FC Porto vs Maritimo prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Maritimo vs FC Porto, 2026-10-10, Portuguese Primeira Liga, kickoff 20:00 Athens time

stadiumPORTUGUESE PRIMEIRA LIGA•17:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Maritimo

VS17:00 GMT

FC Porto

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.71

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

51%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

40%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 MaritimoX2 FC Porto

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Maritimo (1)	9%	9.9%	10.10	trending_up+0.9 pp
Draw (X)	17.2%	17.9%	5.58	trending_up+0.7 pp
FC Porto (2)	73.7%	72.2%	1.39	trending_down-1.5 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Maritimo 0 - 2 FC Porto

PROBABILITY

14.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.7Exp. cards 5.1

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Maritimo

9%11.0610.50

Draw

19%5.355.50

FC Porto

72%1.381.29

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Maritimo or draw

28%3.61—

FC Porto or draw

91%1.10—

Either team wins (no draw)

81%1.23—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

75%1.32—

Under 1.5 goals

25%4.08—

Over 2.5 goals

51%1.971.77

Under 2.5 goals

49%2.031.95

Over 3.5 goals

29%3.48—

Under 3.5 goals

71%1.40—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

40%2.51—

Not both score (NG)

60%1.66—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

70%1.42—

Under 7.5 corners

30%3.36—

Over 8.5 corners

60%1.68—

Under 8.5 corners

40%2.47—

Over 9.5 corners

49%2.05—

Under 9.5 corners

51%1.95—

Over 10.5 corners

38%2.61—

Under 10.5 corners

62%1.62—

Over 11.5 corners

29%3.43—

Under 11.5 corners

71%1.41—

Over 12.5 corners

21%4.67—

Under 12.5 corners

79%1.27—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

87%1.15—

Under 2.5 cards

13%7.77—

Over 3.5 cards

74%1.35—

Under 3.5 cards

26%3.85—

Over 4.5 cards

57%1.74—

Under 4.5 cards

43%2.34—

Over 5.5 cards

40%2.48—

Under 5.5 cards

60%1.68—

Over 6.5 cards

26%3.86—

Under 6.5 cards

74%1.35—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER44%

add_circleFC Porto

add_circleOver 2.5 goals

Indicative odds: 1.91

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Maritimo

Last 5: 0W 2D 3L · goals 5-11

DLLLD

DAGil Vicente1-1

LAMoreirense1-3

LHBenfica0-3

LAArouca1-2

DHAcadémico de Viseu2-2

FC Porto

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 12-5

WWLWW

WHBenfica3-1

WACasa Pia4-1

LHManchester City0-2

WHMoreirense2-1

WAAcadémico de Viseu3-0

Head-to-head

2023-02-01

Maritimo0 - 2FC Porto

2022-08-06

FC Porto5 - 1Maritimo

2022-01-30

FC Porto2 - 1Maritimo

2021-08-22

Maritimo1 - 1FC Porto

2021-02-22

Maritimo1 - 2FC Porto

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Team comparison

Maritimo

VS

FC Porto

#168 ▲20Power Index 42.9

Power Ranking

#20 ▼1Power Index 74.4

€17m18th in the league

Squad value

€472m1st in the league

Mitchell van der Gaagsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 1.22 pts/game

Head coach

Francesco Fariolisince 6 Jul 2025 · 64 games · 2.38 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

9%Market 8%

Draw (X)

19%Market 16% +3

Away win (2)

72%Market 76% -4

Over 2.5 goals

51%Market 53%

Both teams to score

40%Market: —

Expected goals

0.6 - 2.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Maritimo 0 - 2 FC Porto (14.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 0 - 214.8%
2. 0 - 114.1%
3. 0 - 310.4%
4. 1 - 28.9%
5. 1 - 18.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by FC Porto

Goals scored by Maritimo

01234506.714.114.810.45.52.314.08.48.96.23.31.421.22.52.71.91.00.430.20.50.50.40.20.140.00.10.10.10.00.050.00.00.00.00.00.0

Next matches of Maritimo

23/10/2026 · POR.1AwayVitória de Guimaraes

1/11/2026 · POR.1HomeSanta Clara

8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayEstoril

Next matches of FC Porto

24/10/2026 · POR.1AwayGil Vicente

31/10/2026 · POR.1HomeEstoril

8/11/2026 · POR.1AwayVitória de Guimaraes

Our model gives Maritimo win 9%, draw 19%, FC Porto win 72%. over 2.5 goals 51%. both teams to score 40%. expected goals 0.60 - 2.11. largest gap to the market: FC Porto win (4 points). Estimates, not guarantees.