Real Madrid vs Sevilla prediction, tips and odds

Latest match: Real Madrid vs Sevilla, 2026-10-18, Spanish LALIGA, kickoff 22:00 Athens time

stadiumSPANISH LALIGA•19:00 GMT

scheduleKICKOFF IN:

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HOME

Real Madrid

VS19:00 GMT

Sevilla

AWAY

monitoring

PROJECTED TOTAL GOALS

3.44

sports_soccer

MODEL OVER 2.5

67%

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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE

48%

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ODDS SNAPSHOTS TODAY

4

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ALGORITHMIC PICK

Over 2.5 goals

MODEL PROBABILITY

67%

ODDS

1.40

All Tips

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Odds Telemetry & Market Drift

Market implied probability for 1X2 across today's odds snapshots.

1 Real MadridX2 Sevilla

SELECTION	FIRST	LATEST	FAIR ODDS NOW	DRIFT
Real Madrid (1)	76.8%	78.4%	1.28	trending_up+1.6 pp
Draw (X)	14.6%	13.7%	7.31	trending_down-0.9 pp
Sevilla (2)	8.6%	8%	12.53	trending_down-0.6 pp

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Algorithmic Value

FREE

PRIMARY PICK67%

Over 2.5 goals

Our probability: 67%.

Odds: 1.40

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MOST LIKELY SCORE (POISSON)

Real Madrid 2 - 0 Sevilla

PROBABILITY

11.8%

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Full market board

Model probability for every market. Fair = 1 / model probability. Odds appear only where a real price was found; “—” means no price available, not a recommendation.

Exp. corners 9.8Exp. cards 4.6

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Match result (1X2)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Real Madrid

79%1.271.24

Draw

14%7.216.50

Sevilla

7%13.6311.00

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Double chance

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Real Madrid or draw

93%1.08—

Sevilla or draw

21%4.72—

Either team wins (no draw)

86%1.16—

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Total goals

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 goals

86%1.161.11

Under 1.5 goals

14%7.105.30

Over 2.5 goals

67%1.501.40

Under 2.5 goals

33%3.002.70

Over 3.5 goals

45%2.232.03

Under 3.5 goals

55%1.821.78

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Both teams to score

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Both score (GG)

48%2.06—

Not both score (NG)

52%1.94—

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Corners

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 7.5 corners

72%1.40—

Under 7.5 corners

28%3.52—

Over 8.5 corners

61%1.641.37

Under 8.5 corners

39%2.572.75

Over 9.5 corners

50%1.991.70

Under 9.5 corners

50%2.012.02

Over 10.5 corners

40%2.512.10

Under 10.5 corners

60%1.661.65

Over 11.5 corners

30%3.282.75

Under 11.5 corners

70%1.441.37

Over 12.5 corners

23%4.44—

Under 12.5 corners

77%1.29—

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Cards (yellow + red)

SELECTIONMODELFAIRODDS

Over 1.5 cards

93%1.08—

Under 1.5 cards

7%14.29—

Over 2.5 cards

83%1.21—

Under 2.5 cards

17%5.78—

Over 3.5 cards

67%1.501.60

Under 3.5 cards

33%3.022.20

Over 4.5 cards

49%2.052.35

Under 4.5 cards

51%1.951.50

Over 5.5 cards

32%3.13—

Under 5.5 cards

68%1.47—

Over 6.5 cards

19%5.23—

Under 6.5 cards

81%1.24—

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Bet builder ideas

Two legs of the same match. Joint probability from the model score grid. Odds are indicative, not a bookmaker quote.

BUILDER40%

add_circleReal Madrid

add_circleUnder 3.5 goals

Indicative odds: 2.20

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Team form & head-to-head

Last five results from the official feed. Form is context, the model probabilities above already account for team strength.

Real Madrid

Last 5: 4W 0D 1L · goals 13-8

WWLWW

WAAS Roma4-3

WHVillarreal1-0

LAAtlético Madrid1-2

WAElche3-2

WHRayo Vallecano4-1

Sevilla

Last 5: 2W 1D 2L · goals 7-9

WWLLD

DALevante3-3

LHAston Villa1-3

LHBarcelona1-3

WADeportivo1-0

WHValencia1-0

Head-to-head

2026-05-17

Sevilla0 - 1Real Madrid

2025-12-20

Real Madrid2 - 0Sevilla

2025-05-18

Sevilla0 - 2Real Madrid

2024-12-22

Real Madrid4 - 2Sevilla

2024-02-25

Real Madrid1 - 0Sevilla

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Team comparison

Real Madrid

VS

Sevilla

#6Power Index 83.0

Power Ranking

#70 ▲1Power Index 58.1

€1.50bn1st in the league

Squad value

€177m9th in the league

José Mourinhosince 1 Jul 2026 · 11 games · 2.45 pts/game

Head coach

Luis Garcíasince 24 Mar 2026 · 18 games · 1.44 pts/game

Sources: AI Goal Lab Power Ranking (weekly), squad values and coaches from Transfermarkt. Background facts; the model probabilities do not change because of them. Full ranking

analytics

What our model says vs what the market says

Big number: the chance our model gives. The dark tick on the bar and the small line show the chance implied by bookmaker odds. If they match, the odds look fair. Estimates, not guarantees.

Home win (1)

79%Market 80%

Draw (X)

14%Market 13%

Away win (2)

7%Market 7%

Over 2.5 goals

67%Market 68%

Both teams to score

48%Market: —

Expected goals

2.7 - 0.7

Most likely final scores

Most likely: Real Madrid 2 - 0 Sevilla (11.8%). Out of 100 matches like this, this is how many would end with each score.

1. 2 - 011.8%
2. 3 - 010.6%
3. 1 - 08.7%
4. 2 - 18.6%
5. 3 - 17.8%

Every score

Each box is one final score. Darker green means more likely.

Goals scored by Sevilla

Goals scored by Real Madrid

01234503.22.30.90.20.00.018.76.42.30.60.10.0211.88.63.10.80.10.0310.67.82.80.70.10.047.25.31.90.50.10.053.92.81.00.30.00.0

Next matches of Real Madrid

25/10/2026 · ESP.1AwayBarcelona

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayRacing Santander

7/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayValencia

Next matches of Sevilla

26/10/2026 · ESP.1HomeOsasuna

1/11/2026 · ESP.1AwayGetafe

6/11/2026 · ESP.1HomeAlavés

Our model gives Real Madrid win 79%, draw 14%, Sevilla win 7%. over 2.5 goals 67%. both teams to score 48%. expected goals 2.71 - 0.73. largest gap to the market: draw (1 points). Estimates, not guarantees.