Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Mainz vs Bayer Leverkusen, 2026-10-10, German Bundesliga, kickoff 16:30 Athens time

stadiumGERMAN BUNDESLIGA•13:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Mainz

VS13:30 GMT

Bayer Leverkusen

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.21

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

62%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

64%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

0

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match.

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

Market drift appears after the second odds snapshot of the day.

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

NO PICK

No pick passes our filters for this match. We publish a pick only when the odds and the model probability clear our thresholds.

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Mainz 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen

PROBABILITY

10.3%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.7Exp. cards 4.3

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Mainz

32%3.163.00

Draw

24%4.213.60

Bayer Leverkusen

45%2.242.15

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Mainz or draw

55%1.80—

Bayer Leverkusen or draw

68%1.46—

Either team wins (no draw)

76%1.31—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

83%1.201.14

Under 1.5 goals

17%5.984.60

Over 2.5 goals

62%1.611.55

Under 2.5 goals

38%2.642.35

Over 3.5 goals

40%2.512.30

Under 3.5 goals

60%1.661.63

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

64%1.57—

Not both score (NG)

36%2.75—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

71%1.41—

Under 7.5 corners

29%3.41—

Over 8.5 corners

60%1.661.42

Under 8.5 corners

40%2.502.60

Over 9.5 corners

49%2.031.73

Under 9.5 corners

51%1.972.00

Over 10.5 corners

39%2.582.20

Under 10.5 corners

61%1.631.60

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.382.85

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.421.35

Over 12.5 corners

22%4.59—

Under 12.5 corners

78%1.28—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

91%1.09—

Under 1.5 cards

9%11.75—

Over 2.5 cards

79%1.26—

Under 2.5 cards

21%4.83—

Over 3.5 cards

62%1.621.65

Under 3.5 cards

38%2.622.10

Over 4.5 cards

43%2.322.45

Under 4.5 cards

57%1.761.45

Over 5.5 cards

27%3.71—

Under 5.5 cards

73%1.37—

Over 6.5 cards

15%6.49—

Under 6.5 cards

85%1.18—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER38%

add_circleBayer Leverkusen

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.41

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Mainz

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 13-6

DWLWW

WASV Waldhof Mannheim3-0

WABorussia Mönchengladbach4-3

LHEintracht Frankfurt1-3

WAHamburg SV5-0

DHSC Paderborn 070-0

Bayer Leverkusen

Last 5: 3W 1D 1L · goals 12-5

LWDWW

WHRB Leipzig2-0

WHNK Celje2-0

DAFC Augsburg2-2

WH1. FC Union Berlin4-0

LASV Elversberg2-3

Head-to-head

2026-02-28

Bayer Leverkusen1 - 1Mainz

2025-10-18

Mainz3 - 4Bayer Leverkusen

2025-05-17

Mainz2 - 2Bayer Leverkusen

2025-01-14

Bayer Leverkusen1 - 0Mainz

2024-02-23

Bayer Leverkusen2 - 1Mainz

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Team comparison

Mainz

VS

Bayer Leverkusen

#69 ▲1Power Index 58.5

Power Ranking

#18 ▲2Power Index 75.3

€160m10th in the league

Squad value

€520m3rd in the league

Urs Fischersince 7 Dec 2025 · 34 games · 1.71 pts/game

Head coach

Carles Martínezsince 1 Jul 2026 · 9 games · 2.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

32%Market 31%

Draw (X)

24%Market 25%

Away win (2)

45%Market 44%

Over 2.5 goals

62%Market 61%

Both teams to score

64%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.8

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Mainz 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen (10.3%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 110.3%
2. 1 - 29.1%
3. 2 - 17.5%
4. 0 - 17.1%
5. 2 - 26.6%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Bayer Leverkusen

Goals scored by Mainz

01234504.17.16.23.71.60.615.910.39.15.32.30.824.37.56.63.81.70.632.13.63.21.90.80.340.71.31.20.70.30.150.20.40.30.20.10.0

Next matches of Mainz

24/10/2026 · GER.1HomeWerder Bremen

30/10/2026 · GER.1AwaySV Elversberg

7/11/2026 · GER.1HomeBayern Munich

Next matches of Bayer Leverkusen

25/10/2026 · GER.1AwayTSG Hoffenheim

31/10/2026 · GER.1HomeVfB Stuttgart

8/11/2026 · GER.1AwayFC Cologne

Our model gives Mainz win 32%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen win 45%. over 2.5 goals 62%. both teams to score 64%. expected goals 1.45 - 1.75. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.