%3.583.15

Fiorentina

42%2.412.25

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Genoa or draw

59%1.71—

Fiorentina or draw

69%1.44—

Either team wins (no draw)

72%1.39—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

70%1.421.30

Under 1.5 goals

30%3.383.15

Over 2.5 goals

44%2.272.10

Under 2.5 goals

56%1.791.73

Over 3.5 goals

23%4.353.40

Under 3.5 goals

77%1.301.27

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

50%2.01—

Not both score (NG)

50%1.99—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

57%1.751.35

Under 7.5 corners

43%2.342.80

Over 8.5 corners

46%2.201.75

Under 8.5 corners

54%1.841.95

Over 9.5 corners

35%2.872.25

Under 9.5 corners

65%1.531.55

Over 10.5 corners

26%3.903.05

Under 10.5 corners

74%1.341.30

Over 11.5 corners

18%5.51—

Under 11.5 corners

82%1.22—

Over 12.5 corners

12%8.05—

Under 12.5 corners

88%1.14—

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.02—

Over 2.5 cards

74%1.35—

Under 2.5 cards

26%3.85—

Over 3.5 cards

55%1.831.38

Under 3.5 cards

45%2.202.70

Over 4.5 cards

36%2.801.92

Under 4.5 cards

64%1.561.78

Over 5.5 cards

21%4.78—

Under 5.5 cards

79%1.26—

Over 6.5 cards

11%8.86—

Under 6.5 cards

89%1.13—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Genoa

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 4-9

LDWLL

LARapid Bucuresti0-2

LAParma1-2

WHSudtirol1-0

DHFrosinone1-1

LHComo1-4

Fiorentina

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 18-5

LWWDW

WHSS Signa9-0

DHNapoli1-1

WHPisa3-0

WAVenezia4-2

LHTorino1-2

Head-to-head

2026-05-10

Fiorentina0 - 0Genoa

2025-11-09

Genoa2 - 2Fiorentina

2025-02-02

Fiorentina2 - 1Genoa

2024-10-31

Genoa0 - 1Fiorentina

2024-04-15

Fiorentina1 - 1Genoa

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Team comparison

Genoa

VS

Fiorentina

#131Power Index 48.2

Power Ranking

#81Power Index 55.6

€166m13th in the league

Squad value

€353m8th in the league

Daniele De Rossisince 6 Nov 2025 · 38 games · 1.18 pts/game

Head coach

Paolo Vanoli NEWsince 7 Sep 2026 · 5 games · 1.40 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

31%Market 29%

Draw (X)

28%Market 29%

Away win (2)

42%Market 42%

Over 2.5 goals

44%Market 45%

Both teams to score

50%Market: —

Expected goals

1.1 - 1.3

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Genoa 1 - 1 Fiorentina (12.9%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 112.9%
2. 0 - 111.6%
3. 1 - 09.6%
4. 0 - 08.7%
5. 1 - 28.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Fiorentina

Goals scored by Genoa

01234508.711.67.73.41.20.319.612.98.63.81.30.325.37.14.72.10.70.232.02.61.80.80.30.140.50.70.50.20.10.050.10.20.10.00.00.0

Next matches of Genoa

25/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeVenezia

28/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeJuventus

1/11/2026 · ITA.1AwayLecce

Next matches of Fiorentina

25/10/2026 · ITA.1AwayInternazionale

29/10/2026 · ITA.1HomeAtalanta

2/11/2026 · ITA.1AwaySassuolo

Our model gives Genoa win 31%, draw 28%, Fiorentina win 42%. over 2.5 goals 44%. both teams to score 50%. expected goals 1.11 - 1.33. largest gap to the market: Genoa win (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.