Aston Villa vs Brentford prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Aston Villa vs Brentford, 2026-10-10, English Premier League, kickoff 17:00 Athens time

stadiumENGLISH PREMIER LEAGUE•14:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

--:--:--

HOME

Aston Villa

VS14:00 GMT

Brentford

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.99

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

57%

sync_alt

BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

60%

query_stats

ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

2

model_training

ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

65%

ODDS

1.50

All Tips

query_stats

Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Aston VillaX2 Brentford

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Aston Villa (1)	34.7%	37.4%	2.67	trending_up+2.8 pp
Draw (X)	27.2%	26.5%	3.77	trending_down-0.7 pp
Brentford (2)	38.1%	36%	2.78	trending_down-2.1 pp

token

Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK65%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 65%.

Odds: 1.50

scatter_plot

MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Aston Villa 1 - 1 Brentford

PROBABILITY

11.2%

table_chart

Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 3.9

swords

Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Aston Villa

36%2.782.75

Draw

25%4.003.50

Brentford

39%2.562.50

shield

Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Aston Villa or draw

61%1.64—

Brentford or draw

64%1.56—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.33—

sports_soccer

Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

80%1.251.18

Under 1.5 goals

20%5.074.05

Over 2.5 goals

57%1.741.67

Under 2.5 goals

43%2.352.20

Over 3.5 goals

35%2.852.50

Under 3.5 goals

65%1.541.50

sync_alt

Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

60%1.65—

Not both score (NG)

40%2.53—

flag

Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

72%1.401.22

Under 7.5 corners

28%3.514.00

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.40

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.562.75

Over 9.5 corners

50%1.991.66

Under 9.5 corners

50%2.012.10

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.512.10

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.661.66

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.282.62

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.441.44

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.443.75

Under 12.5 corners

77%1.291.25

style

Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

89%1.12—

Under 1.5 cards

11%9.26—

Over 2.5 cards

75%1.341.30

Under 2.5 cards

25%3.933.05

Over 3.5 cards

55%1.811.75

Under 3.5 cards

45%2.241.95

Over 4.5 cards

36%2.75—

Under 4.5 cards

64%1.57—

Over 5.5 cards

21%4.66—

Under 5.5 cards

79%1.27—

Over 6.5 cards

12%8.57—

Under 6.5 cards

88%1.13—

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Aston Villa

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 13-8

WLWWW

WASevilla3-1

WATottenham Hotspur3-2

WACoventry City3-1

LHNottingham Forest1-2

WAClub Brugge3-2

Brentford

Last 5: 2W 3D 0L · goals 9-5

DDDWW

WHChelsea3-0

WAReading2-1

DAAFC Bournemouth2-2

DHSunderland1-1

DALeeds United1-1

Head-to-head

2026-02-01

Aston Villa0 - 1Brentford

2025-09-16

Brentford1 - 1Aston Villa

2025-08-23

Brentford1 - 0Aston Villa

2025-03-08

Brentford0 - 1Aston Villa

2024-12-04

Aston Villa3 - 1Brentford

compare_arrows

Team comparison

Aston Villa

VS

Brentford

#14 ▲2Power Index 77.4

Power Ranking

#17Power Index 75.6

€573m12th in the league

Squad value

€585m9th in the league

Unai Emerysince 1 Nov 2022 · 207 games · 1.83 pts/game

Head coach

Keith Andrewssince 1 Jul 2025 · 54 games · 1.56 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

36%Market 35%

Draw (X)

25%Market 27%

Away win (2)

39%Market 38%

Over 2.5 goals

57%Market 57%

Both teams to score

60%Market: —

Expected goals

1.5 - 1.5

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Aston Villa 1 - 1 Brentford (11.2%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.2%
2. 1 - 28.6%
3. 2 - 18.2%
4. 0 - 17.7%
5. 1 - 07.3%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Brentford

Goals scored by Aston Villa

01234505.07.75.93.01.20.417.311.28.64.41.70.525.48.26.33.21.20.432.64.03.11.60.60.240.91.51.10.60.20.150.30.40.30.20.10.0

Next matches of Aston Villa

24/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeManchester City

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeFulham

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayManchester United

Next matches of Brentford

25/10/2026 · ENG.1AwayHull City

31/10/2026 · ENG.1HomeNottingham Forest

8/11/2026 · ENG.1AwayBrighton & Hove Albion

Our model gives Aston Villa win 36%, draw 25%, Brentford win 39%. over 2.5 goals 57%. both teams to score 60%. expected goals 1.46 - 1.53. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.