Málaga vs Real Sociedad prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Málaga vs Real Sociedad, 2026-10-18, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 19:30 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•16:30 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Málaga

VS16:30 GMT

Real Sociedad

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

2.82

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MODEL OVER 2.5

54%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

56%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

5

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Under 3.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

70%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 MálagaX2 Real Sociedad

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Málaga (1)	28.2%	29%	3.45	trending_up+0.8 pp
Draw (X)	27.3%	26.6%	3.77	trending_down-0.8 pp
Real Sociedad (2)	44.5%	44.5%	2.25	trending_flat-0.0 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK70%

Under 3.5 goals

Our probability: 70%.

Odds: 1.40

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Málaga 1 - 1 Real Sociedad

PROBABILITY

11.6%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 4.6

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Málaga

28%3.563.40

Draw

25%3.963.50

Real Sociedad

47%2.142.15

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Málaga or draw

53%1.88—

Real Sociedad or draw

72%1.39—

Either team wins (no draw)

75%1.34—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

78%1.291.20

Under 1.5 goals

22%4.474.20

Over 2.5 goals

54%1.871.73

Under 2.5 goals

46%2.162.10

Over 3.5 goals

31%3.192.65

Under 3.5 goals

69%1.461.45

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

56%1.77—

Not both score (NG)

44%2.30—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

72%1.40—

Under 7.5 corners

28%3.51—

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.45

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.572.50

Over 9.5 corners

50%1.991.75

Under 9.5 corners

50%2.011.95

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.512.25

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.661.57

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.282.95

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.441.33

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.44—

Under 12.5 corners

77%1.29—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

83%1.21—

Under 2.5 cards

17%5.85—

Over 3.5 cards

67%1.491.38

Under 3.5 cards

33%3.052.70

Over 4.5 cards

49%2.041.92

Under 4.5 cards

51%1.961.78

Over 5.5 cards

32%3.10—

Under 5.5 cards

68%1.48—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.16—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.24—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER37%

add_circleReal Sociedad

add_circleOver 1.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.50

history

Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Málaga

Last 5: 0W 3D 2L · goals 3-6

DDLLD

DHEspanyol1-1

LAGetafe0-1

LHVillarreal1-3

DACelta Vigo1-1

DHLevante0-0

Real Sociedad

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 8-10

LLWWD

DAUnion St.-Gilloise1-1

WHDeportivo3-2

WAValencia3-2

LHAFC Bournemouth1-2

LHAtlético Madrid0-3

Head-to-head

2024-01-07

Málaga0 - 1Real Sociedad

2018-04-22

Málaga2 - 0Real Sociedad

2017-12-10

Real Sociedad0 - 2Málaga

2017-05-14

Real Sociedad2 - 2Málaga

2017-01-16

Málaga0 - 2Real Sociedad

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Team comparison

Málaga

VS

Real Sociedad

#137 ▼9Power Index 47.6

Power Ranking

#46 ▲3Power Index 64.6

€62m20th in the league

Squad value

€292m5th in the league

Juan Funessince 19 Nov 2025 · 42 games · 1.67 pts/game

Head coach

Pellegrino Matarazzosince 21 Dec 2025 · 37 games · 1.65 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

28%Market 28%

Draw (X)

25%Market 27%

Away win (2)

47%Market 45%

Over 2.5 goals

54%Market 56%

Both teams to score

56%Market: —

Expected goals

1.2 - 1.6

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Málaga 1 - 1 Real Sociedad (11.6%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 1 - 111.6%
2. 0 - 19.6%
3. 1 - 29.4%
4. 0 - 27.8%
5. 1 - 07.2%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Real Sociedad

Goals scored by Málaga

01234505.99.67.84.21.70.617.211.69.45.12.00.724.37.05.63.01.20.431.72.82.31.20.50.240.50.80.70.40.10.050.10.20.20.10.00.0

Next matches of Málaga

23/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayAlavés

31/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayReal Betis

7/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeRacing Santander

Next matches of Real Sociedad

25/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeLevante

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayAthletic Club

8/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeRayo Vallecano

Our model gives Málaga win 28%, draw 25%, Real Sociedad win 47%. over 2.5 goals 54%. both teams to score 56%. expected goals 1.20 - 1.62. largest gap to the market: draw (2 points). Estimates, not guarantees.