AFC Bournemouth vs Chelsea prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Chelsea vs AFC Bournemouth, 2026-10-10, English Premier League, kickoff 17:00 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•14:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Chelsea

VS14:00 GMT

AFC Bournemouth

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.12

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

60%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

60%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

3

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 3.5 κίτρινες cards

MODEL PROBABILITY

66%

ODDS

1.60

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 ChelseaX2 AFC Bournemouth

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Chelsea (1)	52%	52.3%	1.91	trending_flat+0.3 pp
Draw (X)	24.8%	24.3%	4.12	trending_down-0.5 pp
AFC Bournemouth (2)	23.3%	23.4%	4.28	trending_flat+0.1 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK66%

Over 3.5 κίτρινες cards

Our probability: 66%.

Odds: 1.60

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Chelsea 1 - 1 AFC Bournemouth

PROBABILITY

10.3%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 10.6Exp. cards 4.6

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Chelsea

52%1.911.83

Draw

23%4.333.85

AFC Bournemouth

25%4.064.10

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Chelsea or draw

75%1.33—

AFC Bournemouth or draw

48%2.10—

Either team wins (no draw)

77%1.30—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

82%1.221.15

Under 1.5 goals

18%5.604.50

Over 2.5 goals

60%1.661.60

Under 2.5 goals

40%2.522.30

Over 3.5 goals

38%2.632.40

Under 3.5 goals

62%1.611.55

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

60%1.65—

Not both score (NG)

40%2.53—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

78%1.281.16

Under 7.5 corners

22%4.565.00

Over 8.5 corners

69%1.461.30

Under 8.5 corners

31%3.193.40

Over 9.5 corners

58%1.711.53

Under 9.5 corners

42%2.412.37

Over 10.5 corners

48%2.081.83

Under 10.5 corners

52%1.931.83

Over 11.5 corners

38%2.622.37

Under 11.5 corners

62%1.621.53

Over 12.5 corners

29%3.403.25

Under 12.5 corners

71%1.421.33

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%13.91—

Over 2.5 cards

82%1.22—

Under 2.5 cards

18%5.62—

Over 3.5 cards

66%1.511.60

Under 3.5 cards

34%2.952.20

Over 4.5 cards

48%2.092.35

Under 4.5 cards

52%1.921.50

Over 5.5 cards

31%3.21—

Under 5.5 cards

69%1.45—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.40—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.23—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER44%

add_circleChelsea

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.04

BUILDER36%

add_circleChelsea

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.54

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Chelsea

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 13-13

WLWDL

LABrentford0-3

DHHull City2-2

WHLeeds United6-3

LAArsenal1-2

WHBrighton & Hove Albion4-3

AFC Bournemouth

Last 5: 2W 2D 1L · goals 10-6

DWDWL

LHLiverpool0-1

WAReal Sociedad2-1

DHBrentford2-2

WHLincoln City4-0

DANewcastle United2-2

Head-to-head

2025-12-30

Chelsea2 - 2AFC Bournemouth

2025-12-06

AFC Bournemouth0 - 0Chelsea

2025-01-14

Chelsea2 - 2AFC Bournemouth

2024-09-14

AFC Bournemouth0 - 1Chelsea

2024-05-19

Chelsea2 - 1AFC Bournemouth

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Team comparison

Chelsea

VS

AFC Bournemouth

#10 ▲1Power Index 79.1

Power Ranking

#21Power Index 74.1

€1.08bn3rd in the league

Squad value

€574m11th in the league

Xabi Alonsosince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.11 pts/game

Head coach

Marco Rosesince 1 Jul 2026 · 10 games · 1.50 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

52%Market 53%

Draw (X)

23%Market 24%

Away win (2)

25%Market 23%

Over 2.5 goals

60%Market 60%

Both teams to score

60%Market: —

Expected goals

1.9 - 1.2

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Chelsea 1 - 1 AFC Bournemouth (10.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.3%
2. 2 - 19.7%
3. 1 - 08.3%
4. 2 - 07.8%
5. 1 - 26.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by AFC Bournemouth

Goals scored by Chelsea

01234504.45.43.41.40.40.118.310.36.32.60.80.227.89.76.02.50.80.234.96.13.81.50.50.142.32.91.80.70.20.150.91.10.70.30.10.0

Next matches of Chelsea

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeTottenham Hotspur

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeManchester United

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwaySunderland

Next matches of AFC Bournemouth

25/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayManchester United

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeLeeds United

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayIpswich Town

Our model gives Chelsea win 52%, draw 23%, AFC Bournemouth win 25%. over 2.5 goals 60%. both teams to score 60%. expected goals 1.89 - 1.24. largest gap to the market: AFC Bournemouth win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.