Heart of Midlothian vs St Mirren prediction, tips and odds

Next scheduled meeting: St Mirren vs Heart of Midlothian, 5/12/2026, sco.1. Analysis and tips appear 1-2 days before kickoff.

stadiumSCOTTISH PREMIERSHIP•14:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Heart of Midlothian

VS14:00 GMT

St Mirren

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.36

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MODEL OVER 2.5

65%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

59%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.46

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Heart of MidlothianX2 St Mirren

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Heart of Midlothian (1)	65%	66.2%	1.51	trending_up+1.3 pp
Draw (X)	19.3%	19.3%	5.19	trending_flat-0.0 pp
St Mirren (2)	15.8%	14.5%	6.89	trending_down-1.2 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

Over 2.5 goals

Our probability: 65%.

Indicative odds: 1.46

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Heart of Midlothian 2 - 1 St Mirren

PROBABILITY

9.7%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Heart of Midlothian

65%1.551.46

Draw

19%5.174.90

St Mirren

16%6.226.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Heart of Midlothian or draw

84%1.19—

St Mirren or draw

35%2.82—

Either team wins (no draw)

81%1.24—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

85%1.17—

Under 1.5 goals

15%6.72—

Over 2.5 goals

65%1.53—

Under 2.5 goals

35%2.88—

Over 3.5 goals

43%2.31—

Under 3.5 goals

57%1.76—

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

59%1.69—

Not both score (NG)

41%2.45—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Heart of Midlothian

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 10-5

WWWLD

DAKilmarnock1-1

LAFalkirk1-2

WAStenhousemuir3-0

WHDundee2-1

WAHibernian3-1

St Mirren

Last 5: 1W 1D 3L · goals 5-9

DWLLL

LHDundee United0-3

LARangers0-1

LHCeltic1-2

WAKilmarnock1-0

DHMotherwell3-3

Head-to-head

2026-02-03

St Mirren1 - 0Heart of Midlothian

2026-01-14

Heart of Midlothian2 - 0St Mirren

2025-10-29

St Mirren2 - 2Heart of Midlothian

2025-08-16

St Mirren1 - 1Heart of Midlothian

2025-02-26

Heart of Midlothian3 - 1St Mirren

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Team comparison

Heart of Midlothian

VS

St Mirren

#114 ▼15Power Index 50.6

Power Ranking

#221 ▼2Power Index 34.3

€25m3rd in the league

Squad value

€8.8m8th in the league

Wouter Vranckensince 1 Jul 2026 · 18 games · 1.56 pts/game

Head coach

Craig McLeishsince 12 Mar 2026 · 17 games · 1.00 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

65%Market 67%

Draw (X)

19%Market 18%

Away win (2)

16%Market 15%

Over 2.5 goals

65%Market: —

Both teams to score

59%Market: —

Expected goals

2.3 - 1.1

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Heart of Midlothian 2 - 1 St Mirren (9.7%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 19.7%
2. 2 - 09.1%
3. 1 - 18.5%
4. 1 - 08.0%
5. 3 - 17.4%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by St Mirren

Goals scored by Heart of Midlothian

01234503.53.72.00.70.20.018.08.54.51.60.40.129.19.75.21.90.50.137.07.44.01.40.40.144.04.32.30.80.20.051.82.01.00.40.10.0

Next matches of Heart of Midlothian

25/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayMotherwell

28/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeRangers

5/11/2026 · UEFA.EUROPA.CONFAwayFC Thun

Next matches of St Mirren

24/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeDundee

28/10/2026 · SCO.1HomeHibernian

31/10/2026 · SCO.1AwayMotherwell

Our model gives Heart of Midlothian win 65%, draw 19%, St Mirren win 16%. over 2.5 goals 65%. both teams to score 59%. expected goals 2.29 - 1.07. largest gap to the market: Heart of Midlothian win (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.