Alavés vs Málaga prediction, tips and odds

Next match: Alavés vs Málaga, 2026-10-23, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Alavés

VS19:00 GMT

Málaga

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.52

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

46%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

46%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Alavés 1 - 0 Málaga

PROBABILITY

13.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.6Exp. cards 4.6

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Alavés

57%1.751.77

Draw

25%4.053.70

Málaga

18%5.544.80

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Alavés or draw

82%1.22—

Málaga or draw

43%2.34—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

72%1.391.30

Under 1.5 goals

28%3.583.25

Over 2.5 goals

46%2.172.05

Under 2.5 goals

54%1.861.78

Over 3.5 goals

25%4.053.30

Under 3.5 goals

75%1.331.30

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

46%2.15—

Not both score (NG)

54%1.87—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

70%1.44—

Under 7.5 corners

30%3.28—

Over 8.5 corners

59%1.701.42

Under 8.5 corners

41%2.422.55

Over 9.5 corners

48%2.091.78

Under 9.5 corners

52%1.921.92

Over 10.5 corners

38%2.672.25

Under 10.5 corners

62%1.601.55

Over 11.5 corners

28%3.523.00

Under 11.5 corners

72%1.401.32

Over 12.5 corners

21%4.81—

Under 12.5 corners

79%1.26—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.18—

Over 2.5 cards

83%1.21—

Under 2.5 cards

17%5.72—

Over 3.5 cards

67%1.50—

Under 3.5 cards

33%2.99—

Over 4.5 cards

48%2.07—

Under 4.5 cards

52%1.94—

Over 5.5 cards

32%3.16—

Under 5.5 cards

68%1.46—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.29—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.23—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER44%

add_circleAlavés

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.15

BUILDER41%

add_circleAlavés

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.30

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Alavés

Last 5: 0W 1D 4L · goals 3-7

LLDLL

LACelta Vigo1-2

LHAtlético Madrid1-2

DAAthletic Club0-0

LHValencia0-1

LARacing Santander1-2

Málaga

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 5-11

DLLDL

LHReal Sociedad2-5

DHEspanyol1-1

LAGetafe0-1

LHVillarreal1-3

DACelta Vigo1-1

Head-to-head

2023-05-20

Alavés2 - 1Málaga

2022-12-18

Málaga1 - 0Alavés

2018-05-06

Málaga0 - 3Alavés

2017-12-21

Alavés1 - 0Málaga

2017-03-11

Málaga1 - 2Alavés

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Team comparison

Alavés

VS

Málaga

#68Power Index 58.8

Power Ranking

#137 ▼9Power Index 47.6

€73m19th in the league

Squad value

€62m20th in the league

Quique Sánchez Floressince 3 Mar 2026 · 20 games · 1.35 pts/game

Head coach

Juan Funessince 19 Nov 2025 · 42 games · 1.67 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

57%Market 55%

Draw (X)

25%Market 25%

Away win (2)

18%Market 19%

Over 2.5 goals

46%Market 46%

Both teams to score

46%Market: —

Expected goals

1.7 - 0.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Alavés 1 - 0 Málaga (13.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 013.6%
2. 2 - 011.4%
3. 1 - 111.3%
4. 2 - 19.5%
5. 0 - 08.0%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Málaga

Goals scored by Alavés

01234508.06.72.80.80.20.0113.611.34.71.30.30.0211.49.54.01.10.20.036.45.42.20.60.10.042.72.30.90.30.10.050.90.80.30.10.00.0

Lineups

The official lineups usually come out about an hour before kickoff. This page updates when they do.

Form

Alavés

Last 5, most recent first

LLDLL

Goals per game, for / against0.6 / 1.4

Home, W-D-L (last 10)3-0-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-2-2

Málaga

Last 5, most recent first

LDLLD

Goals per game, for / against1.0 / 2.2

Home, W-D-L (last 10)0-3-2

Away, W-D-L (last 10)0-1-3

Form and team news

Alavés

0 W1 D4 L0.6 for1.4 against

Alavés have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.4 per game.

Málaga

0 W2 D3 L1.0 for2.2 against

Málaga have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in their last 5 games, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.2 per game.

Sources: team results from ESPN, absences from Transfermarkt.

Next matches of Alavés

23/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeMálaga

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayBarcelona

6/11/2026 · ESP.1AwaySevilla

Next matches of Málaga

23/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayAlavés

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayReal Betis

7/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeRacing Santander

Our model gives Alavés win 57%, draw 25%, Málaga win 18%. over 2.5 goals 46%. both teams to score 46%. expected goals 1.69 - 0.83. largest gap to the market: Alavés win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.